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The American League East could be a dogfight this year, and I think the winner might surprise some people. Plus: Alex Verdugo finds a home, Cam Smith is turning a lot of heads in Astros camp and Ken interprets some front-office speak in Toronto.
I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
Division Previews: Can anyone get separation in the AL East?
This one could get very interesting. I think there’s also a chance it could be a blowout.
Let’s start with the Yankees (94-68 in 2024), the defending AL champs. They lost Juan Soto to the Mets in free agency and then tried — relatively successfully, I might add — to replace him in the aggregate. And then the injuries descended from a dark cloud. No Gerrit Cole, a delayed Luis Gil, a who-even-knows-at-age-35 Giancarlo Stanton and a big ol’ Riddler costume slotted in for third base on Opening Day.
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But with the Yankees down a Gerrit, the Red Sox (81-81) are up one Garrett — as in, Crochet. They also brought in the defending AL third-base Gold Glove winner (Alex Bregman), and Trevor Story is (fingers crossed) healthy again. Oh, and don’t forget the guy who threw the last pitch of the 2024 World Series (Walker Buehler). The Red Sox finally did make good on that promise to go “full throttle,” it just came a year later than we expected — even with as many as seven Opening Day roster spots still undecided.
Remember the Orioles (91-71)? Two years ago, their farm system seemed to be pointing toward 2025-ish for them to be a powerhouse. Instead, they lost Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander to free agency, and Grayson Rodriguez’s health is in question. The young core — Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and others — is still an impressive crew. The pitching is a big question, though.
The Blue Jays (74-88) — more on them below — don’t seem poised to threaten for the division, though the additions of Santander and Max Scherzer are something. I kinda like their rotation (which includes Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are in contract years. I’m not sure Toronto is going to score enough to be a playoff team, though.
And then there are the Rays (80-82), who — perhaps for understandable reasons, given all the stadium chaos — didn’t really do much at all this offseason, and free agent Ha-Seong Kim is expected to miss most of the first half. The biggest additions are injury returns, with starters Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen set to reclaim the mound.
Here’s our team of experts with a more in-depth AL East preview.
Ken’s Notebook: Jays, Vlad Jr. reaching an inflection point
Words. Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro spoke a lot of them to the team’s beat reporters yesterday about the Jays’ negotiations with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Some of Shapiro’s words — “I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to extend him.” — surely encouraged Jays fans who want the club to keep Guerrero long-term. But what’s that old saying? Oh, yeah: Actions speak louder than words.
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This isn’t that difficult. A $50 million gap in present-day value exists between the Jays’ last offer of $450 million and Guerrero’s desire for $500 million. Over 14 years, the term Guerrero said he was “looking for,” the difference is $3.57 million per year.
People inside and outside the industry might argue Guerrero is not worth $500 million, but the Jays essentially ended that discussion by offering him $450 million at a time when they were the only team permitted to bid. Shapiro, naturally, holds a different view. His comment, “We have gone well past what our rational point of objectively framing what the contract value is,” came off almost as premature buyer’s remorse.
Do the Jays want the player or not? They have yet to indicate, through their actions over the years, that the answer is yes. As I wrote last month, the Jays had one opportunity after another to extend Guerrero, for a heck of a lot less money than they offered in their most recent proposal. And Shapiro seems ready to kick the can down the road again, saying, “Sometimes free agency provides the clearest access” to defining a player’s value.
Free agency? Hah. Guerrero’s price only figures to increase, as long as he doesn’t collapse offensively or suffer a major injury in his walk year. Sure, the New York Mets brought back first baseman Pete Alonso at a relative bargain rate — two years, $54 million — after he set his expectations too high. But Alonso was entering his age-30 season, while Guerrero would hit the open market prior to his age-27 campaign. Teams covet free agents in that range, and the only other elite hitter in next offseason’s class, Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, will be turning 29.
Opening Day is six days away. It stands to reason the Jays will make one more push to keep their biggest star. Shapiro spoke yesterday about how Guerrero can be a “legacy player,” similar to three Hall of Famers whom his father, agent Ron Shapiro, represented — Brooks Robinson, Cal Ripken Jr. and Kirby Puckett. If Mark Shapiro truly believes Guerrero is in that category, then there is no sense delaying this any longer. But if he is merely setting up Guerrero to be the bad guy, all those words he uttered Thursday will ring hollow.
More Guerrero: Jayson Stark writes about Shapiro’s “optimism” that the Jays will keep Guerrero.
At Last: Alex Verdugo (finally) signs
Our free-agent Top 40 Big Board waited patiently, like a puzzle with one piece missing. C’mon, baseball. When do we get to fill in No. 38?
Well, it has now been completed. The Atlanta Braves signed Alex Verdugo to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million yesterday. Here, from that link, are Brendan Kuty and David O’Brien laying out how Verdugo fits with the Atlanta roster:
“They have left-handed hitting Jarred Kelenic to platoon with Bryan De La Cruz in right field until Ronald Acuña Jr. returns, and adding Verdugo gives them more depth as they try to avoid the situation they’ve faced each season in recent years, when injuries forced the Braves to add outfielders via midseason trades or waiver claims. Though the Braves say there are no plans to trade Kelenic, things could get interesting when Acuña returns in May and the daily outfield is set with Jurickson Profar in left, Michael Harris II in center and Acuña in right.”
As Ken addressed in yesterday’s Windup, the Braves might be the sport’s best hope to knock off the defending Dodgers. We’ll have more on them Monday when we preview the NL East.
More Braves: Braves observations: Schwellenbach is superb, Verdugo is signed, Smith-Shawver is rising, by David O’Brien
Rich Storry / Getty Images
Fresh Faces: OK, let’s talk about Cam Smith
All spring, we’ve been hearing different versions on a similar theme from Chandler Rome: The Astros appear to be giving 22-year-old prospect Cam Smith every opportunity to make the Opening Day roster.
Smith, you may recall, was the centerpiece of the Kyle Tucker trade this offseason, coming over from the Cubs with 3B Isaac Paredes and RHP Hayden Wesneski. At the time, nobody really expected that he might break camp with the team.
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But as of writing, Smith’s spring training numbers appear to be justifying — or perhaps “fueling” is more accurate — the optimism. He’s hitting .419/.500/.871 (1.371) with four home runs in 31 at-bats over 13 games.
Today, Rome gives us a deeper look at the prospect, including an eye-popping quote from Smith’s teammate Mauricio Dubón:
“I think he’s going to be the next 60-homer guy.”
Hyperbole? Maybe. Probably. Don’t forget: The guy was drafted by the Cubs at No. 14 out of Florida State last year. He’s only played 32 minor-league games, and all at third base. His best shot to make the team is as a corner outfielder.
So tap the brakes a bit, Mauricio. Smith has to make the big-league roster first. But given the kid’s makeup, talent and the respect he clearly already has from his teammates … that bar might be cleared a lot sooner than anyone expected.
More Astros:
- It has been almost two years since SP Luis García underwent Tommy John surgery. This week, he was shut down yet again after a setback.
Handshakes and High Fives
There’s been a lot of talk this week about MLB’s growth in Japan. Evan Drellich asks: Can Japan’s NPB grow in America?
Back in Arizona, the Cubs are getting back to work ahead of domestic Opening Day, says Sahadev Sharma.
Catcher news: In Philadelphia, Rafael Marchán — not Garrett Stubbs — will back up J.T. Realmuto. And in Cincinnati, the Reds have extended Jose Trevino for three years and $14.925 million.
Hopefully this is the last update on the Jackie Robinson/Department of Defense story, but Pentagon spokesman John Ullyot (who sent the creatively capitalized email reply to our request for information) has been “sidelined,” per the Washington Post.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Our ranking of the top 100 position players in baseball, sorted into six tiers.
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(Top photo: Kim Klement Neitzel / Imagn Images)
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