NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder usually look calm, cool and collected on their home floor at the Paycom Center. On Thursday night in the USA after losing Game 1 of the Finals to Tyrese Haliburton’s last-second shot — the only 0.3 seconds in which Oklahoma City trailed the Pacers the entire game — SGA and company looked furious.
OKC had blown a 15-point fourth-quarter lead to take just its second home loss of the playoffs. Its first postseason loss at Paycom this year came against Denver in the second round — ironically, in Game 1 of that series — during which the Thunder blew a 13-point fourth-quarter advantage.
Long story short, the best team in basketball has been here before. Now, we look to see how OKC responded to adversity that first time around, and we predict how Mark Daigneault’s squad will bounce back against Rick Carlisle’s feisty, run-and-gun Pacers on hoops’ biggest stage.
Let’s get to our betting preview for Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Thunder and Pacers, including the odds, our game pick and the top player props.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 2 betting tips, odds and predictions
All odds are courtesy of Dafabet and are correct at time of publish.
- Win Market: Thunder 1.16 | Pacers 5.10
- Over/Under: O 228.5 (1.87) | U 228.5 (1.94)
The bookies like the Thunder to rebound in a major way, while they are almost split down the middle on the over/under money.
Oklahoma City has been the most polished all-around team in the NBA this entire season, and it’s not in their DNA to let a stinging last-second loss define their championship fate. This team responds to adversity very well, as evidenced by their bounce-back win in Game 2 of the Western Conference semis vs. Denver.
After blowing that 13-point fourth-quarter lead and dropping Game 1 of that series, OKC put a 43-point pounding on Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in Game 2. The final score was 149-106, perhaps the worst loss of Joker’s career. The Thunder forced 20 Denver turnovers and drew 29 fouls. OKC’s shooting splits that night: 56.2/44.4/91.7.
That kind of bounce-back has been customary for Daigneault’s squad all season long. OKC has gone 17-2 after a loss since the start of the 2024-25 campaign. That’s an .895 winning percentage, for those without their Calculator apps handy.
Most people you know will bet on the miracle Pacers to mount another upset on Sunday night — or at least, to make it respectable and keep the game within single-digits for the cover. Don’t be like most people you know. Look at the bigger picture, and follow the trends from the 100 games OKC has played since the season started.
Daigneault won Coach of the Year last season for a reason. SGA won MVP this year for a reason. The Thunder have gone 80-20 this season — and 43-8 at home — for a reason. Don’t be over-reactionary after one game, a game in which Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso shot a combined 14-of-45, and OKC still almost won.
The Thunder got almost nothing from Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein defensively in Game 1, and OKC still forced 24 turnovers. If those bigs step up their low-post defense even a little, and SGA’s supporting cast shoots even 5-10 percent better, the home favorites should be able to get out to another big lead — and this time, preserve it.
Game 1 of the semis vs. the Nuggets was a wakeup call for the Thunder. Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals vs. the Timberwolves was a similar wakeup call. OKC’s next home games after those defeats were wins by 43 and 30, respectively. You’re going to want to have your money on the No. 1 seed come Sunday evening.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 121, Pacers 107 — OKC wins easily, while the score finishes just UNDER the projected total of 228.5.
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Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 2 top player props, bet builder
— Jalen Williams 20+ points
— Chet Holmgren 10+ points
There’s never much question about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring ability. That’s why, when JDub and Chet stunk up the joint in Game 1, SGA put up 38 points. It’s also why SGA’s over/under for Game 2 has been set at a whopping 34.5. We’re fading that, as we expect him to get a lot more help from his friends this time around.
Holmgren scored just six points on 2-of-9 shooting in Game 1. Prior to that dud, he had scored 21-plus in three of his past four games. He’s scored in double-figures in 15 of 17 games this postseason, and he should get back to 10-plus again on Sunday.
JDub wasn’t nearly as bad as Chet in Game 1, but he was certainly bad by his standards. The All-Star shot just 6-of-19 from the field and 1-of-4 from the line. And yet, he still scored 17 points! A 20-point target is a very winnable one if he continues to see this much usage. He’s not going to shoot 5-of-15 on two-point field goals again.
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