This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks for Sunday, March 2
Texas showed out for the boys one time against Texas Tech last night with a 10-5 victory after being up 10-1. With the Longhorns delivering in the late window, the Saturday slate was a perfectly pristine 5-0 (+5.31u), good for the first sweep of my season.
The first two Sundays haven’t been bad, but definitely have not gone our way. There seem to be some favorable matchups out there today, though.
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Oklahoma State Cowboys (+114) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-145) | Total: 12.5
It’s the final day down in Houston at the Astros Classic. I know for whatever weird reason (usually it’s financial), the ‘Stros have recently changed the name of their stadium from Minute Maid Park to something completely awful that I just don’t feel like looking up. It’s always going to be Minute Maid Park to me, just like the Steelers’ home will always be Heinz Field.
There have been some really good games in this tournament over the weekend, with the defending champion Tennessee Volunteers strutting their stuff.
A team that’s been trying to find it and having a hot/cold flip flop every game has been OK State.
The main reason for their struggles has been the disappearance of their offense (just six runs in two games this week). Meanwhile, Mississippi State has yet to beat anybody resembling a Division 1 program. But I do believe there is a look in this game for a pair of 1-1 teams trying to leave Houston 2-1.
The Cowboys took down the #1 Texas A&M Aggies last night 4-0, which on paper sounds a lot better than it really is considering the Aggies are pathetic right now. The Pokes’ pitching in both the rotation and bullpen has come to play, allowing just five runs in two games in H-Town. Speaking of pitching, we have unofficial confirmation that Hunter Watkins is going for OK State.
Watkins is off to a tough start this year (8 IP, 11 hits, 7 ER), but it’s only been two starts and Texas beat him up on opening weekend. He’s a 6’9″ behemoth Grand Canyon transfer who was solid last season. In 18 appearances (four starts), Watkins threw 47 innings, 47 K/13 BB ratio for a 3.83 ERA and 3.41 SIERA. His X-Factor pitch is a fall-off-the-table curve ball that completely disappears from hitters.
He’ll see a Mississippi State lineup that is probably nowhere near as good as their current numbers tell us. A team batting .308 with 15 homers and 77 runs on paper looks like a wagon, but when you look closer and see most of the damage as come against Manhattan and Missouri State, then you take it with a grain of salt. Don’t get me wrong the Bulldogs have a few good offensive players like Houston transfer Ace Reese (.324 average, 1.270 OPS, five homers), Nolan Stevens (.364 average, 1.122 OPS, two homers), among a few others starting out hot.
For Watkins to succeed today, it all starts with eliminating the free passes (I feel like I say the same thing every time). State’s offensive philosophy under HC Chris Lemonis is to get on base and cause chaos by running, small ball, hit and runs, etc. They’re already 17-17 on stolen bases, so make them earn their way on. Another staple of a Lemonis offense is striking out like Nolan Ryan is on the mound. That’s something I couldn’t stand about them last year, but for this they will swing and miss…a lot. Make them earn their way on and keep that ball low, they’ll have a tough time.
The Pokes lineup is a very dangerous unit, but like almost every other team in the country who has played even remotely good competition, they’re off to a slow start. Only Tennessee, LSU, Texas and a few other schools have come out hot. It’s a deep and loaded offense led by my Golden Spikes portfolio cornerstone, Nolan Schubart. He was batting .455 coming into the weekend, but an 0-7 mini-slide has torpedoed that average almost 100 points (that seems fair). The power has yet to arrive for the guy with maybe the most raw power but it’s coming sooner than later.
The lineup is six or seven guys deep, it would take too long to name them all, but Garrett Shull and Colin Bruggerman (both 1.100 OPS or better) have been dazzling thus far. Like a lot of college offenses the problems come with the strikeouts. As a team, OK state has struck out 108 times in just NINE games. Yeah bro, I wish I was joking. Their swings are too long and it looks like they’re trying to push an oar through the zone, but in any case, they’re going to be a top offense in the country.
Stone Simmons will toe the hill for Miss State. Though he started at Furman in 2020, he’s only pitched 57.1 career innings, missing all of 2023 and 2024 (Tommy John). Simmons has earned his way into the Sunday role for Hail State, a role that was occupied last season by one of my all-time favorites and big incubator guy, Jurrangelo Cijntje. Oh, do I miss him. Anyway, Simmons has been good to start the season with seven innings, one run, but he’ll be making just his seventh start of his career. And considering it’s his third start since he transferred to Miss State… in 2021, I’d say it’s the best offense he’s seen.
Both teams don’t ooze confidence or assurance right now, but at least the Pokes have played legit competition to start the year. The lineup is lethal and the pitching has high octane arms. More importantly, they’re a little bit more experienced than their opponent. The stranger part is you are getting them at plus money on a neutral field when there’s no big pitching advantage. I gotta side with OK State here.
Pick: OK State ML +114 (DK)
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