The Utah Jazz finished with the NBA’s worst record, but they do not have the exclusive best odds of getting Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 pick. Three teams share the best odds.
Cooper Flagg is very likely to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft. Next month is the draft lottery, in which the balls are taken out of the hopper and one lucky team will be awarded the No. 1 pick. On Sunday, the NBA regular season ended. The Utah Jazz finished with the league’s worst record due to the Washington Wizards beating the Miami Heat on a buzzer-beating shot. Some people thought the Jazz gained the best odds to pick Cooper Flagg, but that wasn’t true. Changes have been made to the lottery, which therefore influence the draft odds for each of the lottery teams.
Let’s mention the central changes to the lottery process before we give you each lottery team’s odds of getting the No. 1 pick, likely Cooper Flagg.
The NBA wanted to reduce the extent of late-season tanking by flattening out the odds for the worst three teams in the league. The NBA wanted to prevent the worst team from getting the best odds; that’s an obvious way to reduce tanking. On the other side, however, the NBA did want to protect the worst team to an extent. The rule governing the lottery process is that the team with the worst record will pick no lower than No. 5.
Now let’s dig into the 2025 NBA draft odds for the No. 1 pick, one month before the lottery in May:
14 — Sacramento Kings (to Atlanta Hawks), 0.5 percent odds
The Kings are in the worst position, good enough to make the play-in round but not good enough to get an elite pick.
Maybe the Mavs could get a generational draft pick akin to Luka Doncic. Nah, it wouldn’t be worth it, given they would trade him several years later for no good reason.
The Bulls playing the play-in game is a tradition unlike any other, alongside The Masters.
11 — Miami Heat, 2 percent odds
The Heat have also made a habit out of playing in the play-in game.
The Blazers actually played like a good team in the second half of the season. How much of an indicator is that? We’ll find out next season.
9 — Phoenix Suns (to Houston Rockets), 3.8 percent odds
The Suns have spent more money for less of a return than just about any NBA franchise over the past three seasons. Kevin Durant might leave Phoenix this summer.
All eyes are on the long-term health of Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs’ future is on hold until that situation clears up.
The Raptors quickly faded into complete NBA anonymity after their 2019 championship and the departure of Kawhi Leonard.
Remember when James Harden and Kevin Durant played for the Nets? Did that really happen? What an utterly forgettable era that was for a very forgettable NBA franchise.
Given Joel Embiid’s lack of health, the Sixers desperately need a draft lottery break to cut in their favor.
4 — New Orleans Pelicans, 12.5 percent odds
The Pelicans fired general manager David Griffin and are therefore highly likely to seek a change of head coach as well. Willie Green is on the hot seat.
In past NBA seasons, the Hornets would have had the third-best odds of getting the No. 1 pick and Cooper Flagg, but under the revised rules, the Hornets are one of three teams with the best odds.
2 — Washington Wizards, 14 percent odds
In past years, Washington winning on the last day of the season would have been met with a violent, angry outcry. Under the new rules, the Wizards aren’t punished for beating Miami in Game 82. They share the best odds of landing Cooper Flagg with Charlotte and the team with the worst record in the league:
1 — Utah Jazz, 14 percent odds
The Jazz landing Cooper Flagg would be the ideal way to hit the reset button for a franchise which has not been good for several seasons. The Jazz already have a Duke player on their roster, too: Kyle Filipowski. Rookie guard Isaiah Collier had a solid season for the team. Utah has some intriguing pieces which — if combined with Flagg — could instantly revitalize an organization which used to be an annual contender under former coach Jerry Sloan.
2025 NBA Draft Lottery
The lottery will be held on Monday, May 12. That’s when we will learn which team will be in position to draft Cooper Flagg.
