Late Friday night, after the Las Vegas Raiders shook up the quarterback market by acquiring Geno Smith from the Seattle Seahawks, a high-ranking AFC executive was mentally scrolling through potential landing spots for Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders when he delivered a note of caution.
“I wouldn’t cross the Raiders off yet,” he said. “Let’s see what happens between now and [the draft].”
This is a lesson that was learned across the NFL last season. The Atlanta Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a massive deal in free agency, leading virtually everyone inside the league to remove them from the 2024 draft’s quarterback matrix. Then the Falcons shocked the world and selected Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 overall pick, and the message to the rest of the NFL became clear: When a team is desperate to resolve a quarterback problem, all bets are off when it comes to the limits of their pursuit. Especially when the owner of the franchise is arguably the most desperate person in the equation.
For now, that’s what keeps Sanders in play in Las Vegas, adding to the growing mystery of his draft stock — which has been speculated anywhere from the No. 2 overall pick, to sliding out of the first round entirely. With that in mind, I polled 12 NFL talent evaluators, including general managers, heads of player personnel, heads of football operations and others, to share their thoughts on where Shedeur Sanders’ value stands heading into Colorado’s pro day, which is slated to take place as part of the broader Big 12 pro days between March 18-21.
The key takeaways …
Don’t forget what happened with the Falcons and Penix last offseason
An NFC general manager spelled out a new normal when it comes to quarterback talent and NFL teams that are willing to throw everything at the problem: You can’t predict anything anymore. The Falcons made the unthinkable strategy more plausible when they signed Cousins to a massive contract, then drafted Penix eighth overall, and then blew up their Cousins deal by benching him late in the season. That leans into the AFC evaluator’s point about the Raiders and Sanders. Just because they traded for Geno Smith — and even if they give Smith a new contract — you can’t be certain the Raiders won’t take Sanders with the sixth overall pick and set their quarterback table the same way the Falcons did last season.
Predictability and logic are out the window. NFL teams now have to assume that every option could be exercised, no matter the cost. And that includes on the collegiate level, with quarterbacks now instantly changing the landscape by entering the transfer portal and also weighing NIL money in their draft decision.
As the NFC general manager put it: “It’s tough to guess where any quarterbacks go these days. The planet seemed shocked when Atlanta picked a quarterback last year. And people were surprised when Carson Beck chose [to transfer to Miami] instead of going to the NFL. And Quinn Ewers chose the NFL over NIL.”
That reality keeps Sanders potentially in play for Las Vegas. And to that point, multiple evaluators pointed to watching for markers with the Raiders over the next seven weeks. What will Geno Smith’s contract extension look like? Where could the Raiders exit the deal with moderate salary cap pain? Who do they send to Colorado’s pro day? If it’s offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and quarterbacks coach Greg Olson, that’s going to raise eyebrows. Or does the team do what the Falcons did with Penix late in the draft process last offseason — when they flew out key personnel and worked out Penix even after signing Cousins? If the Raiders work Sanders out or even bring him to Las Vegas for a visit, that’s also going to raise antennas. For any teams that are in on Sanders, all of this will be tracked and the Raiders will remain on the radar.
The negative buzz about Sanders’ personality can — and will — be distorted
One longtime evaluator made an interesting point about this year’s combine: More than ever, he’s hearing grousing about players who have earned significant NIL money seeming less pressed about their draft process. And that’s resulting in some negative opinions about players seeming entitled or arrogant.
“Some guys have already gotten money and they may not feel like the future of their lives is hanging on interviews with teams anymore, or they might even think they’ve already ‘made it,’” he said. “I can see more of that since NIL has become bigger and bigger. And that attitude really pisses some people off. So I wasn’t shocked when I saw [the reporting] that Shedeur was supposedly arrogant or not connected in interviews. Personally, I didn’t feel like that. But I also know that there are [people in the NFL] who are starting to automatically think it’s NIL type of entitlement if a kid comes in and is maybe a little overconfident or cocky in a meeting.”
Another evaluator even shared some of the titles that are starting to get more prevalent during the draft process.
“I’ve heard the ’NIL Babies’ and ‘Entitlement Era’ and ‘Generation Opt-Out,’” he said. “But it can cut both ways, too. There was a time when I had to ask the question, ‘What’s going to happen with [a player] when he gets a bunch of money?’ Now we see what’s going to happen. They show us. Some kids, you sit down with them and find out they haven’t touched a dime of their NIL money and it’s all in the bank. Others, you see it’s all been spent on cars and jewelry or whatever. So now you know, ‘OK, this is how these guys are going to react to having money. Some are going to save it, some are going to spend it on necklaces and watches and cars.’ But we don’t have to ask that question anymore. They show us. If that’s something that’s important to you in your draft evaluation — and it’s not important for everyone — now you have that piece of information.”
While some evaluators are reticent to say it, others will admit that money can skew how they view a quarterback. One evaluator said he notes if a quarterback is a “country club kid” and has had money his entire life, and a lot of personal coaching, and been given everything to make his path easier. He also notes if a player has had to struggle through adversity of being a “have-not” and fight for every inch of progress without having a family that could send him to every camp in the summer or have him work with expensive quarterback clinics.
“I’m OK saying it: I love it when I meet a [quarterback] that has a little edge because he was never the first dog at the bowl,” the evaluator said. “To me, that’s a guy that will fight his ass off, because that’s what he has always had to do.”
Clearly, some of this gets filtered through racial distortion, too. In all directions. Last year, Caleb Williams having a lot of NIL money and showing off the luxuries it provided on his social media channels irked some people. Meanwhile, one evaluator noted that Drake Maye “drives the same old truck he’s had for years.” There was no denying the racial residue of it — which comes out in some draft evaluations every year. Some are hard to see, others are in plain sight.
Sanders being the son of a famous NFL father, having a lot of NIL wealth, showing off that wealth while playing for that NFL father in college — it’s impossible to deny that it has some impact on how some people in the NFL system, as well as the media, look at him. And that can also become a distortion field for how his stock is viewed.
As one scout put it, “Sometimes a guy just rubs people the wrong way for whatever reason, and you’ll talk s*** about him. But if he’s a good football player, whether you like him or not as a personality doesn’t mean s***. That’s just a small part of the picture. You better give a fair evaluation, because an All-Pro is an All-Pro. If you dinged him in a report because you didn’t like him and he’s a baller, you’re going to end up fired.”
With than in mind, the assessments of Sanders amongst the 12 evaluators went in all directions. All agreed that strictly from a talent and ceiling perspective, he was a notch below Miami quarterback Cam Ward. But there were differing opinions on intangibles.
Some thought Sanders’ toughness and aspects of his leadership were superior to Ward. Others thought his smarts and having already mastered a true pro-style offense made him very attractive as a prospect. But none seemed to have any clear read on his place in the draft. Partially because of disagreement on his ceiling, and partially because they don’t know how the desperation factor will impact teams with a severe need at quarterback.
Some of those thoughts …
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“I could see him going top 10, and also see him falling out of the first round.”
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“There will be teams who stay true to their second- and third-round grades, and there will be those who cave to their need and the pressure of being called out by [Deion Sanders] if he’s not in their top five. Think of it this way: The two greatest quarterbacks in SWAC [Southwestern Athletic Conference] history are Doug Williams and Steve McNair, and he’s not close to either one in any category, except hype.”
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“People act like there’s a gulf between Ward, Shedeur and the rest. In truth, Ward is overrated as well. So in reality — cold harsh truth — [the quarterbacks] should start going in the late first, through about the fourth round, including Ward, Shedeur [Jaxson] Dart, [Tyler] Shough, [Kyle] McCord, [Jalen] Milroe, [Dillon] Gabriel.”
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“The tape is fine, but there’s really nothing special about him as a prospect — and he’s got the ego of a top-tier dude.”
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“I don’t think any of these quarterbacks are top-10 picks.”
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“I’ve heard anything from first- to third-round grades.”
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“Some teams, scouts and people have their reservations on Sanders as a player, some as a personality. There are a lot of layers of what led to his success. I think he can be successful if you have talent around him. There’s some things I wish he had handled differently, but I will say this: The kid took some shots this year and continued to play. He showed toughness and competed.”
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“With as many teams that need quarterbacks, I’d be surprised to see him fall to the second round.”
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“I don’t see why Cleveland would take him at [the second pick] when you can probably get him with the second pick in the second round or trade into the bottom of the first for him.”
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“He’s the 3-R’s: Right team, right coaches, right system. Bo Nix needed that [Sean Payton fit] to have success out of the chute. When that right fit works, it can really work. But all things equal, you start at zero and want big frame, big arm and big [athletic] profile. Shedeur doesn’t check all those boxes, so it matters more for him to find the exact right fit. He can’t just go anywhere. Andrew Luck could have gone anywhere. Lamar Jackson, in my opinion, could have gone anywhere. None of these quarterbacks are anything remotely close to that.”
Two evaluators were simply exasperated by the noise when it came to where Sanders fits in the draft.
“Depends who you talk to. He’s a bit polarizing,” one said.
“It’s too volatile and it’s hard to believe what’s true,” added another.
In one sentence? It’s a mystery. And in a way, it’s really just started, because we haven’t seen Sanders throw a single meaningful pass for NFL evaluators since this all started. That will change in a couple weeks at Colorado’s pro day — which promises to either deliver some clarity, or simply raise the volume on an argument that’s seeming to get more heated by the week.
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