Yankees slugger Aaron Judge hit a deciding home run in the seventh inning of a 4-3 win over Kansas City on Wednesday, his first homer since April 4. Home runs tend to come in bunches for Judge, who went yard six times in a six-game stretch early in the season. On Thursday, Judge will face Rays starter Taj Bradley, who is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA with two home runs allowed in three starts. The latest MLB prop bets at FanDuel Sportsbook price Judge at +215 to go yard again, so should you add him to your MLB HR picks? You can also parlay Judge to hit a home run and the Yankees to win at +360 odds.
Athletics first baseman Tyler Soderstrom leads the majors with eight home runs and is +420 to hit his ninth of the season on Thursday, according to the latest MLB odds. Should you include him in your MLB home run bets? With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. It went 2-for-3 in HR bets Monday, hitting on Shohei Ohtani at +290 and Bobby Witt at +340, then hit Soderstrom for a +370 payout on Tuesday and Matt Mervis (+525) on Wednesday. The SportsLine Projection Model has nailed a HR prop in seven of the last nine days and is up 18.45 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Thursday. These three picks can be parlayed for +15713 odds and would pay out $785.63 on a $5 bet at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Ben Rice (+475)
Rice is one of three players in New York’s lineup with at least five home runs already this season, even though he has 11 fewer at-bats than Jazz Chisholm and eight fewer at-bats than Judge. The 26-year-old designated hitter hit a home run against San Francisco on Saturday before going yard against Kansas City on Monday. He had the day off on Wednesday due to the pitching matchup against a southpaw. Rice is facing Rays starter Taj Bradley, who allowed a .749 OPS to left-handed batters last season.
“We set the line for a Rice home run at +389, making +475 solid value,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “Rice is familiar with the Rays’ stadium as it doubles as the Yankees’ spring training park. He currently ranks 5th in the league in barrel rate, trailing only elite names like Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Jackson Merrill, and Pete Alonso.” BetMGM has the best price on this prop at +475.
Junior Caminero (+520)
Caminero leads Tampa Bay’s lineup with four home runs, and three of those have come in his last five games. He did not leave yard in his first eight games of the season, but he is seeing the ball particularly well right now. The 21-year-old has a favorable pitching matchup against a struggling rookie, so the model is including him in its MLB home run picks on Thursday.
“What makes him especially dangerous is his league-leading bat speed, even ahead of names like Ohtani, Judge, and Alvarez,” Fetner said. “He faces Will Warren, who has the second-highest home run allowed rate of all starters today—behind only Emerson Hancock. With the game being played in a hitter-friendly park, I like this matchup for Caminero.” Caminero is +520 FanDuel, the best price among major sportsbooks.
Logan O’Hoppe (+450)
O’Hoppe has not been in the starting lineup the last two games due to an illness, but he did enter Wednesday’s game as a pinch hitter. He will likely be back in the lineup on Thursday, especially since he has been one of the team’s best hitters this season. O’Hoppe hit five home runs in his first seven games of the campaign, and he has hit safely in all but five games.
“Tonight he gets a great matchup against Kumar Rocker, who hasn’t looked like the dominant college pitcher that he was since dealing with arm injuries. Rocker isn’t missing many bats right now, which gives O’Hoppe a great chance to find the seats. We set his HR line at +410 tonight,” Fetner said. Once again, it’s BetMGM offering the best price for O’Hoppe to hit a home run at +450.
Want more MLB picks for Thursday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
You can also see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a commanding 53-25 roll on baseball picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 53-25 roll.
Want more MLB predictions? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 8-2 on his last 10 MLB ATS picks and you can find all his latest selections now. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on an 8-2 MLB ATS run.
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