Bears general manager Ryan Poles has traded down seven times on draft day and up only once.
The former could happen again, too — at least in theory. Earlier this month, Poles said the Bears weren’t exactly sure where the top nine picks were going to fall, but trading back was something he’d look into if his draft board broke that way.
“We’ll definitely weigh the option of, ‘Hey, if we can move back and collect a certain pick in this range, could that be really beneficial for us as well,’” said Poles, who will answer questions Tuesday in his annual pre-draft news conference at Halas Hall. “So, yeah, that’ll be in play.”
But will anyone want to move up? This year’s draft, which starts Thursday in Green Bay, Wisconsin, is defined by a few elite level prospects — the Bears have the number at less than 10 — followed by 75 or so players that profile as potential starters. The Bears have four selections that fall into the starter range — Picks 10, 39, 41 and 72.
Once the top tier is gone, though, the No. 10 player in the draft might be interchangeable with the No. 40 prospect. That limits any team’s motivation to make a major move up in the draft — and the Bears’ opportunities to trade down.
The Bears rounded out their roster well enough via free agency that they could draft almost any position but quarterback if that player falls out of the elite tier.
Miami quarterback Cam Ward, Colorado receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter and Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter figure to be long gone before No. 10. Tackles Will Campbell of LSU and Armand Membou at Missouri, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, Penn State tight end Tyler Warren and Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham better fit the Bears’ needs — if one of them falls to No. 10.
The Bears’ biggest need is at left tackle, where Braxton Jones, who is entering the final year of his contract, is recovering from ankle surgery. Each tackle prospect has questions, though. Campbell has short arms and Membou only played right tackle in college. Texas’ Kelvin Banks might end up as a guard down the line.
If the Bears want to fill the tackle spot, though, they won’t be able to wait until Day 2.
“If you are dead-set on getting an offensive tackle and you want to get your long-term left tackle, you’re going to want to do that with your first pick,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said.
This year’s draft is the first since the NFL-AFL merger in which no first-round picks have been traded. Perhaps the only way that changes is if a team moves up to draft Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. He’ll be an option for the Giants at No. 3, though they seem more likely to draft Carter, and perhaps for the Saints at No. 9, one spot ahead of the Bears.
If he’s not taken in the top 10, Sanders could fall into late in Round 1, with the Colts (14), Seahawks (18) and Steelers (21) the only teams left without an answer at quarterback. If one of those teams wants to move to the front of the line, they could call the Bears.
Another factor working against draft day trades: moving up in the first round will probably cost a second- or third-round pick, which is exactly where the sweet spot is this year.
The Bears have three such Day 2 picks — a number that might not change
“In a draft like this, I would love to be maintaining a lot of shots there in the second and third round,” Jeremiah said. “I think you’re going to find steady guys. I don’t know there’s that much difference in those numbers [compared] to what you’re looking at there in the teens in this year’s draft. ”
Once they address that in the first round, their options open up in the second at Nos. 39 and 41.
They have a low bar to clear and a lot of mistakes to clean up.
He was a legend at Thornton High School.
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