Image credit:
Georgia head coach Wes Johnson (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The NCAA Tournament bracket was announced Monday afternoon, and unlike in years past, this year’s bracket came with almost no surprises.
Baseball America correctly projected 63 of the 64 teams selected, with the lone miss being Kentucky, our first team out. Xavier, which appeared in our final bracket projection, did not make the field.
With the official bracket now in hand, we’ve identified six regionals that appear particularly vulnerable to early chaos when tournament play begins on Friday, May 30.
No. 7 Georgia
Regional opponents: Duke, Oklahoma State, Binghamton
Foley Field is one of the sport’s most notorious launching pads, especially to right field, where even low-90s exit velocities at the right angle can leave the yard. Georgia has leaned into that identity, entering the postseason as the top home-run-hitting team in the country. But to survive its own regional, it’ll have to outslug a trio of teams that can do plenty of damage themselves.
Duke ranks No. 14 nationally in home runs and brings a pair of pull-happy lefthanded mashers in AJ Gracia and Jake Hyde. Oklahoma State, tied for 39th in homers, counters with Nolan Schubart, a lefthanded slugger with legitimate 70-grade power and one of the most dangerous bats in this year’s draft from a pure power standpoint. Even fourth-seeded Binghamton, though clearly the underdog, ranks inside the top 80 nationally in long balls and could get in on the action.
What none of the top three teams in this pod bring, though, is truly elite pitching—only Oklahoma State ranks in the top 50 nationally in ERA. Georgia still profiles as a good bet to reach back-to-back super regionals, but this grouping feels like a powder keg. If the wind’s blowing out, expect fireworks in Athens, which means more variance and unpredictability.
No. 8 Oregon State
Regional opponents: TCU, USC, Saint Mary’s
Oregon State was the most surprising team to land a top eight national seed, as it accumulated a 6-10 record against tournament opponents and a strength of schedule that ranked just 42nd nationally in its first year as an independent. The way we see it, the Beavers snuck onto the top line and raised some eyebrows in the process.
Their reward? An exceptionally tough draw. TCU, which was on the fringes of host contention itself, looms as a major threat. The Horned Frogs went 14-11 against teams in the field and are anchored by Tommy LaPour, a flamethrower who’s taken on a true workhorse role atop the rotation. TCU also finished conference tournament week ranked No. 19 nationally in ERA—best among the regional’s participants.
USC and Saint Mary’s don’t bring the same firepower. The Trojans limped to the finish line with a 2-6 record in their final eight games, while Saint Mary’s enters as a traditional four-seed. But Oregon State can’t afford to look past anyone—especially not a TCU team that has the arms and resume to make things uncomfortable in Corvallis.
No. 9 Florida State
Regional opponents: Northeastern, Mississippi State, Bethune-Cookman
We’ve been high on Florida State all year at Baseball America—and for good reason. The Seminoles have been a fixture in our Eight for Omaha projections and boast a roster built for postseason success. Jamie Arnold headlines a deep, draft-eligible pitching staff, while Alex Lodise—a legitimate National Player of the Year candidate—and standout freshman Myles Bailey anchor a potent lineup.
But this regional demands serious attention, particularly because of Northeastern. The Huskies just wrapped up one of the best mid-major seasons in recent memory, winning both the CAA regular-season and tournament titles en route to a 48-9 record. They ride a 27-game winning streak into Tallahassee and enter as the national leader in ERA, giving them a real chance to cool off any offense they face.
Mississippi State also arrives with momentum. The Bulldogs parted ways with head coach Chris Lemonis in May, then rallied under interim Justin Parker to finish with 15 SEC wins and a spot in the NCAA field. They’re battle-tested and playing their best baseball when it matters most.
Florida State remains the favorite, and rightfully so. But getting grouped with a scorching mid-major and surging SEC squad make this one of the most intriguing regionals in the bracket. An upset wouldn’t be a total surprise here.
No. 13 Coastal Carolina
Regional opponents: Florida, East Carolina, Fairfield
Coastal Carolina enters the postseason with one of the deepest, most reliable rotations in the country and a legitimate shot to match its 2016 win total, when it shocked the sport by winning it all. Jacob Morrison (1.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP), Cam Flukey (3.16 ERA) and Riley Eikhoff (3.19 ERA) headline a staff that’s been the backbone of Coastal’s success, each logging over 70 innings with remarkable consistency.
The Chanticleers’ biggest concern is on the other side of the ball. Their .854 team OPS and .154 ISO both fall outside the 70th percentile nationally, and that lack of offensive thump could prove costly in a regional this unforgiving.
Florida, the nightmare two-seed nobody wanted to see, looms large in this group. The Gators have reached Omaha in back-to-back years—including last season as one of the final teams in—and have a roster built to flip the switch come tournament time. Add in East Carolina led by Cliff Godwin, who’s taken the Pirates to four super regionals, and the challenge becomes even clearer.
With Fairfield likely playing the role of four-seed formality, this regional will likely run through the arms of Coastal and the pedigree of its two dangerous challengers. Any host that drew Florida was bound to land on this list, and in Conway, the road out won’t be easy, especially considering Coastal went 3-4 against top 30 RPI teams this year.
No. 14 Tennessee
Regional opponents: Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Miami (OH)
This one doesn’t require a deep dive. Tennessee has the talent to reach Omaha again. The Volunteers boast one of the nation’s most electric rotations and a lineup capable of outslugging nearly anyone in the field.
But they’re cold, and that matters. Tennessee dropped six of its final seven series to close out the regular season, raising real questions about its momentum and readiness for postseason play. A 7-5 win over Texas in the SEC Tournament offered a glimmer of encouragement, but it was immediately followed by a 10-0 run-rule loss to No. 1 national seed Vanderbilt.
Wake Forest is the obvious threat here. The Demon Deacons haven’t been quite as dominant as they were a year ago, but they remain dangerous, particularly on the mound. Cincinnati and Miami (OH) round out the field as more traditional underdogs, but neither is a pushover, especially the Bearcats, who put together an impressive 11-5 run to lock in a postseason berth.
Tennessee still feels like a legitimate Omaha contender. But it will have to flip the switch fast. Right now, the trend line is hard to ignore.
No. 16 Southern Miss
Regional opponents: Alabama, Miami, Columbia
Of all the teams that landed on the host line, Southern Miss might be the most surprising. The Golden Eagles finished as runner-up in a two-bid Sun Belt and enter the tournament with the lowest RPI (19) and strength of schedule (67) of any host.
They also drew one of the most unforgiving regionals in the bracket. Alabama, the top RPI team (No. 13) to miss out on a host bid, brings 20 Quadrant 1 and 2 wins—compared to just 13 for Southern Miss—and comes out of the SEC with 41 total victories and a 16-win league slate. The Crimson Tide are more tested, deeper and built to do damage with high-octane pitching and bats like star shortstop Justin Lebron.
Miami is dangerous, too, especially after a strong second half pushed it into the field, but Alabama is the reason Southern Miss lands squarely on this upset watch list. This is a tough draw for a team that may already be playing slightly above its metrics.
