Fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups featuring Colt Keith, Logan Henderson and more

We’re deep enough into the fantasy baseball season that most of us are looking at rosters only partially resembling the team we originally drafted. Since roster churn is the name of the game, I’m running it back all season with your favorite speculator piece implementing my patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners … today.

Going position by position, I mine my favorite player stat combinations regarding control, batted ball quality and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them together to identify some cheap gems to grab before the squares figure it out next week. At the bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, two-start pitchers and speculative adds.

Access The Athletic’s guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.

Hitters

When it comes to hitting, opportunity may be king, but we still need production, which comes from underlying skills. Scores of studies have proven the impact of exit velocity and its direct relationship with slugging percentage, so raw power is always a great place to start. The list below utilizes contact frequency and quality, paired with advanced statistics to identify underlying hitting skills.

Identifying available underlying hitting skills

Hitters in this table have +80% contact, +40% hard-hit, a +.340 expected weighted on-base average and at least 35 plate appearances in the past 21 days.

At only 22 years old, Detroit infielder Colt Keith showed plenty of promise last year in his rookie season. However, a brutal start to 2025  — 85 PA, .171 BA, 8 R, 3 RBI, 0 HR, 0 SB, 63 wRC+ — started to cost him playing time, spawning drops across the fantasy universe. Like they say, sometimes you have to break the seal to find the flow. Since connecting for his first home run on April 30, Keith’s mashed the baseball — 43 PA, .316 BA, 13 R, 9 RBI, 4 HR, 0 SB, 17% Barrel, .489 xwOBA, 196 wRC+ — earning an every-day spot in the top-third of a very good Tigers lineup. Currently just 19% rostered on Yahoo, Keith’s on a short list of players who could work their way into a universal role before the break.

Analyzing MLB is all about risk tolerance across different sample sizes. Every year, one of my favorite adds is the universally drafted player who face-plants so badly that the fantasy world becomes convinced he’s forgotten how to hit. Enter Joc Pederson, the Rangers’ new veteran DH. Brought in as a power supply, Pederson couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start, going 3-for-63 to start 2025 (.052 BA, .210 OPS). Woof! One glance at our table above shows the rumblings of an upcoming breakout and potential return to peak power. Over the past three weeks, Pederson has massively cut down the whiffs (80.5% Contact) and made frequent quality contact (52.6% Hard Hit) to produce an elite expected weighted on-base average (.413). Finally hitting his first home run earlier this week, Joc should have the worst behind him as a cheap add for power-starved fantasy squads.

The preseason hype train for Cubs rookie 3B Matt Shaw exploded out of the station as soon as Chicago announced the 23-year-old would break camp with the club. Well, MLB is extremely difficult and Cubs brass quickly decided Shaw needed more seasoning after a pretty horrid 19-game sample to start the season — 68 PA, .172 BA, 11 R, 3 RBI, 1 HR, 0 SB, 63 wRC+. Over the next month, Shaw has done nothing but produce for Triple-A Iowa — 89 PA, .270 BA, 16 R, 9 RBI, 2 HR, 5 SB, 125 wRC+. With journeyman Jon Berti getting starts at third base for a struggling lineup, it shouldn’t be long until Shaw’s number gets called again. Act now if your roster can afford a brief stash.

One of fantasy managers’ most common errors is complacency, usually on better teams. Many of us have been there — a roster’s performing well, full of noteworthy names, but we might not notice someone in the active lineup losing playing time. Now, that doesn’t mean it’s necessarily time to cut these guys, but losing at-bats is never a good thing. It gave me the idea to start tracking notable players who are losing opportunities.

Noteworthy hitters losing playing time

• Heston Kjerstad (OF, BAL)
• Connor Wong (C, BOS)
• Luis Rengifo (2B, LAA)
• Christopher Morel (OF, TB)
• Tim Tawa (2B, ARI)
• Matt Mervis (DH, MIA)
• Jo Adell (OF, LAA)
• Joey Ortiz (SS, MIL)
• Jeff McNeil (2B, NYM)
• Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B, SF)
• Jordan Walker (OF, STL)
• Tommy Pham (OF, PIT)
• Jhonkensy Noel (OF, CLE)
• Brandon Lockridge (OF, SD)

Top hitter waiver wire adds, by position

Catcher

1. Iván Herrera (STL): 10+ teams
2. Francisco Alvarez (NYM): 10/12 teams
3. Bo Naylor, (CLE): 12+ teams
4. Carson Kelly (CHC): 12/15 teams
5. Edgar Quero (CHW): 15+ teams
6. Jonah Heim (TEX): 15+ teams
7. Elias Díaz (SD): 15+ teams
8. Carlos Narváez (BOS): AL only
9. Jose Trevino (CIN): NL only

First Base

1. Jake Burger (TEX): 10+ teams
2. Nick Kurtz (ATH): 10/12 teams
3. Carlos Santana (CLE): 12+ teams
4. Ty France (MIN): 12+ teams
5. Gavin Sheets (SD): 12/15 teams
6. Michael Toglia (COL): 12/15 teams
7. Andrew Vaughn (CHW): 15+ teams
8. Eric Wagaman (MIA): 15+ teams
9. Zach Dezenzo (HOU): 15+ teams
10. Matt Gorski (PIT): NL only
11. Justin Turner (CHC): NL only
12. Rowdy Tellez (SEA): AL only
13. Romy Gonzalez (BOS): AL only

Second Base

1. Colt Keith (DET): 10+ teams
2. Hyeseong Kim (LAD): 10/12 teams
3. Gavin Lux (CIN): 12+ teams
4. Caleb Durbin (MIL): 12/15 teams
5. Luisangel Acuña (NYM): 15+ teams
6. Jorbit Vivas (NYY): 15+ teams
7. Christian Koss (SF): 15+ teams
8. Luis Urías (ATH): AL only
9. David Hamilton (BOS): AL only
10. Adael Amador (COL): NL only
11. Javier Sanoja (MIA): NL only

Shortstop

1. Masyn Winn (STL): 10+ Teams
2. Trey Sweeney (DET): 10/12 Teams
3. Javier Báez (DET): 12+ teams
4. Gabriel Arias (CLE): 12/15 teams
5. Chase Meidroth (CHW): 15+ teams
6. Jordan Lawlar (ARI): 15+ teams
7. Ezequiel Duran (TEX) :AL only
8. Taylor Walls (TB): AL only
9. Jared Triolo (PIT): NL only
10. Alan Trejo (COL): NL only

Third Base

1. Josh Jung (TEX): 10+ Teams
2. Brooks Lee (MIN): 10/12 teams
3. Connor Norby (MIA): 12+ teams
4. Miguel Vargas (CHW): 12+ teams
5. Daniel Schneemann (CLE): 12/15 teams
6. Santiago Espinal (CIN): 15+ teams
7. Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT): 15+ teams
8. Brett Baty (NYM): 15+ teams
9. Ben Williamson (SEA): AL only
10. Emmanuel Rivera (BAL): AL only
11. José Tena (WAS): NL only
12. Jon Berti (CHC): NL only

Outfield, 10/12 teams

1. Kyle Stowers (MIA)
2. Jordan Beck (COL)
3. Trent Grisham (NYY)
4. Mike Yastrzemski (SF)
5. Trevor Larnach (MIN)

Outfield, 12/15 teams

1. Alex Verdugo (ATL)
2. Addison Barger (TOR) ^^^
3. Jonathan India (KC)
4. Jesús Sánchez (MIA)
5. Zach McKinstry (DET)
6. Ryan O’Hearn (BAL)
7. Andrew Benintendi (CHW)
8. Pavin Smith (ARI)
9. Daulton Varsho
10. Alec Burleson (STL)

Outfield 15+ teams only

1. Evan Carter (OF, TEX)
2. Josh H. Smith (TEX)
3. Eli White (ATL)
4. Tyrone Taylor (NYM)
5. Kameron Misner (TB)
6. JJ Bleday (ATH)
7. Jake Meyers (HOU)
8. Max Kepler (PHI)
9. Harrison Bader (MIN)
10. Brooks Baldwin (CHW)
11. Angel Martínez (CLE)
12. Mickey Moniak (COL)
13. Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
14. Nolan Jones (CLE)
15. Jordan Walker (STL)
16. Heston Kjerstad (BAL)
17. James Outman (LAD)
18. Drew Waters (KC)
19. Kyle Isbel (KC): AL only
20. Miguel Andujar (ATH): AL only
21. Michael A. Taylor (CHW): AL only
22. Jo Adell (LAA): AL only
23. Luis Matos (SF): NL only
24. Alek Thomas (ARI)): NL only
25. Alexander Canario (PIT): NL only

*** = Prioritize for speed

^^^ = Riser

Graduating class

Players from previous articles who are no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) and should be rostered first

• Hunter Goodman (C, COL)
• Jacob Wilson (SS, ATH)
• Maikel Garcia (3B, KC)
• Andy Pages (OF, LAD)
• Masyn Winn (SS, STL)
• Jackson Holliday (SS, BAL)
• Jorge Polanco (2B/3B, SEA)
• Zach Neto (SS, LAA)
• Jung Hoo Lee (OF, SF)

Hitter stash candidates

• Matt Shaw (3B, CHC)
• Roman Anthony (OF, BOS)
• Marcelo Mayer (SS, BOS)
• Carson McCusker (OF, MIN)

Pitchers

As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are suppressing runs by keeping runners off base and striking out batters. Though simply showing up on this list so early may be noise, there’s an argument that this combination of skills signals an immediate call to action.

Identifying available underlying pitching skills

Pitchers in this table have a ≤3.50 skills independent ERA, ≤1.20 WHIP, +18.0% K-BB rate, with a minimum of 10 IP in the past 30 days.

Major League debuts as impressive as Milwaukee’s rookie righty Logan Henderson are few and far between, and the fact he’s rostered in just one-third of all fantasy leagues is borderline criminal. Henderson followed up a dominant MiLB career — 203.2 IP, 3.00 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 26.9% K-BB — by exploding on the scene in two phenomenal starts thus far. The 23-year-old is quickly establishing himself as a strike-throwing machine (33.5% Ball), using a classic fastball-changeup combination to strike out an extraordinary 40% of batters faced thus far. While questions surrounding role presented cause for concern a few days ago, Jose Quintana’s recent visit to the IL should clear the runway for a rest-of-season takeoff. Henderson’s a priority add across all formats of any size.

Despite already headlining a previous piece, Gunnar Hoglund occupying half of our underlying skills list is worthy of reiteration. Oakland’s top pitching prospect has performed very well from a skills perspective, combining a good four-seamer with lots of whiff-inducing spin and two devastating secondaries (minimum 37% Whiff). Sure, he just surrendered four earned runs, but it was against the vaunted Dodgers — a start sharp managers would, could and should have avoided anyway. With starting pitching in short supply, expect Hoglund’s roster percentage to climb weekly until it’s universal.

Top waiver wire pitcher adds

Finding Mr. Right: Starters who could stick all year

1. Zebby Matthews (MIN)
2. Gunnar Hoglund (ATH)
3. Logan Henderson (MIL) ^^^
4. Will Warren (NYY) ^^^
5. AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL)
6. Cade Horton (CHC)
7. Andrew Abbott (CIN) ^^^
8. Hayden Wesneski (HOU)
9. Matthew Liberatore (STL)
10. Griffin Canning (NYM)
11. Lucas Giolito (BOS)
12. Ben Casparius (LAD)
13. Hunter Dobbins (BOS) ^^^

Team Streamers: Hold and deploy from the bench

1. David Peterson (NYM)
2. Emerson Hancock (SEA)
3. Landen Roupp (SF)
4. Ryan Gusto (HOU)
5. Sean Burke (CHW)
6. Shane Smith (CHW)
7. Ben Brown (CHC)
8. José Soriano (LAA)
9. Landon Knack (LAD)
10. Grant Holmes (ATL)
11. Mitchell Parker (WAS)

One-and-done: Pitch-and-ditch desperation plays

1. Luis L. Ortiz (CLE)
2. Mitch Keller (PIT)
3. JP Sears (ATH)
4. Colin Rea (CHC)
5. Logan T. Allen (CLE)
6. Chris Paddack (MIN)
7. Andrew Heaney (PIT)
8. Nick Martinez (CIN)
9. Andre Pallante (STL)
10. Michael Lorenzen (KC)
11. Jonathan Cannon (CHW)
12. Tyler Anderson (LAA)
13. Aaron Civale (MIL)
14. Cade Povich (BAL)
15. Cooper Criswell (BOS)
16. Edward Cabrera (MIA)
17. Michael Soroka (WAS)
18. Jordan Hicks (SF)
19. Jake Irvin (WAS)
20. Chase Petty (CIN)
21. Jack Kochanowicz (LAA)
22. Zack Littell (TB)
23. J.T. Ginn (ATH)
24. Chad Patrick (MIL)
25. Stephen Kolek (SD)

^^^ = Riser

Pitcher stash candidates

• Cade Horton (CHC) ^^^
• Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Eligible to come off the 60-day IL on May 18, Dave Roberts said Kershaw’s next rehab outing on Sunday for OKC could be his last one.
• Bubba Chandler (PIT)
• Andrew Painter (PHI) ^^^
• Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
• Ben Casparius (LAD)
• David Festa (MIN)
• Noah Cameron (KC)

Relievers

1. Emilio Pagán (CIN)
2. Luke Weaver (NYY)
3. Porter Hodge (CHC)
4. David Bednar (PIT)
5. Zach Agnos (COL)
6. Shelby Miller (ARI)
7. Will Vest (DET)
8. José Alvarado (PHI)
9. Camilo Doval (SF)
10. Tommy Kahnle (DET)
11. Abner Uribe (MIL)
12. Fernando Cruz (NYY)

Graduating class

Players from previous articles who are no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) and should be rostered first

• Jack Leiter (TEX)
• Max Meyer (MIA)
• Tyler Mahle (TEX)
• Kris Bubic (KC)

Two-start pitchers next week:

(Top photo of Colt Keith: Luiza Moraes / Getty Images)

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