Mark Pope made history in his first season as the Kentucky head basketball coach. Along with all of the highs, there were a few lows sprinkled in, finishing 21-10 with a 10-8 record in SEC play. For Kentucky standards, those numbers feel a bit underwhelming, thanks to the strength of the SEC.
These Cats clearly have a high ceiling, but the floor can bottom out against the right opponent. We can use this mixed bag of success to see what it means for Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament hopes.
How Others with Eight Top 15 Wins Finished
The victory over Missouri was Kentucky’s eighth Top 15 win of the season, extending a school record and tying 1993 Indiana and 1979 Duke for the most Top 15 wins in a single college basketball season. Those two teams share one thing in common: The previous year they played in the Final Four.
Jim Spanarkel’s squad lost to Kentucky in the 1978 National Championship game. A year later, they were upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by St. John’s. Indiana lost in the 1992 Final Four to Duke. They made it to the Elite Eight in ’93, where they lost to the Kansas Jayhawks.
Using this small sample, the results range from First Round loss to the Elite Eight.
Comparing the Kentucky NCAA Tournament Resume
Bart Torvik’s database allows you to compare each team’s resume to other teams in the past. It uses NET rankings, power rankings, and a few other advanced metrics to create this formula that projects Kentucky to be a No. 3 seed, right on line with current bracketology. Unfortunately, none of Kentucky’s similar predecessors made it past the Sweet 16.
You remember the 2012 Indiana team well. Their run was ended by Kentucky with a high-scoring affair in the Sweet 16. The recent Baylor teams were trendy Final Four picks who were upset by teams who made deep runs, Clemson and Creighton. The bracket opened up for the 2017 Bears, until they were shell-shocked by South Carolina in the Sweet 16.
Teams with Similar Efficiency Profiles to Kentucky
Instead of looking at the opponents they beat, Torvik also has a tool that compares Kentucky’s efficiency ratings to others in the past. For years, there was a certain KenPom standard shared shortly after Selection Sunday. “A team has to have a Top 50 Offense and a Top 75 defense to make it to the Final Four.” That was the narrative sold until Alabama changed that last year by making it to the last weekend of the NCAA Tournament with the nation’s No. 111 defense.
Instead of moving the goalposts to find parameters that fit for Kentucky to go on a run, let’s look at teams who had similar efficiency ratings. Last year’s Terrence Shannon-led Illinois team is the most recent example, and also the best. They advanced to the Elite Eight, but the average NCAA Tournament wins of this group is only 1.4.
An Optimistic Sign for the Wildcats
Those comps from Bart Torvik are rather pessimistic. We can’t end with a downer.
Kentucky is improving as the Wildcats get closer to the NCAA Tournament. There is statistical data to back up the anecdotal evidence. Since February 8, Kentucky is the No. 8 team in the country. Once outside of the Top 100 in defensive efficiency, they rank No. 15 in defense over the last nine games and No. 16 on offense.
Creating consistency against a challenging SEC schedule while dealing with a myriad of injuries has been challenging, but this battle-tested Kentucky basketball team is moving in the right direction ahead of postseason play.
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