Tennessee traveled south to Athens on Saturday night and found a similar result. Just as they have in every season since 2017, the Georgia Bulldogs came away with the win over the Volunteers.
It was a must-win spot for Georgia, which had lost to Ole Miss in the week before. That result launched the Rebels up the College Football rankings, throwing a curveball towards Tennessee’s playoff chances. Now with Tennessee’s loss to Georgia, the Vols are in the two-loss SEC mess just outside of the top five.
Tennessee’s College Football Playoff chances
According to ESPN’s FPI, Tennessee has a 65.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. They hold a 76.6 percent chance of winning out. Using ESPN’s playoff predictor, wins over UTEP and Vanderbilt increase Tennessee’s chance to make the field to 83 percent.
Looking at the gambling markets, Tennessee is now -115 to make the playoff — odds that are just a tick better than a 50-50 bet.
Let’s break things down as it currently stands, using the highest ranked team from each conference as the auto bids.
Big Ten: 4 bids — auto (Oregon). At-large (Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana)
Big 12: 1 bid — auto (BYU)
ACC: 1 bid — auto (Miami)
SEC: 4 bids — auto (Texas). At-large (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss)
Group of five: 1 bid — auto (Boise State)
Other at-large bid: Notre Dame
- The ACC and Big 12 seem like locks for one bid each, which will be their auto-bid conference title winners.
- Based on where the Big Ten schools sit, it’s difficult to see any of the four falling out of the top ten. This leaves a battle between Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Tennessee for the final spot, assuming we don’t get total chaos (always possible).
- A Texas A&M win over Texas in the final weekend could be the ultimate curveball for the committee, considering the weak resume of Texas. The Longhorns’ best win right now appears to be Vanderbilt. Would the committee kick them out with a loss?
What will the committee do with Tennessee after the loss to Georgia?
Tennessee slipped four spots to No. 10 in Sunday’s AP top 25 poll. The Volunteers landed at No. 7 in last week’s College Football Playoff top 25 after being jumped by both BYU and Indiana.
“Tennessee, the offense has struggled some the second half of the season, not being consistent early in the year, and we just felt as a committee that at this time Indiana has been playing very well, a close win against Michigan, but other than that, they’ve dominated everyone they’ve played,” CFP chair Warde Manuel said last week of Tennessee’s ranking. “We just felt that Indiana and BYU earned the 5 and the 6 slot, and Tennessee stayed where they are.”
You can likely assume Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Alabama and Georgia will all move past Tennessee. Miami and even Boise State could as well, and it remains to be seen where BYU will land. Tennessee should land in the 11-13 range, if I had to guess.
What Tennessee needs to happen over the final two weeks
First things first, Tennessee is going to have to take care of Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Commodores, as you know by now, are certainly no joke this year and will play Tennessee tough in an attempt to ruin a rival’s season.
Here are the other games that will shape the bracket.
- Indiana at Ohio State — Indiana is undefeated, but they have one of the weakest schedules in all of the power four. What happens if the Buckeyes win big here? Indiana would at least go directly to the bubble.
- Ole Miss at Florida — the Gators just knocked off LSU. Could they do the same to the Rebels? This one would obviously help Tennessee in a large way.
- Notre Dame vs. Army — this is Army’s shot, and a win for them would likely kill Notre Dame’s playoff chances after that bad loss to Northern Illinois.
- Notre Dame at USC — the Trojans aren’t very good this season, but the talent is still there. A cross-country trip and a rivalry game with everything on the line always has upset potential.
- Georgia vs. Georgia Tech — this one is unlikely, but we’ve seen Georgia Tech take down (then) top ten teams Florida State and Miami. The Yellow Jackets played the Bulldogs tough last season too. A win by Tech would obviously doom the ‘Dawgs.
- Alabama at Oklahoma/Alabama vs. Auburn — neither upset is likely, but never say never in the Iron Bowl. Alabama does get the game in Tuscaloosa, however.
The College Football Playoff bracket will be announced on Sunday, December 8th. The latest batch of rankings and projected bracket will be revealed on Tuesday night.
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