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Todd Zola
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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
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The surface stats don’t reflect how well Arizona Diamondbacks LHP Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched to open the season. His 4.86 ERA is high, but a 2.74 xFIP and 3.08 SIERA scream patience. Rodriguez sports the fourth highest strikeout rate among pitchers compiling at least 15 innings. On Thursday, he’ll face a Miami Marlins lineup with the ninth highest strikeout rate in MLB.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
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There is a lot of talk about how the Tampa Bay Rays offense should thrive in George Steinbrenner Field. Even though it is only for two series, the New York Yankees should also benefit as their lineup is built to succeed in Yankee Stadium, and they’ll be playing in a facsimile but with warmer temperatures helping the ball carry more than in the Bronx. Rays RHP Taj Bradley has fanned 14 in 12 home innings so far this season, but he’s induced fewer grounders than fly balls, which is worrisome. Bradley merits an active roster spot most of the time, with the Yankees being an exception.
Today’s best matchups for pitchers
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Giants hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.61 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Cardinals hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: A+ | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.72 ERA in this matchup.
Today’s worst matchups for pitchers
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: F | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.76 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.65 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.62 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Hitters to avoid on Thursday
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The San Francisco Giants are averaging the fourth most runs in the league, though the underlying factors indicate they’ve been more opportunistic than productive. On Thursday, they face Philadelphia Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez and the Giants lineup versus righties has a few holes. Look for Sanchez to continue the strong start to his season, at the expense of the Giants.
Today’s best matchups for hitters
Texas Rangers LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .344 wOBA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .342 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays LHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .330 wOBA in this matchup.
Today’s worst matchups for hitters
Philadelphia Phillies RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: F | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .285 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today’s top HR prop bets
Leody Taveras | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Taveras’ launch angle this season (31.4 degrees) is significantly higher than his 14.1 degrees angle of last year.
Jesus Sanchez | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.97 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.3) provides evidence that Sanchez has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his 19.9 actual HR/600.
Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Cruz’s 15.7% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.
Today’s top pitcher prop bets
JP Sears | UNDER 4.5 K (+120)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.52 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the worst ballpark in the league for strikeouts.
Andre Pallante | UNDER 4.5 K (-140)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.93 EV
One reason to bet this: Pallante’s 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph decline from last seasons 94.5-mph mark.
Andrew Heaney | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.09 EV
One reason to bet this: PNC Park ranks as the No. 22 ballpark in the league for strikeouts, according to my projections.
Today’s Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Angels @ Rangers | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 50% chance of NO RUN with a $0.36 EV
D-Backs @ Marlins | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $0.21 EV
Mariners @ Reds | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $0.94 EV
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