FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — North Dakota State coach Tyler Oakes knows just how big of an underdog his team is against No. 3 Arkansas.
“We know the challenge ahead of us,” Oakes said. “I’m sure some people in this room don’t even know where Fargo, North Dakota is.”
The numbers are what they are. Of the 64 teams in the NCAA Tournament, the Bison have the fewest number of wins at 20. Arkansas-Little Rock is next in the field with 24.
The algorithm at College Baseball Insiders gives the Bison a 2.86% chance of winning the game with the starting matchup of Aiden Jimenez and Nolan Johnson. The expected run score is 11.49-0.87.
By all accounts the first game should be a blowout, but North Dakota State did beat Oral Roberts in the final of the Summit League Championship to punch their ticket to the Tournament.
“You’re going to a group of tough guys that love to compete,” coach Tyler Oakes said. “It’s not going to be the sexiest baseball all the time. We’re not going to hit balls over the fence all the time and bash it all over the yard.”
North Dakota State as a team has just 30 homers on the season. The Aloy brothers for Arkansas, Kuhio and Wehiwa, combined for 31 by themselves.
The Bison’s game one starter could bring a unique challenge to the Razorbacks on the mound. Johnson, a lefty and the Summit League Pitcher of the Year, will get the ball for the Bison against Arkansas in the first game.
His 4.14 ERA is slightly deceptive. At one point in the season his ERA was as high as 8.42. In his last 57 innings, he’s allowed just 14 earned runs for an ERA of 2.21 over that stretch.
In the opening game of the Summit League tournament, Johnson threw 119 pitches in seven shutout innings against Omaha for a 1-0 win in 10 innings. Three days later, he threw 57 pitches in four innings of one-run ball in the final against Oral Roberts.
Johnson’s arsenal includes a fastball, slider and a changeup. Van Horn described the prototypical lefty “Bugs Bunny” changeup as something that Arkansas could have to contend with Friday.
“It’s hard to hit,” Van Horn said. “It just dances around. Those of you that are our age have seen the cartoon and the ball just kind of stops and then it moves. I’m not saying you’ve got that one but he’s got good stuff and he competes.”
Johnson said he just tries to throw the changeup with the same intent as his fastball and let the two pitches play off of each other.
To make up for the lack of power on the offensive side, North Dakota State is hoping to play a little small ball to catch the Razorbacks off guard.
“It’s a brand where we can execute at a high level [and] handle the bat,” Oakes said. “Move the baseball around a little bit, steal some bases. Play more of that old school type baseball. We have a bunch of guys with a chip on thieir shoulder.”
First pitch for North Dakota State and Arkansas is scheduled for 2 p.m. Friday and will be streamed on ESPN+.
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