The 2025 MLB Draft is exactly a month away. Four years ago, MLB pushed the draft back from the first week of June to the All-Star break in an effort to better market the event, and it will remain there moving forward even though many executives don’t like it. The two-day draft begins Sunday, July 13, this year.
This is the third year of MLB’s draft lottery system. In the past, the draft order was the reverse order of the previous year’s standings, which was nice and simple. Now picks 1-6 are assigned via lottery, picks 7-18 are the remaining non-postseason teams in the reverse order of the previous year’s standings, and picks 19-30 are postseason teams in order of their playoff finish.
At 71-91, the Nationals had baseball’s sixth-worst record last season, yet Washington won the lottery and moved up to the No. 1 pick. It is the third time in franchise history the Expos/Nationals have held the No. 1 selection. The first two times worked out about as well as any team could hope: Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2010.
2025 MLB Draft rankings: Top 30 players in class, including Eli Willits, Jamie Arnold, Ethan Holliday and more
R.J. Anderson
“It’s something that’s a good lucky bounce for us,” Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said after the draft lottery in December. “There’s nobody you can’t have in the draft, which is important. We’ll pick the player that fits our organization the best and gives the most possibility for an impact.”
The Mariners also won big on lottery day. They moved up from the No. 17 pick to No. 3. This will be Seattle’s highest selection since taking Mike Zunino with the No. 3 pick in 2012. The 121-loss White Sox moved back to the No. 10 pick. They had the No. 5 pick in last year’s draft and teams that pay into the revenue sharing system cannot have lottery picks in back-to-back years.
All first-round picks are protected from free-agent compensation. Teams instead forfeit later draft picks (and international bonus money) to sign qualified free agents. The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees all exceeded the $277 million third competitive balance tax threshold last season and the penalty moves their first pick back 10 spots. That pushes all three out of the first round.
Each team is given a set bonus pool for draft spending each summer. The penalties for excessive spending are harsh enough (tax on overage, forfeit a future first rounder, etc.) that the bonus pool effectively acts as a hard cap. The bonus pools are tied to picks in the top 10 rounds, and if you sign one player to a below slot bonus, you can give the savings to another player(s).
Here are the five largest bonus pools for the 2025 MLB draft (per MLB.com):
- Mariners: $17,074,400
- Rays: $16,699,400
- Angels: $16,656,400
- Nationals: $16,597,800
- Orioles: $16,513,100
The Yankees have the smallest bonus pool at $5,383,600. Their first-round pick was moved back 10 spots through CBT penalties, plus their qualified free-agent activity (gain a compensation pick for losing Juan Soto, forfeit two picks to sign Max Fried) works out to one pick lost. Picking late and forfeiting a high pick equals a small bonus pool.
Generally speaking, teams do not draft for need in the early rounds of the draft. It’s difficult to predict this sport a month or two into the future. It’s impossible to know what your roster needs will be two or three (or more) years down the line, when most of these players will be ready for the big leagues. Take the best, most talented player, and sort out the roster later.
R.J. Anderson has already published his 2025 draft prospect rankings. Below is our first 2025 first-round mock draft. We’ll have two mock draft updates between now and draft day with the latest chatter, speculation, and rumors.
1. Nationals: IF Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS (OK)
Slot value: $11,075,900
There is no Bryce Harper or Adley Rutschman in this draft. No clear-cut top prospect who obviously will go No. 1 overall. Given the state of their big-league roster, it would make sense for the Nationals to select a quick-moving college player, someone who could join MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, et al in Washington in short order. This is the No. 1 pick though. You have to take you who think will be the best player and not futz around with who might get to the majors the quickest.
Holliday is the most famous prospect in the draft class. He is the son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday and the younger brother of Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday. There are some who think Ethan now is a better player than Jackson was at the time he was made the No. 1 pick, and there are others who think Holliday is getting a bit overhyped because of his name. With the draft still a month away, the No. 1 pick is very wide open. Holliday is hardly a lock here and I would even bet the field over Holliday right now. This situation is subject to change.
2. Angels: LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
Slot value: $10,252,700
The smart money is on the Angels taking a college player they can push through the system quickly. They had the first player from the 2021 (Chase Silseth), 2022 (Zach Neto), and 2023 (Nolan Schanuel) drafts to reach MLB, and 2024 pick Ryan Johnson skipped the minors entirely and made the 2025 Opening Day roster this year. Doyle had an incredible season for the Volunteers, striking out 164 batters in 95 ⅔ innings. There is some thought the Angels may take the portfolio approach and cut a below-slot deal here so they can spend the money on higher-upside prospects with later picks. Doyle would fit that strategy better than LSU’s Kade Anderson, who has added leverage as a draft-eligible sophomore.
3. Mariners: LHP Kade Anderson, LSU
Slot value: $9,504,400
The Mariners have done well taking high school players in the first round in recent years (Harry Ford in 2021, Cole Young in 2022, Colt Emerson in 2023), though their wheelhouse is college pitching. Anderson is the draft’s best blend of probability and upside, and he checks old-school scouting and new-school analytical boxes alike. Seattle moved up from the No. 17 pick to the No. 3 pick in the lottery, plus they have the largest bonus pool in the draft class. Anderson is a draft-eligible sophomore who can return to school and re-enter the draft next spring, though it is hard to see how he could improve his draft stock given where he is now. Regardless, the Mariners are positioned better than any team to meet what could be an elevated asking price.
4. Rockies: LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
Slot value: $8,770,900
It’s unlikely Holliday, whose father Matt starred in Colorado from 2004-08, will slide beyond this pick. Holliday is not on the board in our mock draft though, so we’ll instead put Arnold to the Rockies. The Rockies used several high draft picks on college pitchers with big fastballs in recent years (Gabriel Hughes in 2022, Chase Dollander in 2023, Brody Brecht in 2024) and Arnold has the best fastball in the country. It’s an elite bat-misser and his funky arm angle has made comparisons to Chris Sale inevitable. The Rockies will never lure top free-agent pitchers to Colorado. They have to grow their own starters and Arnold has arguably the highest upside among college pitchers in the draft class.
5. Cardinals: SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Slot value: $8,134,800
St. Louis was a winner on draft lottery day. The team moved up from the No. 13 pick to No. 5, which will be their highest selection since taking J.D. Drew with the No. 5 pick in 1998. My guess — I emphasize this is just a guess — is the Cardinals hope one of Anderson or Arnold gets here, which is not the case in our mock draft. With the top college arms off the board, Willits is our mock pick. His father, Reggie, played six big-league seasons from 2006-11 and has spent the last several years as a coach in both the majors and at the college level. Eli will not turn 18 until December, making him one of the youngest players in the draft class, and he’s a switch-hitting do-it-all player with great baseball smarts. Willits has many, many fans in the game. Evaluators love him.
6. Pirates: SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Slot value: $7,558,600
Arguably the top college hitter in the country, Arquette could go earlier than this, and has an outside chance to be the No. 1 pick with the draft still a month away. Top college performers who play a premium position are always in demand on draft day. Arquette has smoothed concerns about his ability to stay at short over the last 12 months and it’s easy power. I’m only half-joking when I say he would be one of the 5-6 best hitters in Pittsburgh’s lineup right now.
7. Marlins: SS Billy Carlson, Corona HS (CA)
Slot value: $7,149,900
One of the worst kept secrets this draft season is the Marlins are in heavy on the top high school shortstops. That includes Kayson Cunningham and JoJo Parker, who could be the pick here should Miami take the portfolio approach and look to save a little money for their extra pick (No. 43, a competitive balance pick). Carlson and Willits are the consensus top two high school position players in the draft, and with Willits already off the board in our mock, we’ll go with Carlson here. Corona HS could have three first rounders this spring with Carlson, righty Seth Hernandez, and infielder Brady Ebel.
8. Blue Jays: RHP Kyson Witherspoon, Oklahoma
Slot value: $6,813,600
The Blue Jays moved back from No. 5 to No. 8 in the draft lottery and that’s a tough break for them, because this is where the draft board begins to open up. I suspect that if any of the players taken with the first seven picks in our mock draft are still on the board for No. 8 on draft day, the Blue Jays would pounce. Witherspoon has the goods and frontline stuff, but a shaky outing in the Regionals two weeks ago didn’t help draft stock.
9. Reds: RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS (CA)
Slot value: $6,513,800
The case can be made that Hernandez is the most talented player in this year’s draft class. It’s upper-90s gas, a knockout curveball, good strike-throwing ability, and plus makeup. High school pitchers are the riskiest draft demographic, however, plus Hernandez will be 19 on draft day. The track record of older high school prospects in pro ball is not great. Still, the arm talent is undeniable. Getting Hernandez with the No. 9 pick would be a terrific outcome for the Reds and a not great one for Hernandez, who belongs in the top five picks somewhere and would lose some bonus money by sliding this far.
10: White Sox: SS JoJo Parker, Purvis HS (MS)
Slot value: $6,238,400
Despite losing a modern-record 121 games a year ago, the White Sox do not pick until No. 10 this year because they had the No. 5 pick last summer, and teams that pay into revenue sharing cannot have lottery picks in back-to-back years. They automatically get bumped back to No. 10 (at the earliest). At this point in our mock draft, hitters are the best available players, and Parker has one of the best pure bats in the draft class. A team that is sold on his defense and ability to stick at short long-term could take him earlier than this.
11. Athletics: OF Brendan Summerhill, Arizona
Slot value: $5,985,100
Summerhill is one of the draft’s biggest risers this spring. He’s a well-rounded player who is higher on draft boards around the league than some public prospect rankings might lead you to believe. The Athletics badly need pitching, so a quick-moving college starter would make sense with this pick, but all the top arms are already off the board in our mock draft. The A’s turned their 2023 (Jacob Wilson) and 2024 (Nick Kurtz) first-round picks into big leaguers in very short order. Summerhill could follow a similar path.
12. Rangers: SS Steele Hall, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Slot value: $5,746,800
Under GM Chris Young, the Rangers have targeted upside and loud tools with their high draft picks. Hall might be the fastest player in the draft class, and he’s a defensive wiz with a knack for highlight reel plays at short. There’s also pop in his bat. If Texas again looks for pure upside in the first round, that is likely to lead them to one of the high school shortstops, be it Hall or Parker or Cunningham (or Carlson, in the unlikely event he falls to this pick).
13. Giants: SS Kayson Cunningham, Johnson HS (TX)
Slot value: $5,524,300
The Giants have a brand new front office and how Buster Posey & Co. will approach the draft is a mystery. So, we’ll take the easy way out and give them Cunningham, the consensus best player still on the board in our mock draft. He’s a terrific pure hitter with some of the best contact skills in the draft class. Don’t get caught thinking Willy Adames‘ long-term contract will steer the Giants clear of a shortstop. Shortstops tend to be the best athletes on the field and thus best able to change positions.
14. Rays: OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M
Slot value: $5,313,100
A candidate to go No. 1 overall entering the spring, LaViolette had a disappointing draft season, one in which he hit .258 while striking out in a quarter of his plate appearances. For a potential first rounder, those flat out aren’t good numbers. Still, LaViolette has enormous power, and the Rays have used several recent first-round picks on high-end offensive tools. Getting LaViolette with this pick would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. Tampa has extra picks at No. 37 (competitive balance pick) and No. 42 (acquired from the A’s in the Jeffrey Springs trade). They can swing for the fences here and balance the risk later.
15. Red Sox: SS Daniel Pierce, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Slot value: $5,114,200
Pierce fits the mold of recent Red Sox picks (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer, etc.) as a player with a mature approach, burgeoning pop, and a history of performing well against elite competition in showcase events. Boston has not used a first-round pick on a pitcher since Tanner Houck in 2017, and that was three front office regimes ago. No reason to think that will change this year. Pierce is a possibility for every team from pick No. 10 onward.
16. Twins: SS Marek Houston, Wake Forest
Slot value: $4,929,600
Houston checks a lot of boxes and has the kind of skill set that says he should come off the board earlier than this, but he remains available for the Twins at No. 16 in our mock draft. He’s hit everywhere he’s played, including with wood bats against premium competition in the Cape Cod League last summer, and he unlocked a new level of power without sacrificing contact this spring. Houston has been connected to several teams with extra picks as a potential bonus pool saver, and Minnesota has a competitive balance selection at No. 36.
17. Cubs: 2B Gavin Kilen, Tennessee
Slot value: $4,750,800
One of the top performers in the country, Kilen has premium bat-to-ball ability, so much so that he gets himself into trouble by swinging at pitches he shouldn’t simply because he knows he can put the ball in play. College middle infielders who perform as well as Kilen typically do not last long on draft day. He could hear his name called much earlier than No. 17 when the time comes.
18. Diamondbacks: OF Slater de Brun, Summit HS (OR)
Slot value: $4,581,900
The D-backs absolutely have a type and it is the undersized hitter with short levers and premium athleticism. That describes Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Gabriel Moreno, former D-back Daulton Varsho, and last year’s first-rounder Slade Caldwell. de Brun is cut from the same cloth. Great athlete, short to the ball, plays like his hair is on fire. The player’s profile and the team’s preferences are a match made in mock draft heaven.
19. Orioles: 3B Xavier Neyens, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
Slot value: $4,420,900
Do not expect Baltimore’s pitching issues this season to lead them to a pitcher on draft day. The O’s have selected only five pitchers in the first five rounds under GM Mike Elias, and never a first-rounder. Neyens is similar to current Orioles players/prospects Dylan Beavers, Vance Honeycutt, Heston Kjerstad, and Coby Mayo as someone with easy power, good athleticism, and a few things in his swing that need to be cleaned. Neyens is right in Baltimore’s wheelhouse. The O’s have extra picks at No. 30 and 31 as compensation for losing qualified free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. They have a big bonus pool and the money to do whatever they want with this pick.
20. Brewers: IF/OF Sean Gamble, IMG Academy (FL)
Slot value: $4,268,100
The Brewers are another team with a clear type. They love their speedy, athletic, play-like-it’s-your-last-game type. Think Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Caleb Durbin, etc. Gamble does all that stuff and he’s been really impressive in showcase events against other top draft prospects. It’s unclear if he’ll play on the dirt or in the outfield in the future. The Brewers are one of the teams that just might use him at both.
21. Astros: SS Wehiwa Aloy, Arkansas
Slot value: $4,122,500
Aloy is a bat-first player with good right-handed pull power, the kind that will play well in Daikin Park with the Crawford Boxes, and he’s likely to stay on the middle infield another few years. He fits what the Astros have taken in the first round the last few years (Drew Gilbert in 2022, Brice Matthews in 2023, Walker Janek in 2024) and that’s a college performer who can really hit and has a chance to stick at an up-the-middle position.
22. Braves: RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara
Slot value: $3,983,900
Coaching up power arms has become a strength of the Braves in recent years and, given who’s still on the board in this mock draft, it makes sense to give them a similar player here. Bremner was considered a candidate for the No. 1 pick entering 2025, but he did not have a great draft year, including losing the feel for his slider. When you pick this late in the first round like the Braves do every year, you basically never get a shot to select a player with his much ability. My hunch is Atlanta wouldn’t pass Bremner up.
23. Royals: C/OF Ike Irish, Auburn
Slot value: $3,852,100
The bet here is Irish will not be available when the No. 23 pick comes up on draft day. He tore the cover off the ball the last few weeks and made a great final impression, plus position scarcity means catchers are always selected earlier than the public draft prospect rankings would lead you to believe. There is some thought Irish will move to the outfield full-time at the next level. If his does, his bat should play fine in a corner. Getting Irish here would be a coup for Kansas City.
24. Tigers: SS/OF Tate Southisene, Basic HS (NV)
Slot value: $3,726,300
The Tigers have had tremendous success using early picks on high school hitters the last two years. Max Clark (2023 first round), Kevin McGonigle (2023 compensation round), and Bryce Rainer (2024 first round) are all consensus top-50ish prospects in the game. So, why not go back to that well? That’s what we have the Tigers doing in our mock draft with Southisene, who has a brother in the Cubs’ system (Ty) and another who plays at USC (Tee). For what it’s worth, Southisene has been mentioned as a candidate for a below-slot deal with a team with an extra pick(s), which Detroit has at No. 34 (competitive balance pick).
25. Padres: LHP Kruz Schoolcraft, Sunset HS (OR)
Slot value: $3,606,600
It’s almost cliché to mock a high school lefty to the Padres. They used their first-rounder on a prep southpaw in 2017 (MacKenzie Gore), 2018 (Ryan Weathers), and again in 2024 (Kash Mayfield). Also, San Diego has tended to take the highest upside player under GM A.J. Preller, and that’s Schoolcraft at this point in our mock draft. If not for an uneven spring in which he looked fatigued, Schoolcraft likely would have viewed as a top 10-15 pick this summer.
26. Phillies: IF Gavin Fien, Great Oak HS (CA)
Slot value: $3,492,200
You have to go back to Bryson Stott in 2019 for the last time the Phillies used their top pick on a college player. Fien could hear his name called as early as the 10-15 range somewhere. Getting all the way to Philadelphia at No. 26 would be a great outcome for the team. Fien sets his hands up high at the plate and has an unusual setup, but it works for him, and he’s shown the ability to barrel up top competition in showcases.
27. Guardians: OF Cam Cannarella, Clemson
Slot value: $3,382,600
A brilliant center fielder, Cannarella is arguably the best defensive player in the draft class, regardless of position. Last summer’s shoulder surgery muted his production a bit this year, but Cannarella gets the bat on the ball, he runs extremely well, and he’s a superlative defender. Cleveland has used the last few first-round picks on guys with power (Chase DeLauter in 2022, Ralphy Velazquez in 2023, Travis Bazzana in 2024) and that’s not Cannarella, but there’s no harm in zigging after you’ve zagged for so long.
The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees all had their first-round pick moved back 10 spots through CBT penalties. The Mets hold the No. 38 pick, the Yankees the No. 39 pick, and the Dodgers the No. 40 pick.
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