The Big Ten was oddly top-heavy in 2024-25. Only eight (of 18) Big Ten teams made the Big Dance, but all of them earned a No. 7 seed or better. It marked a wildly successful year of Big Ten basketball, even without a single team advancing to the Final Four and despite the debacles in Piscataway and Bloomington.
But both blessings and curses hit the league this spring. There’s a serious drain of high-level talent. The Big Ten could have up to eight first-round picks later this month in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Conversely, no league dominated the coaching carousel more than the Big Ten. Indiana hired West Virginia’s Darian DeVries, who was firmly in the mix for Big 12 Coach of the Year. Iowa nabbed Ben McCollum, who was one of the serious contenders for National Coach of the Year. Minnesota plucked Niko Medved, who is lauded as one of the elite coaches in the Mountain West year after year.
RELATED (VIP): Way-too-early SEC basketball tiers: Starting lineup projections, observations on each team
The 2025-26 season looks poised to have a mix of real National Championship contenders combined with much-improved depth in this league. On paper, the Big Ten likely has a dozen rosters with legitimate NCAA Tournament hopes. So, how do we parse the contenders from the pretenders in an ultra-deep league where the margins are oh, so slim? Things could change by November, depending on whether there’s a late flip in the portal, a splashy international addition or if summer film work/data dumpster-diving unearths new opinion-shifting revelations, but consider this a way-too-early snapshot with almost all of the Big Ten rosters close to set and newcomers sidling into campus this week for offseason workouts.
Tiers provide a preferable way of contextualizing the outlook.
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Tier 1 – Title contenders: Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have the upside to win the title. Not just make the second weekend. Not just win three in a row because of a nice draw. Six straight, do-or-die wins.
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Tier 2 – Top-25 caliber club: These teams have accrued plenty of talent and should be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few flaws that could keep them out of the top tier.
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Tier 3 – Tournament team: These teams have built good rosters and could flirt with top-25 status, but let’s be honest: they aren’t serious title threats.
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Tier 4 – Bubblicious: A Big Dance appearance is in the range of potential outcomes, but the NIT, the Crown (or worse) looms if things fizzle.
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Tier 5 – The basement: These teams have a slim chance of making the Big Dance unless something drastically clicks or they make a late splash in recruiting.
Let’s dive in.
