Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
Another day of chaos on the bubble leaves us with plenty to discuss. The SEC’s climb towards a record-shattering 14 bids continued, with Texas toppling Texas A&M for a massive victory. North Carolina and Boise State won major head-to-head bubble clashes, while Xavier came agonizingly close to knocking off Marquette.
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With Selection Sunday now a mere two days away, though, the question now starts to be about the selection committee’s ability to process and value all of these new results. The long discussions in the committee room mean that nothing happens quickly. Will the 12-person group be able to sort through dozens of results every day and properly account for them in the bracket?
Additionally, and somewhat related, we often overstate the overall impact of conference tournament games. The most famous instance of this was Texas A&M in 2022. The Aggies, seemingly near the bubble as they entered the SEC Tournament, rattled off three wins to make the championship game. That run seemed enough to earn them an at-large bid. Instead, the committee left Texas A&M on the outside looking in. Recency bias makes us want these games to matter immensely, but that is not always the case.
It’s easy to forget that each result is only one of 30-plus pieces of evidence a team presents the committee throughout the season. It may be a cliche, but it is an important truth. For these bubble teams, the season may feel like it comes down to a final test during Champ Week, but the sum total of their accomplishments will be the true measuring stick.
For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below.
- Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
- Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the Big Dance right now.
- In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
- On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration — a win away from being a win away.
- Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
- Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement since Wednesday
Up to Lock: None
Up to Should Be In: None
Up to In the Mix: None
Added to On the Fringe: None
Down to In the Mix: West Virginia
Down to On the Fringe: SMU
Dropped from On the Fringe: None
Earned automatic bid: None
ACC
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: North Carolina, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: SMU
In The Mix
North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-11 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Heels beat Wake Forest on Thursday to nab a massive head-to-head victory against Wake Forest in the ACC quarterfinals. A loss there might have nudged the Demon Deacons ahead of the Tar Heels in the at-large pecking order. Fortune smiled on UNC in the semifinals, as well. Hubert Davis and company get a third crack at Duke on Friday night in what might amount to a play-in game for the Heels’ NCAA Tournament hopes, and National Player of the Year frontrunner Cooper Flagg is likely going to sit out after spraining his ankle on Thursday. If UNC cannot beat a Flagg-less Duke, it will be tough to make a case for a team that would then be 1-12 in Quadrant 1 games.
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Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Decent 8-9 record in games in the top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The door slammed shut for Wake Forest on Thursday. The Demon Deacons successfully dragged UNC into a halfcourt slugfest, but they could not make the necessary plays late in a close loss against a fierce bubble rival. Wake’s resume metrics average now lies outside the top 50, so that is no longer a key strength on a resume that has little else to offer. Barring a wild pro-Demon Deacons faction on the NCAA selection committee, it is hard to picture Wake getting into the dance at this point.
GO DEEPER
Men’s basketball Top 25: Duke’s defense, Bama’s offense and a blind resume test
Big 12
Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: Baylor
In the Mix: West Virginia
On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU
Should Be In
Baylor
What They Need: The Bears nearly completed a monumental comeback against Texas Tech on Thursday night, but they came up just short as VJ Edgecombe’s buzzer-beating runner banked harmlessly off the rim. Baylor is now in the bubble mix, though the Bears’ bona fides — sparkling quality metrics, solid resume metrics, five Q1 wins, 11-13 record against the top two quadrants — all point towards inclusion in the field. The biggest risk is if the committee goes rogue and cites the version of Baylor without injured forward Josh Ojianwuna (4-6 overall, no Q1 victories) is different enough to not warrant inclusion. I do not expect that to be the case.
In the Mix
West Virginia
Profile Strengths: Six Q1 wins, including four in Q1A, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Metrics are squarely in bubble land, 13 total losses.
Looking Ahead: After careful reexamination, I am moving West Virginia back down a category. Their metrics are on par with the rest of the bubble, and the committee has the “out” of devaluing a couple of the Mountaineers’ early wins because Tucker DeVries played in them before his season-ending upper-body injury. Fortunately for West Virginia, the Big 12 tournament loss to Colorado was in Quad 2, so it is not a “bad” loss on the resume, but it’s a worrisome closing statement to the Mountaineers’ at-large argument. Six Q1 wins and no bad losses may still be enough, but WVU will be nervously rooting against bid stealers until Sunday.
Big East
Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: None
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In The Mix
Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: Heartbreak at Madison Square Garden for Xavier. The Musketeers led Marquette for most of the first 35 minutes, including a 14-point cushion with 17 minutes left in the game. But they could not hold off the tenacious Golden Eagles, and despite 38 points from Ryan Conwell, Xavier missed out on a massive Q1 win opportunity. Sean Miller’s team is now at the mercy of the selection committee — and of the quadrant cutoffs. The Musketeers need UConn to end in the NET top 30 (the Huskies rose from 31st to 29th on Friday morning) to add a second Q1 win to their resume. They would also love for the committee to value that five of Xavier’s seven Q2 wins are in the “high Q2” area (home vs. NET 31-55, neutral vs. NET 51-75, road at NET 76-100). Xavier is as bubbly as it gets, and the wait until Sunday will be excruciating.
GO DEEPER
A fireside chat with Dan Hurley: In UConn’s quest for a dynasty, can the Huskies stand the smoke?
Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State
On the Fringe: Nebraska
In The Mix
Indiana
Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-13 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: The wait begins for Indiana. The Hoosiers could not get over the hump against Oregon on Thursday afternoon and will now fret over their fate until the end of the weekend. Indiana has beaten every opponent it should beat, and it played up a couple of crucial times. The ultra-high-end road win at Michigan State looms especially large as one of the best wins of anyone on the bubble. If I had to guess, this is a First Four squad, but a lot can change between now and Sunday.
Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two games over .500 overall, 9-15 record against Q1/Q2.
Looking Ahead: Oh, boy. Ohio State is in real trouble after dropping its Big Ten tournament opener to Iowa. Although that game in itself is no issue (just a Q2 defeat), it put the Buckeyes in the terrifying position of being just 17-15 overall, two games over .500. No team so close to neutral has ever received an at-large bid, meaning that Ohio State needs a mini-miracle to go dancing now. Based on the other strengths of this resume, we’ll keep OSU in the mix, but some committee members may automatically eliminate the Buckeyes at this point.
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Arkansas
In the Mix: Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None
Should Be In
Arkansas
What They Need: Arkansas let Lock status slip away against Ole Miss on Thursday afternoon. With the game tied 80-80, Trevon Brazile’s go-ahead free throws with under 10 seconds remaining both bricked off the iron, and the Rebels’ Sean Pedulla drilled a 3 just before the buzzer to send Ole Miss onward to face Auburn. As a result, the Razorbacks will be tense until they see their name revealed on Selection Sunday. That is not a guarantee, but the Hogs’ five Q1 wins and overall clean resume (zero bad losses) should get them to Dayton for the First Four, at the very least.
In The Mix
Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, competitive metrics, 10-12 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, conference record eyesore?
Looking Ahead: The Sooners hope to never see Otega Oweh again. The former Sooner ripped his old team’s heart out again late on Thursday night, and Oklahoma took another gut-wrenching one-point loss at the buzzer. The Sooners have clearly proven themselves at the highest level via seven Q1 wins, many of which were away from home. Porter Moser, Jeremiah Fears and the rest of the squad have a long wait until Selection Sunday, but as long as the committee doesn’t balk at their 6-12 conference record in a league with 12 or 13 other NCAA Tournament teams, this profile looks good enough to dance.
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Texas
Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, seven Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 10-14 record against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Absolutely massive result for Texas on Thursday. The Longhorns added a seventh Q1 win, this time over Texas A&M, and the resulting bump in their metrics elevated them to true at-large range. With 14 losses already, though, Texas cannot feel safe yet, especially if the committee simply does not want to stuff 14 SEC squads into the field. Rodney Terry’s group can make an even louder statement on Friday in the quarterfinal matchup against Tennessee.
GO DEEPER
Beware the Anteaters: Why NCAA Tournament teams won’t want to see UC Irvine
The Rest
Locks: Drake (auto-bid), Gonzaga (auto-bid), Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Boise State, Colorado State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco
In The Mix
Boise State
Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, resume metrics still slightly low.
Looking Ahead: The Broncos bounced back from the season-ending loss to Colorado State with a critical victory over San Diego State in the Mountain West quarterfinals. Leon Rice’s team is inching closer to the field, though their bad losses and resume metrics are still major limitations. Fortunately, wins over Clemson and Saint Mary’s in the nonconference have aged incredibly well. The Broncos now get a crack at New Mexico on Friday for a major needle-moving victory. It might not necessarily lock up a bid, but it would make an emphatic statement to the committee before the weekend rolls around.
Colorado State
Profile Strengths: Strong 8-7 record against the top two quadrants, improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, very little of note in the nonconference.
Looking Ahead: Colorado State handled its business on Thursday night in Vegas, dispatching a veteran Nevada squad via an excellent defensive performance. That bumped CSU’s Q1+Q2 record over .500, a strong data point relative to many of the power conference bubblers. The Rams’ metrics are still trailing the pack, though, and they lack the kind of headline Q1A win that will catch the committee’s attention. The Rams must pick up another big win in the Mountain West semifinals on Friday night, and then we will re-examine their status on Saturday morning.
Dayton
Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Flyers are still a mega-long shot, but last Friday’s win at VCU lifts them back onto the fringes of the discussion. Unfortunately, Dayton would not get another crack at VCU until the championship game; at that point, another victory would do a lot more than simply bolster the Flyers’ at-large resume. It’s tough to envision Dayton getting in just by adding wins over Saint Joseph’s in the quarterfinals and George Mason in the semifinals, but I suppose stranger things have happened.
San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-8 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs fell to Boise State in their Mountain West tournament opener, managing a meager 52 points in a disappointing offensive effort. Not only did that add another loss to SDSU’s ledger, but it also gave the bubble adversary Broncos an extra Q1 win. SDSU’s neutral-site win over Houston remains a crown jewel, and SDSU did sweep Boise during the regular season. A neutral-site win over Creighton has aged well, too. But this is a truly nebulous case, and SDSU will join the chorus of teams ardently cheering against bid stealers over the next few days.
VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong overall and road/neutral record, 6-5 against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Rams took a surprising home loss to Dayton to close the regular season, sending them right back into the thick of the bubble discussion. Fortunately, the Flyers have played themselves into Q2 loss territory. VCU is still the presumptive favorite in the A-10 tournament, but if the Rams do need an at-large bid, the conversation could be polarizing for a team that has not played a single Q1A game and has wobbly resume metrics already. I would not suggest losing in the quarterfinals of the A-10 tournament.
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UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 17-3 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock.
Looking Ahead: The Anteaters smoked UC Davis on Thursday and dug deep to come back and beat UC Santa Barbara on Saturday night, narrowly keeping their at-large dreams alive. UC Irvine is currently only in consideration because of their resume metrics, but even those aren’t quite good enough to get the Anteaters inside the cutline. A win over Cal Poly in the Big West tournament semifinals is unlikely to make a major difference.
UC San Diego
Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, quickly improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: With Drake locking up the Missouri Valley’s automatic bid, UC San Diego is now set up to be the firebrand of the selection process. Eric Olen’s squad could get to 29 wins with a Big West tournament semifinal victory. Would that be enough if the Tritons lose in the title game to UC Irvine (nowhere near a bad loss)? Mid-major fans everywhere hope so, but in practice, the committee could end up defaulting to teams with more big wins. Here’s hoping UCSD renders that conversation meaningless by simply earning the Big West’s automatic bid.
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