As is tradition, college football programs across the country are reloading and restocking their rosters with the top high school talent available, all in the hopes of becoming legitimate contenders by the time kickoff arrives.
A total of 136 teams will be battling for the trophy that crowns the NCAA’s next national champion. The road is long, brutal, unpredictable, and full of highs and lows that define every college football season.
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We already know the perennial favorites-the traditional powerhouses that are always in the title conversation-but there’s always room for a dark horse to emerge. In the meantime, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has run the numbers and projected which teams have the best shot at reaching the national championship game.
It comes as no surprise that the SEC and Big Ten dominate the top tier of the rankings. Eight of the top 10 teams come from those two conferences, and the SEC alone places 10 teams in the top 16.
Using advanced analytics, the FPI simulated the season 20,000 times, taking into account current roster strength, recruiting classes, strength of schedule, and historical performance to forecast the most likely championship contenders.
Here’s what the FPI projections revealed:
- Texas – 83.9%
- Georgia – 78.6%
- Ohio State – 70.6%
- Alabama – 66.2%
- Penn State – 63.8%
- Oregon – 57.5%
- Clemson – 47.3%
- Miami – 46.3%
- Notre Dame – 45.6%
- Tennessee – 38.5%
- Texas A&M – 34.3%
- Ole Miss – 30.7%
These projections, however, come with a caveat: they don’t account for the chaos that defines college football. Injuries, suspensions, off-the-field issues, or just a bad bounce can derail even the most promising season.
Notably absent: Big 12 and Group of Five teams
One of the most surprising takeaways from the model is the lack of representation from the Big 12 and the Group of Five-a potentially controversial omission, considering that under the College Football Playoff system, one team from these groups is essentially guaranteed a spot in the 12-team playoff format.
Still, if we narrow it down, the FPI sees Kansas State as the Big 12’s best hope, with a 22.2% chance of reaching the playoffs. Following them are Arizona State at 16.1%, and Kansas at 13.4%.
From the Group of Five, Boise State stands tall as the top program, ranking 40th overall and holding a 25.2% chance of making the postseason.
Other realistic possibilities worth watching:
- Tulane (AAC) – 24.3% chance
- UNLV (Mountain West) – 21.3% chance
- Notre Dame remains a viable threat, with a punishing offensive line and a defense that rotates well. The biggest question mark? Their quarterback situation.
These projections are based on 20,000 simulated seasons that weigh key factors such as current results, roster strength, opponent quality, and incoming recruiting classes. The numbers offer clarity, but as always in college football, the game is played on the field-not in the spreadsheet.
Let the chaos begin.
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