The Edmonton Oilers bounced back in a big way in Game 2 of the Western Conference Final, shutting out the Dallas Stars by a final score of 3-0. It was Stuart Skinner’s third shutout in his last four starts, a scary thought for the other remaining teams in the NHL Playoffs.
If the Oilers’ biggest weakness turns into a strength, we’re going to see Edmonton win it’s first Stanley Cup since 1990.
But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The series is tied 1-1 and heads back to Edmonton for a pivotal Game 3. Let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets for Sunday’s matinee matchup.
Puck Line
Moneyline
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One of the more surprising things about the Oilers this postseason is that Connor McDavid has scored just three goals despite the plethora of high-scoring games they’ve played. He has plenty of assists, but hasn’t been able to find the back of the net. I’m determined to believe that’s going to change sooner rather than later as he continues to create scoring opportunities, sporting an expected goals metric of 6.1, the most on the Oilers.
This didn’t hit for me in Game 2, but I’m going back to the well by betting on the best hockey player on the planet to find the back of the net in Game 3.
I wrote in today’s Top Shelf Picks about why I think the Oilers win this game by at least two goals:
Despite the series being tied at 1-1, it’s been clear to me the Oilers have been the better team. Goaltending variance swayed against them in Game 1 and then in their favor in Game 2, but the underlying metrics show the Oilers were the better team in both games in Dallas. Through the first two games, they have 5-on-5 expected goal differential of +0.55 and that balloons at +1.36 when you take special teams into consideration.
Stuart Skinner is the wild card of the series and he showed how things can sway either direction in the first two games, but with the series returning to Edmonton I have faith in him having a strong performance on his home ice. I think the Oilers not only win this game, but win it in impressive fashion by at least two goals.
Pick: Oilers -1.5 (+164)
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You can check out all of Iain’s bets here!
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