Panthers at Maple Leafs, Eastern Conference 2nd Round Game 5 preview

TORONTO — The Toronto Maple Leafs will attempt to continue the trend of the home team holding serve and take the series lead in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Second Round at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET; CBC, TVAS, SN, ESPN).

The best-of-7 series is tied 2-2, with the home team having won each game; the Maple Leafs took Games 1 and 2 on home ice and the Panthers were victorious in Games 3 and 4 at Amerant Bank Arena, including a 2-0 win in Game 4 on Sunday.

Toronto is 4-1 at home this postseason and can reach five home wins in a single playoff year for the first time since 2004, when they were 5-2.

“I think we just enjoy being at home,” center John Tavares said Wednesday. “We have a tremendous fan base here and the energy that the game provides and that they provide us.

“I think it’s all about sticking to your process, your routines and not trying to change a whole lot or overthink things a whole lot. Just go about the way you build your games.”

One aspect Toronto will need to address is staying out of the penalty box; the Maple Leafs took four minor penalties in in the first period of Game 4, and forward Carter Verhaeghe scored on the power play to give the Panthers a 1-0 lead.

“I thought discipline hurt us last game, especially in the first period,” Toronto coach Craig Berube said. “We’ve got to be disciplined. It’s important. I know there’s some penalties you are going to get but we need to be smart.

“I thought we took too many undisciplined penalties last game.”

The Panthers will be without forward Evan Rodrigues, who is day to day following a hit by Maple Leafs defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson in Game 4. Rodrigues has been back on the ice twice since then, including during Florida’s morning skate Wednesday, but won’t play. Forward Jesper Boqvist will enter the lineup in his place.

“[Boqvist] brings a lot of skill, a lot of speed, like we’ve seen this whole year,” Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov said. “Playing against him for years, you’ve seen the scale of that speed, and now you see it up close. Every practice, every game he has, he has a lot of skill, so excited to see him in.”

Florida has an opportunity to win its third straight and take a 3-2 series lead; since the 2022 postseason, the Panthers have recorded eight winning streaks of at least three games in in a single series, including three straight against Toronto during the 2023 second round.

When a best-of-7 Stanley Cup Playoff series is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 holds an all-time series record of 237-62 (.793).

Here’s a breakdown of Game 5:

Panthers: It took a while for Florida to get its championship synchronicity in order but the defending Stanley Cup champions exhibited their pedigree in Game 4, especially evident in its offensive zone shoot-ins. The chemistry the Panthers showed in rimming pucks in along the boards to the exact spot where a charging teammate on the far side of the rink was heading to often worked perfectly. Unless the Maple Leafs can show better anticipation to intercept those shoot-ins, that game plan will continue to be successful for Florida.

Maple Leafs: The net-front presence that was so effective in blocking goalie Sergei Bobrovsky’s vision through the first three games went missing in Game 4. Part of that was because of a lack of offensive zone time, a direct result of Toronto’s penalty issues. At the same time, most of Bobrovsky’s 23 saves came on shots he had a clear view of. Tavares and forward Matthew Knies did a reasonable job of screening through the first three games, but they need some help from fellow forwards Bobby McMann and Auston Matthews in that area.

Number to know: 35. That’s the amount of shots Matthews has taken through 10 games of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He has scored twice for a 5.7 percent shooting percentage.

What to watch for: Toronto did a good job of completing stretch passes to compensate for Florida’s swarming pressure through the first three games. The Panthers certainly tightened up their coverage in that regard in Game 4, creating turnovers and limiting the Maple Leafs’ rush chances off such transition. Now it’s time to see if Toronto makes a counter-move and reverts to shorter passes and dumping more pucks in, the type of north/south philosophy Berube has been preaching all season.

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