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One of the biggest variables when projecting prospects is the question of which tools will develop. Konnor Griffin is showing good enough bat-to-ball, but will he learn to lift the ball? Sebastian Walcott is hitting the ball hard and in the air, but will he improve his contact rates enough to be a superstar?
We will continue to monitor intriguing minor leaguers every week in our Statcast Standouts feature. But every once in a while, it’s fun to check in on the top performers and standard-setters in the big leagues. Here are five MLB players with impressive Statcast metrics, including two hitters who provide hope that the likes of Griffin and Walcott can one day also add plenty of power and increase their launch angles.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates
Nobody has ever hit a ball as hard as Oneil Cruz–including Giancarlo Stanton–in the Statcast era. Perhaps one day advanced AI can look through older camera footage and re-create Statcast metrics for Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas.
Let’s begin with Cruz’s 2024 stats:
This player card, with solid gold power metrics, but purple (i.e. bad) contact and discipline metrics epitomizes the power-over-hit prospect question. Will Yankees outfield Spencer Jones, who similarly has long levers, ever make enough contact to leverage his power? Cruz is perhaps providing some answers.
Despite a well-below-average contact rate and below-average launch angles, Cruz produced a 110 wRC+, meaning he was 10% more valuable than the average MLB hitter in 2024. But we could still dream on more. What if he increased those launch angles? What if he cut down on his chase rates? That kind of raw power, on batted balls 20 degrees or higher, is what 50-homer power is made of.
Let’s fast forward to 2025:
The biggest–and most important–changes are to his launch angles. Cruz’s average launch angle has increased from an average of 9.8 degrees to 16.4 degrees. While that’s only on 41 batted balls through Friday, it’s still a significant increase. There’s another significant detail that suggest this might be more than random variance: He’s making harder contact on fly balls than on all other batted ball types.
This is a somewhat nuanced analytical detail, so let’s break it down. At the top I break down exit velocity metrics into four categories. 90th EV and Max EV illustrate power potential and are quite stable from year to year. Average EV shows if a player consistently makes hard contact. Air EV, which some would say should be called Fly Ball EV, tells us how hard the player is hitting the ball on batted balls that could result in home runs (typically 20 degrees to 40 degrees). Players with swings optimized to hit home runs tend to have higher Air EVs than their average EVs.
This is a huge change year to year for Cruz. Last year his Air EV was 3 mph lower than his average. This year it’s 1.5 mph higher.
We can also examine launch angle on hard-hit balls, which explains what kind of launch angles the batter gets when they do everything right. Last year, Cruz’s hard-hit launch angle was about 2.3 degrees lower than his average launch angle. This suggested that when he got his best swings off, they were more groundball-oriented. He has evened those two figures out this season, with an above-average hard-hit launch angle.
It’s still early, and may not stick, but these types of swing path and timing adjustments can transform a batter with Cruz’s power from a 20-25-home run type to 50 home runs a year.
Cruz has made other subtle tweaks. He’s swinging a lot less overall, which has helped him avoid chasing breaking balls. He’s chasing less and now has an above-average chase rate. This has lowered his in-zone aggression overall, but he’s maintaining an above-average rate against fastballs. All of these changes have allowed Cruz to do a lot more damage on contact, especially in the zone. Now if he can figure out how to hit lefties next…
Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs
If Cruz was built in a lab to hit baseballs hard, Corbin Carroll is the mold-breaking prototype that proves players don’t need to be 6-foot-7 athletic freaks to hit the ball super hard. Here’s why he was already a very good player in 2024:
That’s above-average raw power, with 70 to 75-grade contact skills. That wasn’t good enough for Carroll, as he didn’t want to be an average damage-on-contact guy. He wanted to become Aaron Judge. Can a 5-foot-10 guy really transform himself into something resembling Judge, the undisputed king of damage on contact? Baseball is so wonderfully weird:
Ok, he’s not quite at Judge’s level (no one is), but he’s quite close on the exit velocity metrics and the contact metrics. Swing decisions are the biggest separator, but this is Carroll’s first year with this level of raw power. That he’s within a couple of ticks in Max EV and 90th EV is eye-opening, with equivalent launch angles.
There are a lot of numbers in these charts, so let’s hone in some of the important metrics, as Carroll’s massive increase in power hasn’t come free of charge.
First, the good:
- Maximum Exit Velocity: 111.5 mph to 115.8 mph, +4.3 mph
- 90th percentile Exit Velocity: 106 mph to 110.6 mph, +4.6 mph
- Average Exit Velocity and Fly Ball Velocity: Roughly +5 mph compared to 2024
- Average Launch Angle: 12 degrees to 15.2 degrees, +3 degrees
- Hard Hit Launch Angle: 8.6 degree to 15.8 degrees, +7.2 degrees
- Slugging on contact: .537 to .900, an increase of almost .400
- Bat speed: 73.7 mph to 75.2 mph, +1.5 mph
Carroll is hitting the ball way harder. His average bat speed is up, and he’s also increased his fast swing rate by 15% and his swing length by 0.3 feet. The data are painting a very clear picture with Carroll–he’s made the choice to swing a lot harder at the expense of his bat-to-ball and swing decisions.
Let’s break down what it’s cost him in the early going:
- Chase Swing Rate: 26.6% to 38.6%, +12% (lower is better)
- Zone Contact Rate: 87.6% to 82.8%, -4.8% (higher is better)
- Chase Contact Rate: 65.6% to 51.5%, -14%
This is all very new to Carroll, so it’s not surprising that he’s looking somewhat worse from a bat-to-ball and swing decision perspective. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if that starts to slowly return to 2024 levels, all while maintaining the same elite damage metrics.
Carroll’s transformation into a reasonable facsimile of Judge is astonishing. It proves that any player, even ones of smaller stature, has the potential to make massive gains in power. I’ve noticed this with at least three Triple-A players, who I’ll feature in my next Statcast Standouts piece. If you’re skeptical of what Carroll has done, don’t be. You can’t luck into his power metrics. The changes are real, and they’re spectacular.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
I was shocked when I pulled up Wyatt Langford’s card. It’s absurdly good. We often focus on exit velocities, for good reason. If we only looked at that, Langford would be merely a tick above-average, not particularly exciting.
There are precisely two players this season (minimum 100 pitches seen) who have both an average launch angle above 20 degrees, and a zone contact rate above 90%. One is Wyatt Langford, the other is Jonathan India, who has well-below-average raw power. It’s a unicorn combination of contact, raw power and optimized launch angles.
Why is this profile so incredible? Langford is essentially Max Muncy (Dodgers Edition), with elite bat-to-ball skills.
Langford’s top line damage metrics are shockingly close to Muncy’s across the board, but he’s doing that while making considerably more contact, against all pitch types. Muncy has a career 124 wRC+, including four seasons of 35 home runs or more. Now imagine if Muncy also had elite bat-to-ball. That’s Langford. If I had to choose one player that I would be somewhat confident could be a perennial .300 hitter with 30 or more home runs, it’s Langford.
Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics
When I watch Jacob Wilson hit, two things stand out. First, he looks anxious to swing. Second, he looks somewhat skinny by MLB standards. For Wilson, his otherworldly contact skills are both a blessing and a curse. His 84.8% chase contact rate is 28% better than the MLB average, which makes him an incredibly difficult guy to strike out. However, when he chases and makes contact (which is most of the time), he makes terrible contact.
The fix here is pretty straightforward–be more selective. Hitters with contact rates this good, especially on chase pitches, can afford to get to two strikes. But they have to be really good at damaging chase pitches, which Wilson has not been to this point. Given his major league pedigree, I’m projecting Wilson gets a lot better as he accumulates more major league experience. Wilson’s maximum exit velocity is very close to the major league median, and it’s likely that his other exit velocity metrics are being weighed down by his poor swing decisions.
This brings me to my second eye-test observation. Wilson looks like he can pack on a healthy amount of muscle in his lower body, which would help him tap into more power. If we believe the maximum exit velocity, average or better exit velocities might be within reach for him with proper training. I’m not expecting him to take a massive leap like Corbin Carroll, but even modest gains of 1-2 mph would make him a nightmare matchup.
Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays
Bo Bichette is setting himself up nicely in his final season before free agency, showing elite contact rates, with above-average raw power. He’s also the poster boy for why optimized launch angles are so important. If we ignored launch angles, he’d look a lot like Wyatt Langford. With below-average launch angles, he’s somewhat limited in his ability to hit home runs, maxing out at 29 in his best season, but still averaging almost 24 home runs per 162 games for his career. Bichette’s combination of exit velocities and contact rates are exceptional, and point to better days ahead.
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