Profiling the Red Wings’ top prospects: High, median and low NHL comparables

Most of the intrigue around the Detroit Red Wings this offseason revolves around what general manager Steve Yzerman will do to finally get his team over the playoff hump next season.

That’s for good reason: Detroit has missed the postseason for nine straight years, and a fan base that has been plenty patient is ready to see some results. And it does feel like this could be the summer the Red Wings up their aggression.

But in the longer view, some of the most important factors in whether the Red Wings can build a sustainable contender are already in their farm system. Even after including Marco Kasper and Simon Edvinsson as full-time NHL players last season, Detroit still has four more top-20 picks percolating in a pipeline that also features real depth.

Prospects, though, always come with a range of potential outcomes. Some may hit big. Others may bust. Most will land somewhere in between. So what is that range of outcomes for Detroit’s top prospects?

That was the subject of a recent mailbag question from subscriber Grant L., who wanted to know the ceiling, floor and reasonable expectation for the Red Wings’ top young players. It’s a great question, and while it was a little larger than I could fit in the mailbag, I felt like it was worth an article of its own.

There are a couple of things to note before we dive in. I limited this to only skaters, as I don’t feel confident enough to give proper stylistic or technical comparisons on goalies. That takes two of Detroit’s top prospects (Sebastian Cossa and Trey Augustine) out of the mix. I also didn’t go very deep into the pipeline here, sticking to who I see as the top prospects in the system. This is to avoid setting unrealistic expectations or straining too much for comparables.

As a result, there are plenty of prospects in the system who are not represented in this article that I think will play in the NHL someday. I just wanted to limit it to the prospects I was most sure of.

Here’s where I landed.

Nate Danielson

Higher-end: Roope Hintz

Median: Pavel Zacha

Lower-end: Christian Dvorak

Danielson has an excellent skill set for an NHL center. He has size, skates well and has slick hands, all while playing responsible hockey. That meant there were a lot of potential comparables available, which speaks to the many paths to success a player of that profile can find.

The best case is probably something like Hintz, a great-skating two-way center who may not be the flashiest but plays a major role for a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. It would take some things to go right for Danielson to get to Hintz’s goal-scoring totals (he’s hit 37 twice), but remember this is the higher-end comp, and Hintz’s stat line this year of 28 goals and 67 points is within the range of plausible outcomes for Danielson. Hintz does have an inch on Danielson, but he’s a great example of how size, skating and smarts can add up to a highly impactful two-way forward.

And the median outcome comparable Zacha is a similar story. He hasn’t put up as gaudy a collection of point totals with career highs of 21 goals and 59 points, but he’s twice been a top-four scorer on a team that finished with more than 100 points, and he earned Selke votes in 2024. Zacha was at his best on teams that already had their big-time scorers, but in Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat, the Red Wings have some good long-term offensive pieces in place. I also think it’s notable that Zacha played a lot of wing in 2022-23. I wonder if Danielson could break into the league in a similar role.

As for the safer outcome, I felt Christian Dvorak typifies a reliable third-line center who chips in steady offense and brings mostly good defensive impacts, though he’s not overly physical. I think Danielson should have more offense in him, considering Dvorak has never reached 40 points in an NHL season, but it’s fair to note Danielson’s production hasn’t consistently matched his tools so far.

Some others I considered at various levels of the comparison range included Elias Lindholm (who was Corey Pronman’s draft year comp for Danielson), Chandler Stephenson, Ryan McLeod and JT Compher. That speaks to how many players with this general profile have worked their way into big roles for their NHL teams — and why I think Danielson will do the same.

Michael Brandsegg-Nygård

Higher-end: Zach Hyman

Median: Jake Neighbours

Lower-end: Vasily Podkolzin

Brandsegg-Nygård strikes me as a classic playoff-style player, and he showed that this season in multiple leagues. He more than doubled his regular-season production in the SHL playoffs (going from .26 to .54 points per game), and then came over and made an impact in the AHL playoffs too, with two goals and three points in three games for the Griffins. That speaks to his profile as a heavy, physical player with a high-end shot and a nose for the net.

That gives him big-time scoring potential, especially if he can play with linemates who can get him the puck. Hyman stood out as what that can look like, and Brandsegg-Nygård’s shot is even better. Even if you take out Hyman’s outlier 54-goal season a year ago, there are a lot of very productive years on his ledger, mainly by being a fearless, dogged competitor with the smarts and touch to find and capitalize on opportunities. He’s also been a consistent force in the playoffs. He’s listed as the high-end comp because the 70-plus point seasons he’s had in Edmonton are lofty, but based on the tools, I think it’s pretty reasonable.

Neighbours is still young, so that may obscure the picture a bit, but he fits the definition of a big-bodied scorer who’s willing to bang bodies. He already has multiple 20-plus goal seasons on his resume at age 23 and put up nearly a point per game in a short-lived playoff run for St. Louis. I think Brandsegg-Nygård’s skating is better than Neighbours’ and I considered Warren Foegele instead, but I felt the rest of the profile made enough sense to go with it anyway.

That said, highly-touted prospects who blend physicality and scoring don’t always translate those tools immediately, and Podkolzin is an example of the lower range of outcomes, at least so far. Like Neighbours, he’s still young, and the former No. 10 pick has had a couple of solid NHL seasons but hasn’t yet been the consistent force you’d hope based on his skill set. That said, he’s found a way to be more impactful for the Oilers in the postseason, which tracks with the theme here as well.

Axel Sandin-Pellikka

Higher-end: Vince Dunn

Median: Shayne Gostisbehere

Lower-end: Adam Boqvist

There’s a lot of excitement around Sandin-Pellikka, and for good reason. He’s had a near-historic level of offensive success for a junior-aged SHL defenseman and has twice been named the best defenseman at the World Junior Championship. He looks like he’ll develop into an important piece for the Red Wings blue line, which could still use an elite power-play quarterback and puck mover.

I’ve used Brandon Montour as my comp for Sandin-Pellikka before, and I still think he may get there because he does play hard for his size. But I’m going to pivot slightly to Montour’s Seattle Kraken teammate Vince Dunn — another high-offense blueliner who has worked his way into major minutes. Dunn may not be one of the truly elite offensive defensemen in the league, but he still has a 64-point season on the ledger, for which he earned fringe Norris consideration in 2023, and is a reliable producer thanks in part to an impressive goal-scoring ability.

The key to separating the high-end comps (Dunn or Montour) and the median (Gostisbehere) is the usage. Whereas Dunn and Montour are trusted enough defensively to be major-minute defensemen, Gostisbehere has settled in as more of a power-play specialist with third-pair deployment at five-on-five. If Sandin-Pellikka struggles a bit with the defensive side of the game in North America, it’s possible he could end up in that kind of role, too. And that would still be a fine outcome, as Gostisbehere is a very good NHL player. How much did the Red Wings miss him on the breakout last season?

There’s a reason teams tend to be wary of smaller offensive defensemen, though, and Boqvist (a former top-10 pick) is a reminder that not all of them can translate the offense in the world’s hardest league. Boqvist is still in the NHL, but partly due to injuries, he’s struggled to become an impactful player and is now on his fourth team. That said, I do think Sandin-Pellikka’s track record in pro hockey is a good indicator that he will find more success.

Carter Mazur

Higher-end: Ridly Greig

Median: Parker Kelly

Lower-end: N/A

It’s not hard to figure out the flavor of Mazur’s profile. Both Greig and Kelly are high-grade NHL pests with some scoring touch who kill penalties and aren’t afraid to throw their bodies around despite not being huge.

The main difference is in the offense and role. Greig plays about 17 minutes a night in a top-nine role for the Senators (and had 34 points this year at age 22), and could move higher up the lineup in time. Meanwhile, Kelly is a fourth-liner for the Avalanche who typically plays between 11 and 13 minutes a night and has a career high of 19 points.

It wouldn’t shock me if Mazur reached or surpassed Kelly’s statistical benchmarks as early as next season, but the key is health, and that’s one reason the lower-end comparable is listed as not applicable. The low end of Mazur’s projection would be if he’s not able to escape the injury struggles that have followed him for the last two seasons.

Mazur has proven to be a warrior, though, diligently putting in the work to come back from those injuries while still playing a fearless brand of hockey. And while the names above aren’t as flashy as his first-round counterparts in this article, both play a real role for playoff teams. That, to me, is what Mazur can be for the Red Wings — as long as he stays in the lineup.

(Top photo of Michael Brandsegg-Nygård by Nicolas Carillo / Grand Rapids Griffins)

This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.