The 2025 MLB season is underway, with the Dodgers and Cubs already having played two games in Japan. The Red Sox begin their season in Arlington, Texas on Thursday, which is Opening Day around the league.
That means it’s prediction time. Just like in years past, we’ve assembled an All-Star guest of predictors (read: guessers and BBWAA members), including myself, my fellow Red Sox beat writer Chris Smith, our Red Sox columnist Sean McAdam, sports columnist Matt Vautour and sports enterprise writer Chris Mason.
The roundtable also served as the latest episode of MassLive’s Fenway Rundown podcast. You can listen here.
Without further ado, here are our predictions for the 2025 season, first for the league and then for the Red Sox:
AMERICAN LEAGUE PLAYOFF PICTURE:
DIVISION WINNERS:
COTILLO: Yankees, Royals, Rangers
MASON: Orioles, Royals, Rangers
MCADAM: Yankees, Royals, Rangers
SMITH: Yankees, Tigers, Rangers
VAUTOUR: Yankees, Tigers, Rangers
***
WILD-CARD TEAMS:
COTILLO: Red Sox, Astros, Blue Jays
MASON: Red Sox, Mariners, Yankees
MCADAM: Red Sox, Orioles, Mariners
SMITH: Red Sox, Mariners, Orioles
VAUTOUR: Red Sox, Twins, Royals
***
ALCS:
COTILLO: Rangers over Royals in 6 games
MASON: Rangers over Orioles in 7 games
MCADAM: Rangers over Red Sox in 6 games
SMITH: Rangers over Red Sox in 6 games
VAUTOUR: Rangers over Tigers in 6 games
*** *** *** *** ***
AL EAST FINISHING ORDER:
COTILLO: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays
MASON: Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays
MCADAM: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays
SMITH: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays
VAUTOUR: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***
NATIONAL LEAGUE PLAYOFF PICTURE:
DIVISION WINNERS:
COTILLO: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers
MASON: Phillies, Reds, Dodgers
MCADAM: Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers
SMITH: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers
VAUTOUR: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers
***
WILD-CARD TEAMS:
COTILLO: Mets, Diamondbacks, Padres
MASON: Diamondbacks, Mets, Braves
MCADAM: Diamondbacks, Mets, Braves
SMITH: Phillies, Mets, Diamondbacks
VAUTOUR: Phillies, Mets, Padres
***
NLCS:
COTILLO: Dodgers over Mets in 6 games
MASON: Dodgers over Phillies in 7 games
MCADAM: Phillies over Dodgers in 7 games
SMITH: Dodgers over Phillies in 6 games
VAUTOUR: Braves over Phillies in 7 games
*** *** *** *** ***
WORLD SERIES:
COTILLO: Dodgers over Rangers in 6 games
MASON: Rangers over Dodgers in 7 games
MCADAM: Phillies over Rangers in 6 games
SMITH: Dodgers over Rangers in 6 games
VAUTOUR: Rangers over Braves in 7 games
*** *** *** *** ***
AMERICAN LEAGUE AWARDS:
AL MVP:
COTILLO: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
MASON: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
MCADAM: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
SMITH: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
VAUTOUR: Aaron Judge, Yankees
***
AL CY YOUNG:
COTILLO: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
MASON: Tarik Skubal, Tigers
MCADAM: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
SMITH: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
VAUTOUR: Tarik Skubal, Tigers
***
AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
COTILLO: Roman Anthony, Red Sox
MASON: Roman Anthony, Red Sox
MCADAM: Jackson Jobe, Tigers
SMITH: Jasson Domínguez, Yankees
VAUTOUR: Kristian Campbell, Red Sox
*** *** *** *** ***
NATIONAL LEAGUE AWARDS:
NL MVP:
COTILLO: Francisco Lindor, Mets
MASON: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
MCADAM: Elly De La Cruz, Reds
SMITH: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
VAUTOUR: Juan Soto, Mets
***
NL CY YOUNG:
COTILLO: Dylan Cease, Padres
MASON: Paul Skenes, Pirates
MCADAM: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins
SMITH: Paul Skenes, Pirates
VAUTOUR: Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks
NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
COTILLO: Matt Shaw, Cubs
MASON: Bubba Chandler, Pirates
MCADAM: Matt Shaw, Cubs
SMITH: Roki Sasaki, Dodgers
VAUTOUR: Roki Sasaki, Dodgers
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***
RED SOX PREDICTIONS:
RED SOX RECORD / PLACE IN AL EAST:
COTILLO: 87-75 / 2nd
MASON: 89-73 / 2nd
MCADAM: 90-72 / 2nd
SMITH: 89-73 / 2nd
VAUTOUR: 88-74 / 2nd
***
RED SOX MVP:
COTILLO: Triston Casas
MASON: Alex Bregman
MCADAM: Garrett Crochet
SMITH: Rafael Devers
VAUTOUR: Triston Casas
***
RED SOX PITCHER OF THE YEAR:
COTILLO: Garrett Crochet
MASON: Garrett Crochet
MCADAM: Garrett Crochet
SMITH: Garrett Crochet
VAUTOUR: Garrett Crochet
***
THREE RED SOX PREDICTIONS, INCLUDING A BOLD ONE:
COTILLO: While Aroldis Chapman is the Opening Day closer, Garrett Whitlock leads the team in saves; neither Ceddanne Rafaela or Masataka Yoshida are on the roster by July 1; Boston acquires a catcher at the deadline, potentially Philadelphia’s J.T. Realmuto (bold)
MASON: Alex Bregman wins a Gold Glove at third base; Garrett Crochet makes 25 starts and goes 160 innings but does not win the Cy Young; Triston Casas is traded by the end of the calendar year (bold)
MCADAM: The closer in August and September is not currently on the roster; Tanner Houck is a major disappointment in 2025; Ceddanne Rafaela is going to have a monster season and be the most improved player on the club (bold)
SMITH: Triston Casas hits 30+ homers and makes the All-Star Game; Tanner Houck regresses but Brayan Bello takes a major step forward; Marcelo Mayer will get a chance to play second base in the majors and replace Kristian Campbell at some point (bold)
VAUTOUR: The saves leader is not currently on the roster; Ceddanne Rafaela makes the All-Star team; Garrett Crochet starts the All-Star Game for the AL (bold)
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