The Florida Gators are staring down a .500 season in 2025, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Florida football is projected to go 6.4-5.6, effectively a 6-6 regular season–ranking 12th in the SEC. It’s a tough outlook for head coach Billy Napier, who enters a pivotal fourth season under pressure to show progress.
Despite the buzz surrounding quarterback DJ Lagway, one of college football’s young stars, the Gators face the No. 1 toughest remaining schedule (REM SOS) in college football. That makes any turnaround effort even more difficult.
The Gators sit well behind SEC contenders like the Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide, each projected to win nine or more games and contend for playoff spots.
Even middle-tier programs like the Oklahoma Sooners and Auburn Tigers are ranked above Florida in ESPN’s advanced model.
Key FPI Metrics
- SEC FPI Rank: 12th
- Projected Record: 6.4-5.6 (6-6)
- Chance to win SEC: 1.0%
- Playoff Chance: 14.5%
- Bowl Eligibility Odds: 68.2%
Bottom Line
ESPN’s FPI doesn’t see Florida breaking through in 2025. For Napier and Lagway, a 6-6 season may be the floor–but also the line they have to rise above.
With pressure mounting in Gainesville, exceeding expectations won’t just quiet critics–it may be necessary to secure the future of the program’s leadership.
Every game will be a test–not just of talent, but of whether this rebuild is actually turning the corner.
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