LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — It’s too early for my Preakness picks, so let’s pivot to a topic that is always in the starting gate — college basketball.
I am not a fan of the “Way Too Early” college basketball rankings that writers routinely are inspired (or told) to post minutes after the nets are snipped at the NCAA Final Four.
The transfer portal is just heating up. Recruiting is ongoing. NBA decisions must be made. Seems like a contrived reach for web hits.
But if you tell me analytics are involved, I’ll pay attention. Especially if it involves the work of Bart Torvik, whose college basketball analytics have worked their way into favor with the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
Louisville | Kentucky | Indiana | Bozich & Crawford
As I waited for a decision on whether Sovereignty will or will not run in the Preakness May 17, I discovered Torvik has already plugged in the names of players who have committed to new programs for next season and shared his Way Too Early ratings for next season.
There is uplifting news to report: Kentucky and Louisville both made Torvik’s top 15 — and that was before the Monday morning announcement that Mark Pope added Croatian forward Andrija Jelavic to the Wildcats’ roster.
Indiana cracked the top 40, which is better than the ditch Mike Woodson parked the Hoosiers in March. Western Kentucky made the top 150.
Doug Davenport’s first Bellarmine University team sits at No. 295, a 45-spot jump from where the Knights finished last season.
I’ll begin this update with Louisville. The Cards sit No. 15 in the nation and third in the Atlantic Coast Conference, trailing (take a wild guess) Duke (No. 4) and North Carolina (No. 14).
The most interesting tidbit from Torvik’s analysis of the Cards is that returning forward J’Vonne Hadley earned the top overall offensive rating of 120. Torvik said he calculates offensive rating by dividing points produced by possessions used. That is the same number Hadley earned last season, when Torvik had James Scott (129.3) and Reyne Smith (123.7) as Louisville’s two best performers in that category.
Torvik’s formula forecasts that forward Kasean Pryor, who is returning from ACL surgery, will earn the team’s highest usage rate, along with freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr.
Kentucky earned the No. 12 rating, third in the Southeastern Conference behind Arkansas (No. 9) and pesky Tennessee (No. 11).
What happened to the defending national champions (Florida) and the SEC’s other Final Four program (Auburn)?
The Gators dropped to No. 20 and Auburn to No. 29.
Torvik’s formula gave the best offensive rating to Mouhamed Dioubate, a transfer from Alabama. He earned a 124, well ahead of guard Otega Oweh’s 114. But Oweh is forecast with the team’s highest usage rate. Maybe Jelavic, a 6-foot-11-inch forward who averaged 11 points and 7.4 rebounds I the Adriatic League, will improve UK’s ranking.
It’s essentially an entirely new team at Indiana. Torvik’s numbers slot the Hoosiers at No. 38 overall but 11th in the Big Ten, which appears to be positioned to overtake the SEC as the nation’s toughest conference next season.
These are the Big Ten teams ranked ahead of the Hoosiers: Purdue (three); Michigan (five); UCLA (six), Illinois (eight); Michigan State (17); USC (19); Ohio State (23); Wisconsin (26); Iowa (31) and Maryland (35).
New coach Darian DeVries and his assistants, which includes former U of L and IU assistant Kenny Johnson, worked overtime to pack the Indiana lineup with three-point shooters.
Lamar Wilkerson, a transfer from Sam Houston State, earned the highest ORTG (117) but forward Reed Bailey, who arrives from Davidson, has the highest projected usage rate.
Wilkerson, Bailey and Tucker DeVries (West Virginia) all made at least 41.5% of their shots from distance last season. That will be a strange site in Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, where IU has not ranked among the top 250 teams in three-point shooting percentage the last two seasons.
WKU ranks No. 147 overall and fifth in Conference USA at Torvik. Teagan Moore, who will be a sophomore, and Bryant Selebangue, a transfer from McNeese State, project as the Hilltoppers’ best players.
Bellarmine finished last in the ASUN last season. Torvik does not have the Knights ranked last next winter. Bellarmine is eighth, one spot behind Eastern Kentucky but ahead of West Georgia, Stetson, North Florida and Central Arkansas.
And who does Torvik have as the teams to beat next season?
The Houston team that gave the national title to Florida sits at No. 1. BYU, which landed top recruit A.J. Dybantsa, is second.
They’re followed by Purdue, Duke, Michigan, UCLA, Rick Pitino and St. John’s, Illinois, Arkansas and UConn to complete the Top 10.
Clip and save.
College Basketball Coverage:
BOZICH | The transfer portal is ruining college basketball — or saving it
CRAWFORD | Louisville big man James Scott has entered the transfer portal
CRAWFORD | Kasean Pryor gives Louisville a major frontcourt lift with return
CRAWFORD | Mr. Basketball exits: Kentucky’s Travis Perry enters transfer portal
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