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NFL free agency: Fantasy football fallout and analysis of deals (and trades)

Keep it locked here as fantasy football analyst Matt Harmon breaks down every fantasy-relevant major deal in free agency. We’re also tracking the latest news and rumors across the NFL.

Godwin got $44 million guaranteed in the deal and reportedly left about $20 million on the table to return to Tampa Bay. It just never made any sense for these two sides to part ways.

New offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard was the passing game coordinator last season under Liam Coen. He has all the knowledge needed to keep Godwin in the role he thrived last season as an elite-producing power slot and top-level blocker.

Godwin wasn’t just one of the most productive receivers in the NFL before he got hurt — he was playing the best football we’ve seen in isolation out of him in several years.

— Matt Harmon (@mattharmon.bsky.social) March 10, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Not NEW Bucs WR Chris Godwin’s #ReceptionPerception profile is up on the site! Highlights: – 75.2% success rate vs. man coverage, 81st percentile and his best since 2020. – 83.7% success rate vs. zone coverage, best mark of his career. Full profile: receptionperception.com/chris-godwin…

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Coming off one of his best pro campaigns and holding such an integral role in the run and pass game for the Bucs, a return to Tampa Bay while he rehabs his latest injury was the easy call. The siren song of a wide-open target tree elsewhere was rightly not enough to get him to leave town.

This was what the Bucs needed, as well. No one on the roster creates layup targets or wins with the ball in his hands like Godwin. He’s the definition of reliability and quarterback-friendly, two crucial traits in helping get the best out of Baker Mayfield. While Jalen McMillan flashed at the end of his rookie season, he fits best as this team’s third receiver who can win off pre-snap motion plays and down the field. There is no overlap in his role with that of Godwin’s.

Fantasy fallout: Godwin’s return fortifies the already excellent Buccaneers offense. As long as we get good reports on Godwin’s health this offseason, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be drafted high. I’ll be interested in taking just about every member of this offense in fantasy football, plain and simple.

Aaron Jones Sr. and the Vikings’ run game got off to a hot start in 2024 but as one might expect, the veteran faded as the year went on. He even began to give up snaps to Cam Akers in critical moments in the Vikings’ final games. But it still makes sense for team and player to find their way back to each other.

Jones still has some juice and fits well in Minnesota’s zone-heavy run game. He more than sets a baseline for them when he’s on the field. At this stage of his career and on this contract, he also doesn’t preclude them from adding a back in the NFL Draft. I like this move for both parties.

Fantasy fallout: Jones may make sense for me in some build where I punt on running back early — which I’m not looking to make a core strategy in 2025 as it is. He could have some big game early on for a strong offense, especially if Minnesota invests more into the interior offensive line. He also brings the pass-catching chops I need from a fantasy running back. Still, I’d be shocked if the Vikings don’t add to their backfield in the draft and if that player didn’t push Jones into at least a committee down the stretch.

I completely understand the logic in adding Adams to this wide receiver room.

He brings them much more man coverage-beating ability than Cooper Kupp does at this stage of their respective careers. He’s also a candidate to hold down the X-receiver position, which allows them to move Puka Nacua around the formation. That was critical for whoever the Rams would add at wideout this offseason.

Fantasy fallout: Matthew Stafford can feed two wide receivers at a high clip. Adding Adams doesn’t make me move Nacua out of the top-five at his position and he’s still a locked-in first round pick. Meanwhile, Adams will likely find his way into the top four rounds of drafts this summer. Aging receivers always come with some risk but there’s plenty of reasons to think Adams works out. … — Click here for more on the Davante Adams signing.

Zach Ertz was an effective role player for the Commanders last year. He was an outlet target underneath for Jayden Daniels and helped the rookie quarterback develop in his comfort throwing over the middle and taking the layups in Year 1. It made all the sense in the world for this partnership to continue. Still, Ertz doesn’t have upside at this point in his career and could even be pushed for snaps by 2024 second-rounder, Ben Sinnott, if he looks the part early in the year.

The Ravens locked up the best offensive lineman set for free agency without using the franchise tag or letting him get to the open market. Good teams stay good.

There is some risk associated with Stanley given his injury history and some of the film from 2022 and 2023 but he played like one of the best left tackles in the sport last season. With the Ravens squarely in a Super Bowl window, they couldn’t start over at that position. Keeping him around is a win for everyone on that side of the ball in Baltimore, headlined by fantasy stars Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

The Chiefs quickly moved to re-sign Hollywood Brown over the weekend, perhaps not so coincidently as Xavier Worthy was arrested in Texas. Worthy ultimately wasn’t charged but the timing was notable, although there were rumblings the Chiefs wanted to retain Brown regardless.

The “prove-it” season Brown signed up for never really got started in KC after he suffered a major injury in the preseason. Once he got back, it was obvious he had missed a lot of valuable time in building rapport with Patrick Mahomes. Still, he got open against zone coverage and was used in multiple positions.

Brown is solid insurance for the Chiefs if they’re unable to add another starting-caliber perimeter receiver. He also gives them an option to play in the slot in a rotation with Worthy if Rashee Rice isn’t ready for Week 1 or faces a suspension. The Chiefs have learned over and over that they can’t have too many bodies at receiver. Still, I can’t imagine too many scenarios where he’s a consistently high-volume option.

You could see this one coming a mile away. On the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast last week, I made the “best I could do” Pawn Stars meme joke in relation to the Bengals contract extension plans in satisfying Joe Burrow’s desires this offseason. That’s for no other reason than this was the cheapest deal to get done.

Gesicki was hyper productive as essentially the Bengals’ big slot receiver in games where Tee Higgins didn’t play and was a low-volume role player in every other contest.

I doubt that this changes in 2025 but he’ll have his moments as the top pass-catching threat at the position on a good offensive attack.

I think it’s pretty difficult to construe this move as a win for Metcalf’s fantasy outlook.

There is much to be determined about the Steelers offense from a personnel standpoint. If Pickens is dealt and no other major target-earner is added, Metcalf does have a chance to own a lion’s share of the target tree. … — Click here for more fantasy fallout on the DK Metcalf trade.

What seems like a stunner of a trade shouldn’t take us off guard that much. There has been a divorce brewing between the Seahawks and Geno Smith for some time.

While Smith is easily a top-15 starting quarterback in the league, Seattle feels it’s stuck in mediocrity with its current build and doesn’t want to spend top dollar on some of the core pieces of this era. Right or wrong, that’s how they justified shipping the 35-year-old Smith for a third-rounder. It’s a more complicated decision than that explainer but let’s focus on the on-field impact in this space.

The Raiders, meanwhile, will happily take a clear path to mediocrity based on where they’ve existed in the league’s doldrums of late. Smith is a massive upgrade at their quarterback spot. His accuracy, reaction to pressure and pocket mobility are among the best in the league. Those skills and his preference for being in the shotgun make him a much better fit for what Chip Kelly will run in Vegas than the offense Seattle is installing this season. Moving on and rejoining Pete Carroll can be a win for Smith.

I expect the Seahawks to move onto someone like Sam Darnold for less than the $40 million Smith is seeking. That may end up just being a bridge situation as Seattle is very live to draft a rookie passer in April.

Fantasy fallout: This is all massively important 2025 news for Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers and the yet-added skill position players in Las Vegas. Smith is better than any quarterback on the free agent or trade market and will be better this year than any of the rookies. You can’t have hoped for anything better if you want to invest in Bowers this season.

We’ll wait to see what the Seahawks do at quarterback but any boost you were set to give Jaxon Smith-Njigba with DK Metcalf leaving town is offset by a change at quarterback. He’ll slightly move down my early ranking, where I was ready to slot him in as a top-13 option at the position.

I called this one on the podcast weeks before it happened because the fit makes so much sense. The Commanders were top-four in plays with a wide receiver or tight end screen last season. Deebo Samuel fits there and some of the horizontal concepts in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. He also fits well alongside Terry McLaurin who is a pure perimeter player and downfield route-runner. The familiarity with Adam Peters and the Commanders’ embarrassment of cap-space riches in order to take on the contract was the sealing portion of the deal.

That said, there are significant questions about what Samuel has left in the tank. He’s gone from a below-average to outright poor man-coverage-beater and even his explosiveness to win in zone is also now a bit sapped. He can still be a useful NFL player for the Commanders and a run-after-catch threat but my guess is his days as high-volume threat are done.

Fantasy fallout: Adding a veteran who can create layup targets is good for the health of the offense overall and Jayden Daniels’ outlook. Samuel’s role shouldn’t overlap with McLaurin at all and I expect the Commanders’ No. 1 wideout to maintain the same volume he saw in 2024. Neither guy moves up or down. I’ll need to see where Deebo ends up in ADP this summer but he won’t be more than a “yellow light” player for me.

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