Sean Barnard provides a preview and best bets as UCLA hosts USC in Saturday’s NCAA basketball slate.
Conference Tournaments are now in full swing as teams around the country begin to see their seasons come to an end or they earn their path to the NCAA Tournament. The SEC Tournament is expected to be among the biggest bloodbaths with plenty of talented teams. The conference has a chance to break the record for the most teams from the same conference earning NCAA Tournament bids, but this will not be seen until Sunday.
Mississippi State seems to have the inside track on receiving an NCAA Tournament bid while LSU may need to win the Conference Tournament and steal the automatic bid. While the high caliber of teams is a fair excuse why, LSU holds a record of just 14-17 on the season and is just 3-15 in SEC conference play.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams with the first game taking place on March 1st. Mississippi State got the better of this game securing an 81-69 victory over LSU in which they outscored them 46-32 in the second half.
Mississippi State enters tonight’s matchup as an 8.5-point favorite and -440 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. LSU holds +340 odds on the Moneyline and the game total is set at 145.5 for the matchup.
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Mississippi State Analysis
Mississippi State enters tonight’s game with a 20-11 overall record and has gone 8-10 in SEC Conference play. The Bulldogs rank 34th in the NET. They have gone 7-9 against Quad 1 opponents, 5-2 against Quad 2 teams, and are a perfect 8-0 in Quad 3 and 4 matchups. Their most impressive wins were over Memphis, Texas A&M, SMU, Vanderbilt, and Ole Miss twice. The pair of Quad 2 losses were at the hands of Texas and Butler.
Chris Jans’ squad leans on their offense for success. They average 79.6 points per game which ranks 47th in the country and rank 57th in offensive rating. The Bulldogs play good team basketball and rank 71st in assists tallied per game as a team. They shoot the 57th-most three-pointers, 18th most shot attempts overall, and also rank 46th in total rebounds per game as a team.
Defensively, they do not fair as great. Mississippi State gives up 74.2 points per game which ranks 253rd out of the 364 qualifying teams. They rank 204th in defensive rating and are especially vulnerable on the perimeter. Opponents attempt 25.5 three-point attempts per game against the Bulldogs and connect on 36.7% of these attempts which ranks 232rd and 341st in the country.
Josh Hubbard leads the team in scoring with 18.3 points per game while adding 3.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists. Hubbard is attempting 8.9 three-point attempts per game and connecting on 34.3% of these perimeter shots. He dropped 30 points in the first matchup between these two teams. KeShawn Murphy is the only other player to average in double figures, averaging 11.6 points and 7.5 rebounds. Claudell Harris Jr, Riley Kugel, RJ Melendez, and Cameron Matthews each also add 7.5 points per game or greater. Matthews also makes a significant impact on the defense side of the ball leading the conference with 2.5 steals per game.
LSU Analysis
It was a tale of two haves for LSU this season. They got off to an 11-2 start to the season before finishing the year on a 3-15 skid. Overall the Tigers are 14-17 on the season and just 3-15 in Conference play. The SEC is loaded with talented teams, but there comes a point where results matter and LSU is simply short in their list of wins.
They have dropped to 86th in the NET and are just 2-14 against Quad 1 opponents. They also are 2-3 when facing Quad 2 teams with these losses coming to Texas, Pittsburgh, and Vanderbilt. Their pair of Quad 2 victories were over Kansas State and Oklahoma.
LSU ranks 164th in scoring, 217th in offensive rating, 216th in points allowed, and 162nd in defensive rating. They rank in the middle of the pack by most metrics and have struggled to find a full identity on the season. The Tigers have committed more to their perimeter production as the season progressed and rank 73rd in the county in three-point volume by launching 25.6 per game. Despite this, they are connecting at just a 30.9% rate which ranks 329th in the country.
Camryn Carter leads the team in scoring at 16.5 points while adding 4.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. He dropped 23 points in the first matchup between these two teams. Jordan Sears and Jalen Reed are the only other players to average double figures although Reed suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Vyctorious Miller, Dji Bailey, and Daimion Collins also add 8.2 points per game or greater.
The Pick: Mississippi State -8.5
LSU is a better team than their record shows, but Mississippi State got the better of them in the first matchup and covered the spread pretty comfortably. Expect similar results tonight.
The Bulldogs won the first matchup by effectively protecting the rim and getting out in transition. They tallied seven blocks and added 18 fast-break points. They also outrebounded them 28-18 on the defensive end and outscored them 40-22 in the paint. Hubbard led all scorers with 30 points, shooting 7-for-9 inside the three-point line and shooting 10-for-11 at the free-throw line.
While LSU is due for some positive shooting regression as they shot just 9-for-36 (25.0%) from beyond the three-point arc, this has been a weakness for them all year. The Tigers have been a difficult team to evaluate what to expect from on a night-by-night basis and their last victory was all the way back on February 18th.
Expect LSU to show some life at the start of this game and for it to remain competitive for a while. But when push comes to shove expect the Mississippi State offense to prove too threatening and for LSU to have no answer. There is a clearer bar of expectations for the way Mississippi State should be expected to look and they have put forth far more convincing performances on the year. Don’t be shocked if this game gets out of hand and for Mississippi State to cover the -8.5 spread again tonight.
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