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Virginia coach Brian O’Connor (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
The calendar has officially flipped to May, which means it’s the stretch run for college baseball teams vying for a spot in the 2025 NCAA Baseball Tournament.
This year, the NCAA Tournament will include 29 automatic bids, leaving 35 spots up for grabs.
Below is Baseball America’s first bubble watch of the year, where we take a closer look at the teams vying for at-large bids. Conferences that are projected to occupy three or more bids are listed first followed by teams pushing to give their leagues a second entry. You can see yesterday’s projected Field of 64 here.
ACC
The ACC looks poised to push at least 10 teams into the NCAA Tournament while staking a strong claim to multiple regional hosting slots. Clemson, North Carolina, NC State and Florida State are all in hosting positions today, with Louisville, Georgia Tech and even Wake Forest still in the hunt to join them. All seven are safely in the field. Meanwhile, Duke, Miami and Virginia Tech shape up as varying strengths of three-seeds. The bottom line? There’s not much bubble drama here—at least, not yet.
Locks: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Should be in: Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech
Work to do: Virginia, Notre Dame
Duke (30-15, 14-10; RPI: 42; SOS: 53)
The Blue Devils are effectively in with solid overall and conference win totals. But Duke has a thinner resume than in previous years, with just a 2-7 record against Quad I opponents and metrics that have dipped from past seasons. Still, it would be a surprise if it missed out.
Miami (27-18, 12-9; RPI: 33; SOS: 14)
After stumbling through March, Miami caught fire in April, going 12-4 with four straight series wins. A couple more ACC wins should lock things up, but the Hurricanes appear well on track to return to the postseason after last year’s absence.
Virginia Tech (27-18, 11-13; RPI: 40; SOS: 17)
The Hokies have the weakest footing among the “should be in” group, thanks to a slide in conference play—three straight weekend losses—and a sub-.500 ACC record. BA still has them in the field, but they’ll likely need to take care of business against Pitt and Virginia (think 4-2 or better) to stay there.
Virginia (26-16, 11-10; RPI: 75; SOS: 84)
This is unfamiliar territory for Brian O’Connor’s group. The Cavaliers are below water in RPI and SOS and don’t currently have enough quality wins to counteract that. They’ll need to close strong with series wins against Miami and Virginia Tech, plus a solid showing in the ACC Tournament, to get back in the conversation. Any further misstep could be fatal.
Notre Dame (24-18, 10-14; RPI: 50; SOS: 57)
Notre Dame’s record doesn’t inspire confidence, but its RPI and SOS keep it alive. If the Irish can win their final two series against Louisville and Miami they could sneak into the field. Failing that, they’ll need to make noise in the ACC Tournament to make up ground.
Big 12
The Big 12 doesn’t have the sheer volume of bids that other power conferences boast, but it remains positioned to push at least six teams into the NCAA Tournament—with an outside chance at seven. Arizona, Kansas, TCU and West Virginia are safe. Arizona State and Kansas State are in good shape, though not yet locks. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is the lone true bubble team left—and its path is steep.
Lock: Arizona, Kansas, TCU, West Virginia
Should be in: Arizona State, Kansas State
Work to do: Cincinnati
Arizona State (30-16, 14-7; RPI: 44; SOS: 45)
Even with 14 conference wins, Arizona State isn’t quite a lock just yet. The Sun Devils hover just outside the top 40 in both RPI and SOS, and still have to get through Baylor, Houston and Oklahoma State. Avoiding a series loss in at least two of those three would likely cement their spot in the field.
Kansas State (26-19, 12-9; RPI: 45; SOS: 55)
Like Arizona State, Kansas State is close to safe, but not quite there. Upcoming series against BYU, West Virginia and Cincinnati will determine their fate. Win two of the three, and the Wildcats are likely headed to their second straight NCAA Tournament—their first back-to-back appearance since 2009-11.
Cincinnati (24-20, 10-11; RPI: 57; SOS: 58)
Cincinnati’s path is narrow but not closed. The Bearcats don’t have enough wins yet, but their RPI keeps them clinging to the edge of the bubble. The problem? Their remaining schedule—at Kansas, at TCU, and home against Kansas State—is brutal. But if they somehow win all three series, they’ll likely force their way into the field.
Big Ten
The Big Ten hasn’t been a perennial power in recent years, but it could send multiple teams to regionals this season—and potentially one with hosting aspirations. Oregon, UCLA and USC are all safely in, while Iowa’s strange but dominant profile keeps it in strong position. Michigan still has work to do, but hasn’t been eliminated yet.
Lock: Oregon, UCLA, USC
Should be in: Iowa
Work to do: Michigan
Iowa (29-13, 20-4; RPI: 71; SOS: 175)
Iowa owns one of the most bizarre résumés in the country: a top-tier conference record paired with bottom-tier metrics. The Hawkeyes are running away with the Big Ten at 20-4, but their No. 71 RPI and 175 SOS make for an uneasy bubble case. A closing stretch against Washington, Oregon State and Oregon should boost their standing if they continue to win. A stumble could put an otherwise dominant league campaign in jeopardy.
Michigan (27-17, 11-10; RPI: 52; SOS: 60)
Michigan has a middle-of-the-pack profile with a sub-.500 mark (4-8) against Quad I-II opponents and just a seventh-place standing in the Big Ten. Still, series against Nebraska, Ohio State and Indiana provide opportunity. If the Wolverines can win all three and show well in the conference tournament, they’ll have a chance to secure their first NCAA bid under Tracy Smith.
SEC
Locks: Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Should be in: Florida, Texas A&M
Work to do: Mississippi State
Florida (30-16, 8-13; RPI: 19; SOS: 5)
For weeks, it looked like Florida was going to miss the tournament for the first time in head coach Kevin O’Sullivan’s nearly two-decade tenure, but now the Gators need to win four more games and they’re a virtual lock thanks to a host-like RPI of 19 and the No. 5 strength of schedule. The Gators are set to close out their regular season with series at South Carolina, at Texas and in Gainesville against Alabama. It would come as a surprise at this point if Florida didn’t make the field.
Texas A&M (25-19, 8-13; RPI: 38; SOS: 6)
Texas A&M moved back toward the bubble in Week 11 when it was swept by rival Texas in Austin but the Aggies still appear to be in fine shape. They need to win 4-5 of their remaining nine conference games to feel pretty good about where they stand thanks to a top-40 RPI and top-10 strength of schedule. Texas A&M can effectively count on three wins against Missouri, which is 0-21 in the league, and would need to find two more from series against LSU and Georgia to get to 13, which is a historically secure place to be for SEC teams.
Mississippi State (26-19, 7-14; RPI: 43; SOS: 12)
The Bulldogs just fired seventh-year head coach Chris Lemonis but still have something to play for as they aren’t out of the tournament picture quite yet. They have remaining series against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Missouri and need to win all three. If they do, they’re probably in.
Sun Belt
The Sun Belt has earned its reputation as one of the strongest mid-major conferences in the country, and it once again boasts multiple regional-caliber teams. But unlike past years, the drama in 2025 is minimal. Three teams have separated themselves clearly from the pack, and no others are close enough to make a bubble push.
Locks: Coastal Carolina, Troy, Southern Miss
Should be in: None
Work to do: None
Others to follow
Big East
Should be in: Xavier, Connecticut
Work to do: Creighton
The Big East has quietly pieced together a strong collective résumé in 2025, with two teams trending solidly toward at-large bids and a third lurking just outside the conversation. Xavier and UConn are both on solid footing, while Creighton’s best shot remains tied to the conference title.
Conference USA
Lock: Dallas Baptist
Should be in: None
Work to do: Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State
Conference USA looked primed for a two-bid season just a week ago, but that picture shifted quickly as Western Kentucky was swept by FIU, which dropped it from a projected two-seed to the wrong side of the bubble. The Hilltoppers’ strength of schedule (No. 202) simply isn’t strong enough to carry them without a regular-season title. To get back into the field, they’ll likely need to finish red-hot and secure a regular-season league title. Kennesaw State is also in the distance hunt with a top-60 RPI and top-20 strength of schedule but it holds a 22-22 overall record, which isn’t nearly strong enough to gain entry.
Southland Conference
Should be in: Southeastern Louisiana, UTRGV
Work to do: McNeese, Lamar
The Southland has been one of the more entertaining conference races in the country, and for once, it may be more than just a one-bid league. UTRGV is the Southland’s best at-large hope with a top-35 RPI and solid standing in the league. If it can finish strong but falls short in the conference tournament, there’s still a path to an at-large bid. But if the Vaqueros win the auto bid, the league likely stops at one. McNeese is lurking just behind UTRGV and could play its way into serious consideration with a strong finish. The Cowboys may need help from around the country, but their current metrics at least give them a shot. Both teams are still technically in the race, but their at-large hopes are dim without a conference title. Each likely needs to win the auto bid to reach the field.
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