The Tulane Green Wave football team is looking to capitalize on the success under head coach Jon Sumrall in his first season.
The team finished the season with a record of 9-5, suffering losses in both the American Conference Championship and the Gasparilla Bowl. However, this marked their third consecutive season reaching the league title game.
With a third straight season of nine wins or more, it marks the longest streak in program history.
While nearly all the offensive star power needed to be replaced in the transfer portal, it appears the Green Wave have made enough moves to be considered legitimate contenders this upcoming college football season.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly created a predictive model, SP+ rankings, that rates teams based on their efficiency and strength. The model looks at returning production, recent recruiting, and recent team history.
With FBS teams averaging 19 more transfers this offseason than last, which is a 40% jump, Connelly updated his post-spring SP+ projections for the upcoming season.
Despite all the unanswered questions on the team, Tulane’s No. 48 ranking should be encouraging.
The quarterback competition to replace Darian Mensah will continue into the fall. The running back room showed a lot of promise in spring but has a ton of production to make up for losing Makhi Hughes.
There’s no clear No. 1 tight end after Alex Bauman transferred to the Miami Hurricanes. All three leading receivers, Mario Williams, Yulkeith Brown, and Dontae Fleming, all graduated.
The unknown on offense is offset by a lot of returning defensive stars, in addition to what’s expected to be one of the better defensive lines in years.
Importantly, Connelly also made slight adjustments for a fourth factor this time: coaching changes. Those led to marginal upward or downward bumps for those teams.
The Green Wave, under the leadership of Sumrall and with both offensive coordinator Joe Craddock and defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato retained, are not among those teams affected by coaching changes.
In the current chaotic college football landscape, Tulane’s stability is invaluable.
Tulane ranked highest in the American conference, ahead of notable competitors — No. 53 Memphis, No. 63 UTSA, No. 67 Army West Point, and No. 68 Navy.
Not only that, but the only opponents they’ll face this season that are ranked higher are No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 41 Duke.
Now, offseason numbers only matter for so much. However, the model has reliability and presents a strong opportunity for the Green Wave this season.
Based on those rankings, they should be expected to beat conference opponents. However, should they be able to knock off the Rebels or Blue Devils, they should shoot up in contention for the College Football Playoff spot.
Tulane hasn’t beaten a Power Four opponent in the regular season since the Kansas State Wildcats in 2022 and the USC Trojans later that year in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.
There will always be a question of what the Ole Miss loss would have looked like in 2023 had quarterback Michael Pratt played.
The team nearly beat the Wildcats last season. But nearly beating won’t do much for the team’s goals this season.
It’s clear that a Power Four win against those two ranked opponents would legitimize a lot of the potential that’s clearly garnered respect in the Green Wave.
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