CC Sabathia’s reduced velocity was first noticed in 2013, a season when he entered with around 2,300 career innings. He also was in his age-33 season, a time in sports when some start slowing down and might have come to the realization throwing harder as a career goes on is not sustainable or realistic.
Towards the end of Sabathia’s Hall of Fame career, harder velocity in the high 90s began getting emphasized more.
Increased velocity might not be the direct cause of the Yankees losing Gerrit Cole to season-ending Tommy John surgery on his elbow and not seeing him throw another pitch until he is a few months, but it might be a contributing factor.
Sabathia finished a career of nearly 3,600 regular-season innings with an average of 93.8 on his four-seam fastball with its peak being 95 mph. By the time his career ended he was throwing a cutter on a regular basis.
For his career, Cole’s average velocity on his four-seam fastball is 96.8. Since debuting in 2013 with the Pittsburgh Pirates two years after being the top overall pick, he has never averaged under 95 with the pitch and was even averaging 95.9 mph after returning from missing the first three months with an elbow injury that in hindsight might be the precursor to an injury that will make Max Fried and Carlos Rodon the top two starters, leaving the Yankees hoping for the best with whoever replaces Cole.
It seemed worrisome Friday when word emerged Cole was not feeling right and accelerated when the 2023 Cy Young Award winner said he was worried after not recovering from a 54-pitch exhibition outing where his fastball averaged 97.6.
New York Yankees’ Gerrit Cole pitches to the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning of the first … [+]
The Yankees survived Cole’s absence extremely well but perhaps about future wear and tear were on their minds shortly after the World Series. Their concerns might be evidenced by not voiding the opt-out on his contract, denying Cole a 10th year on the original deal signed after he averaged 97.3 on his fastball while throwing 212 innings in the regular season and about 37 more in the postseason for the Houston Astros.
Eventually the Yankees and Cole settled the matter by sticking with the terms of the original deal, perhaps because they were unsure if last year’s injury would wind up being the path to Tommy John surgery, something Sabathia avoided along with Masahiro Tanaka in his first year as a Yankee in 2014.
Cole has thrown the second-most innings in the game since 2017, second to Aaron Nola. Nola is entering his age-32 season averaging 92.8 mph on his four-seam fastball. In recent years, his curveball has become his most frequently used pitch while Cole’s most used pitch is a four-seam fastball thrown 696 times last season and 1,741 times in 2023.
According to Jon Roegele, who compiles the list of players to undergo the surgery, Cole is the second established pitcher to undergo the procedure since the end of the regular season, joining Joe Musgrove, who was traded for him in 2018 and averages around 93 on his fastball.
Perhaps a comparison on the high velocity spectrum can be made for Jacob deGrom. The former Mets’ ace signed a five-year deal with the Texas Rangers, underwent the surgery on June 12, 2023 and returned Sept. 13.
deGrom is a little over two years older than Cole and was averaging 99.1 on the pitch before undergoing the operation a few days before his 35th birthday. Since debuting as a prospect less heralded than Rafael Montero in 2014 with the Mets, he has never averaged under 94.2 with the pitch.
He also has a more extensive injury history than Cole, who tweaked a hamstring in the final month of the 2021 season. In 2010, he underwent Tommy John for the first time, ulnar nerve surgery in 2016, neck and hamstring injuries in 2020, forearm tightness in 2021, a stress reaction in his shoulder that delayed his 2022 debut until early-August when he was hitting 102.
Whether it is velocity or the natural aging process of constantly doing something so unnatural, the Yankees are facing a huge hole and enduring a nightmarish spring training with Giancarlo Stanton’s elbow along with Luis Gil’s lat strain following over 150 innings last season.
Whether the Yankees can still excel without Cole is unknown. They did it once before with a slightly lesser rotation group and signing Fried upgraded things though they hardly expected him to be thrust into the role of trying to replicate Cole.
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