What’s going on in the Big 12 and beyond? I expand and explain every Sunday in Postscripts at Heartland College Sports, your home for independent Big 12 coverage.
This week, the College Football Playoff negotiations were rolling right along and then … ugh.
START FROM SCRATCH? REALLY?
For the past few months, those that lead the College Football Playoff have been haggling over the format for an expanded playoff in 2026. We’re talking about 14 or 16 teams. We’re talking about 4+4+2+2+1+3 or 5+11. I’m assuming we can all do math?
Haggling usually leads to a deal. Until it doesn’t. And then, apparently, you start over?
That’s what we’re doing with the College Football Playoff expansion discussion.
Yes, we are starting over. Why? Math, apparently.
The conversation about the expanded playoff in 2026 has always been about access. The SEC and the Big Ten — who effectively have enough power to do whatever they want with the expansion — want as many of their teams as possible in the playoffs. The ACC and the Big 12 want it to be fair (or at least fairer).
For months, it seems inevitable the SEC and the Big Ten would get their way and get four automatic bids. But, in May, the 5+11 favored by the ACC and the Big 12 gained traction. It actually looked, for a minute, like the 5+11 would win.
But in Asheville this week, as the CFP leadership met, math got in the way.
The CFP’s ranking process has always seemed a bit mushy to me. But the CFP, led by new director Rich Clark, are trying to tweak the formula. CBS Sports’ Brandon Marcello, among others, reported on what the CFP is doing:
“The new metrics would place more emphasis on nonconference scheduling, effectively making the difference between eight and nine conference games negligible.”
This is interesting. The emphasis in current ratings, more or less, has been on strength of schedule for the entire season. I think the committee leans into conference play, though. How you finish in conference tells the committee a lot about the team. But if the committee will put more emphasis on non-conference games — which on its face sounds ridiculous — then programs now must put in the work to get a tough non-conference schedule every year.
Which means the most non-conference games a team has, the more it enhances their playoff odds.
Guess which of the SEC and the Big Ten play eight conference games? Yep, the SEC. Per Marcello, the league heard that and basically said, “Hey, let’s chill for a bit.”
Just about everyone I know in the game wants the power leagues to play the same amount of conference games. The Big Ten and Big 12 play nine. The ACC and the SEC play eight. The SEC has dragged its feet for years. Using a formula that puts more emphasis on non-conference play and, perhaps, gives them some wiggle room in conference, likely has some appeal.
Changing the Game
But this new SOS formula has the potential to adjust the entire landscape. If the SOS is going to lean into non-conference games, then a scheduling alliance with the Big Ten makes a lot of sense. So might some kind of alliance with the ACC or Big 12. Lock up two power conference games, land a Group of 5 game and an FCS happy meal at home with an eight-game SEC schedule and that could boost the SOS numbers a bit.
It might also force the other leagues to adjust. Some coaches in the Big 12 have expressed their misgivings with the nine-game league schedule. The league has played one since it went to 10 teams in 2011. The league simply kept it there after expansion.
If the Big 12 drops to eight teams, will that help them? Are there enough power conference games to go around to satisfy everyone? Remember that Big 12 teams are playing 10 power conference opponents each year. But that’s much easier to do when you must only find one out-of-conference game. It gets harder to find two if the league drops to eight games.
The idea of tweaking the formula to put more emphasis on non-conference games seems rather ridiculous. The fight for months has been to respect conference champions, the rigorous schedule they must play and the champions that rise from that competition getting a level of preferential treatment in the bracket (which is now dead thanks to straight seeding). It feels like a tweak that plays right into the SEC’s hands — which is probably why the process is now on pause.
Clark told CBS that Dec. 1 is the deadline for determining the playoff format for 2026. He said everything is on the table, including sticking with the 12-team format for the foreseeable future.
Geez, thanks math.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
