The 2025 NCAA Tournament is right around the corner, and Friday’s college basketball schedule features a plethora of important conference tournament games. There are semifinal games taking place across the country, including in the ACC, Big East and Big 12. Top seed St. John’s will try to maintain its historic season in the Big East when it faces No. 5 seed Marquette for the third time this year. The Red Storm are 4.5-point favorites in the latest college basketball odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Elsewhere, No. 5 seed North Carolina will try to upset No. 1 seed Duke in the ACC Tournament semifinals.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 225-165 betting roll (+1873) on all top-rated college basketball picks. Now, here are the best upset bets for college basketball on Friday, according to the model.
Texas to upset Tennessee (+420 at FanDuel)
Score prediction: Tennessee 75, Texas 70, bringing value at these odds
Texas has already picked up two impressive wins in the SEC Tournament this week, beating No. 12 seed Vanderbilt and No. 5 seed Texas A&M. The Longhorns were 2.5-point underdogs against the Commodores and were 5.5-point underdogs against the Aggies. They only lost by four points in the lone regular-season meeting between these teams. SportsLine’s model has Texas losing by five points, but the Longhorns are winning in 33% of simulations to create clear value on the underdogs. FanDuel Sportsbook has the best price at +420.
NC Central to upset South Carolina State (+270 at Caesars)
Score prediction: South Carolina State 77, NC Central 75, bringing value at these odds
NC Central finished with a losing record in the regular season, but it won two of its final three games to generate momentum heading into the MEAC Tournament. The Eagles were able to capitalize on their opportunity against No. 3 seed Delaware State on Thursday, springing the upset to advance to the semifinals. South Carolina State only won by five points as a 16.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
Bethune-Cookman to upset Jackson State (+145 at DraftKings)
Score prediction: Bethune-Cookman 72, Jackson State 71
Bethune-Cookman closed the regular season on a five-game winning streak after losing to Jackson State on Feb. 17. The Wildcats advanced to the semifinals with a 69-60 win over Alcorn State on Thursday, as senior guard Brayon Freeman scored a team-high 19 points off the bench. Jackson State finished the regular season with a losing record, and it only beat Bethune-Cookman by five points at home in the first meeting.
Boise State to upset New Mexico (+110 at BetMGM)
Score prediction: Boise State 75, New Mexico 73
Boise State lost to New Mexico on the road in January, but it responded with an 86-78 win at home last month. The Broncos are coming off a 62-52 win over No. 4 seed San Diego State on Thursday, with four of their starters finishing in double figures. New Mexico is coming off a somewhat shaky performance against No. 8 seed San Jose State, failing to cover the spread as a 15.5-point favorite. The model has Boise State winning this game outright in 56% of simulations. BetMGM has the best price on this line at +110.
Kentucky to upset Alabama (+230 at DraftKings)
Score prediction: Alabama 87, Kentucky 86, bringing value at these odds
Kentucky closed the regular season with three wins in its final four games, including road wins against Oklahoma and then-No. 15 Missouri. The Wildcats added another win over the Sooners on Thursday, as Otega Oweh knocked down a baseline jumper with 0.5 seconds remaining in the game. Kentucky has proven it can push Alabama in a high-scoring game, as the Crimson Tide escaped with a 102-97 win in Lexington on Jan. 18. The model expects this game to come down to the final shot, making Kentucky a valuable wager to spring an upset. DraftKings Sportsbook has the best price on this game at +230.
Want more college basketball picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s college basketball best upset bets for Friday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
