Every team in the majors is in action on Friday during a loaded MLB schedule, including a showdown between the Giants and Rangers at 10:15 p.m. ET. San Francisco first baseman Wilmer Flores ranks eighth in the majors in home runs (7), but he has only gone yard once in his last 12 games. He is facing Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, who has given up three homers in five starts this season. Flores is a +800 longshot to hit a home run on Friday at BetMGM Sportsbook due to the pitching matchup, so should you take a shot on him with your MLB HR bets? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 13-6 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It nailed all three of its home run bets on Wednesday, cashing a +9360 parlay. The model has called a HR prop in 11 of the last 17 days and is up 33.8 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +13650 odds and would pay out $1,365 on a $10 bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Anthony Santander, Blue Jays (+390)
Santander did not go yard in his first 14 games of the season, but he has hit two homers in the last two weeks. He has an excellent chance to pick up his third homer on Friday night at Yankee Stadium, where the short porch will play to his advantage. He is also facing a struggling starting pitcher, as Carlos Carrasco has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his five starts this season.
“Santander is in a bit of a slump over the last three games, but a soft throwing righty and a short porch could be what he needs to get going. Santander does most of his damage as a power hitter when hitting from the left side and has hit both of his HRs this season as a lefty-handed batter against right-handed pitchers,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said.
Ben Rice, Yankees (+500)
The Yankees enter the day tied with the Dodgers for the league lead in home runs (41), and Rice has accounted for six of New York’s long balls. He is batting .288 and hit a homer against Cleveland on Tuesday before recording one hit, two walks and two runs on Wednesday. Rice missed two games last weekend due to a bruised left elbow, but he did not show any negative signs in his return.
“+500 is a solid number for a player that ranks first in all of the MLB in hard hit % at 64.2%. Our model sets the line at +410 for Rice to hit a HR,” Fetner said.
Mark Vientos, Mets (+450)
Vientos needed 18 games to record his first home run of the season, but he left the yard in back-to-back games against the Cardinals last week. He has hit safely in eight of his last nine games, and he is back on the field following a groin injury last weekend. Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin has been prone to giving up home runs, as he allowed 29 last season and six already this season.
“Vientos is 0-9 in his career vs. Irvin, but he has just 1 K in those 9 ABs and is putting the ball in play. The wind is blowing out and its a somewhat warm day in Washington as this game ranks an 8 out of 10 in the home run index, so if a player gets a hold of the ball, expect it to carry,” Fetner said. DraftKings once again has the best line at +450.
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 75-35 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 7-3 in his last 10 MLB ML picks, and he has locked in his pick for multiple games on Friday.
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