Georgia, ranked as a preseason top-five team according to most outlets, came in at No. 2 in the ESPN preseason FPI for the 2025 college football season. With the updated FPI comes a reset in the strength of schedule rankings. Georgia’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 8 in the country and in the SEC. Last year at this time, Georgia was given the No. 3 strength of schedule in this same release. Heading into Week 1 of the 2023 season, Georgia’s schedule was ranked No. 31 overall and last in the conference. In 2022, Georgia’s schedule was ranked No. 23 overall and 13th in the SEC, ahead of only Kentucky (29th) in the conference. Coming into 2021, Georgia’s schedule was ranked No. 10 in the country and sixth in the SEC.
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For the second year in a row, Florida is ranked No. 1 on the list, followed by Vanderbilt at No. 2. Also ranked ahead of the Dawgs are Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Kentucky. The SEC makes up the top 11 and 15 of the top 16, with Wisconsin breaking up the Southeastern Conference run at No. 12.
The release of ESPN’s strength of schedule rating is based on the preseason Football Power Index (FPI), where the Dawgs checked in at No. 2 on the list.
For the uninitiated, FPI is our predictive rating system for college football teams that we use to fuel our predictions and projections before and during the season. You can read about how FPI works here or watch a short video about it below. But the abridged version is that factors used in the preseason model include:
Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)
Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall and on defense
Whether a team has a returning head coach
Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons
The key thing to remember with FPI is that it is predicting team strength.
The FPI puts Georgia’s odds of winning six games at 99.4%. Georgia is given the fourth-best projected win total, and its 6.3 percent chance of winning all of its games is fifth, behind Texas (8.9%), Ohio State (8.6%), Notre Dame (7.0%), and Penn State (7.0%). Last year, Georgia was given a 10.8 percent chance of winning all of its games and proceeded to go 12-0 during the regular season for the third year in a row. In 2023, it was 22.4%, and in 2022, Georgia was given a 22.7% chance of winning all of its games in the regular season. As for winning its conference, Georgia has the fifth-highest odds among the Power 4 programs at 32.8 percent, behind Ohio State (40.3%) winning the Big Ten, Texas (34.1%) winning the SEC, and Clemson (34%) and Miami (30.5%) winning the ACC.
Georgia is given a 78.6 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, second-best in the country behind Texas (83.9%), down from 79.1% last year and up from 63.1% in 2023 and 73.5 percent in 2022. It is given a 30.0% chance of making the CFP National Championship, down from 31.6% last year, 35.9% in 2023, and 42.9% in 2022, but still good for second-best in the country. The Dawgs also come in second behind Texas (24.1%) with a 17.9% chance of winning it all, down from 21 percent last year, 19.1 percent from 2023, with the preseason FPI odds of a title in 2022 coming in at 22.7 percent.
