The first week of NFL free agency is in the books, with a lot of action going on in what was considered to be one of the weaker classes in recent years. That didn’t stop teams from trying to improve their rosters over the last week, as plenty of clubs had a lot of cap space to spend.
The Seattle Seahawks made their play at quarterback, unloading Geno Smith and signing Sam Darnold to replace him. Milton Williams received a $100 million contract from the New England Patriots ($51 million guaranteed), making him the third-highest paid defensive tackle in football in terms of average annual salary ($26 million per year).
DK Metcalf was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Deebo Samuel was dealt to the Washington Commanders in blockbuster deals amongst wide receivers. The Commanders then boosted their offensive line by trading for Laremy Tunsil and the Houston Texans reshaped their offensive line while acquiring safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson in a separate deal with the Philadelphia Eagles.
As for the Super Bowl champions, they moved on from five players on the No. 1 defense in the NFL last season. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers still hasn’t signed yet.
With all that happened in free agency, let’s make some bigger picture declarations and decide which are overreactions and which are reality.
Signing Sam Darnold is a lateral move for the Seahawks
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Seahawks made a wise move in moving on from Geno Smith, as they weren’t going to compete for a Super Bowl with a 34-year-old quarterback who throws a lot of interceptions. Seattle decided to instead pay Darnold, who is coming off a career year with the Minnesota Vikings and was the best quarterback available in free agency.
Smith was making $25 million a year ($31 million cap hit in the final year of his deal), while Darnold signed a contract that pays him $33.5 million a year. Seattle is paying Darnold more, but Darnold is 27 and threw for 4,319 yards and 35 passing touchdowns last season (fifth in the NFL in both categories). On throws of 20-plus yards downfield, Darnold led the NFL in completions (34), completion rate (49%), passing touchdowns (nine) and passing yards (1,182).
The upside is there with Darnold, as he will reunite with new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who was the passing game coordinator when Darnold was in San Francisco. This was a risk worth taking for Seattle.
The DK Metcalf trade is pointless if the Steelers don’t get Aaron Rodgers
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Steelers had to upgrade their passing game this offseason and completed step one with the trade for Metcalf. The two-time Pro Bowler is one of six players in NFL history with 900-plus receiving yards in each of his first six seasons, while his 48 touchdowns are tied for fifth in the NFL since he entered the league in 2019.
Metcalf is a good player and No.1 wide receiver, but who is going to throw him the ball? The Steelers haven’t officially ruled out a Russell Wilson return, but have their sights set on Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers comes to Pittsburgh, he’ll be throwing to Metcalf and George Pickens — which could potentially be the top wide receiver duo in the league.
Pittsburgh knows what it has with Wilson, and the results showed last December. This Metcalf trade works if Rodgers chooses Pittsburgh, especially since it gave up a second-round pick in the deal. The Steelers are back to square one if they don’t get Rodgers — as they are running out of reliable options at the position.
The Bears are a playoff team next season
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Give credit to general manager Ryan Poles for making sure Caleb Williams is protected as he enters his second season. The Bears were aggressive in improving the offensive line, trading a 2026 fourth-round pick for Joe Thuney and a 2025 sixth-round pick for Jonah Jackson.
After solidifying the guard position, the Bears decided to sign center Drew Dalman to a three-year $42 million deal — making him one of the highest-paid centers in the game. They also have Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright at tackle.
Is this offensive line good enough to make Chicago a playoff team? Not quite, as Williams needs to progress in year two in the passing game (and there will be little excuse with the improved offensive line and Ben Johnson as head coach). This all comes down to Williams, as Dennis Allen is very likely to get the defense back to a top-10 unit in Year 1.
Let’s pause on the Bears’ playoff hype right now, but Chicago is certainly better.
The Bengals front office will cost them another playoff berth
Overreaction or reality: Reality
One has to wonder why the Bengals take so long to sign their players to extensions. Ja’Marr Chase still isn’t signed, and now he’ll become the league’s first $40 million receiver because the Bengals waited too long to get his deal done. Tee Higgins is on the franchise tag for the second straight year and there seems to be no long-term extension in sight (again).
Then there’s Trey Hendrickson, who the Bengals can’t pay due to the rising edge rusher market. Cincinnati will look to receive strong draft compensation for Hendrickson, one of the best pass rushers in football.
These extensions hurt Cincinnati’s chances of building in the trenches for Joe Burrow, protecting the quarterback and getting to the quarterback on the other side of the ball. The Bengals kept a good chunk of their own players, but still haven’t improved on the offensive nor defensive line — both of which hurt them over the course of the past two years.
If Cincinnati could get its own top players signed, perhaps it could actually improve its roster in free agency. The franchise shouldn’t be this mediocre under Burrow.
The Commanders are better than the Eagles after acquiring Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Commanders certainly got better in free agency with the trade acquisitions of Tunsil and Samuel, giving Jayden Daniels some blindside protection and a gadget receiver who can create nightmares for defenses (especially lining up next to Terry McLaurin).
The Eagles lost several key defensive players, including Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson — all vital to the No. 1 defense last year that helped them win a Super Bowl. The Eagles were expecting to lose these players and replace them with draft picks, but these are still massive losses.
Even with the Commanders upgrades, they still have a ways to go to catch and pass the Eagles. Philadelphia still has the core of its offensive group intact and the best offensive line in football. The defense still has good young players, and more are coming with the players they have drafted and developed over the past few years.
Washington is better and can win the NFC East. Philadelphia is still loaded and in its Super Bowl window.
Aaron Rodgers isn’t good enough to have teams wait around for him
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The quarterback market is weak at this point in free agency, and the class wasn’t strong to begin with. Outside of Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, are there any quarterbacks who have the potential to be franchise players (maybe Jaxson Dart?).
For the Steelers, Giants and Vikings, Rodgers is the best option left. Pittsburgh needs him, New York doesn’t have to have him, and Minnesota has J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings. So why all this time to make a decision? And why are all three teams waiting on a player who just came off a season during which he had his lowest completion rate (63.0%) since 2019 and the lowest passer rating (90.5) in a full season in his career?
Quite simple: After Rodgers, there is no one else for these teams. The Giants aren’t guaranteed anything with the No. 3 pick and the Steelers aren’t getting a franchise quarterback at No. 21. Both these teams could use Rodgers for different reasons, and Rodgers knows that by using the Vikings to drive up the price (and he may even sign there as the one-year bride to McCarthy).
Rodgers isn’t good enough, but this is the current free agent quarterback market. These teams have no choice.
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