The semifinals of the first 12-team College Football Playoff were electric, and Monday’s final game in Atlanta – Ohio State vs. Notre Dame – will be a nod to the history and tradition of a sport that has dealt with a head-spinning amount of change in just the past five years.
At the same time, when the Buckeyes and the Fighting Irish take the field at Mercedes Benz Stadium, a Big Ten representative facing the sport’s preeminent independent, we should realize that the results of what was intended as a more inclusive tournament to determine a champion have instead sent the opposite message: Big money, big conferences and big schools still dominate this sport. Always have, always will.
And as the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference consolidate their influence and dominance of college sports – even as their own geographically imbalanced conferences make every other sport under their purview unwieldy – it’s time to face facts: A Super League concept for football is coming.
More than that, I see – hope for? – a time when other college sports re-regionalize. Maybe the conference that currently carries the Pac-12 name is about to reorganize in a different form, but I will not be surprised if, several years down the line, Oregon, Washington, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Arizona and Arizona State regroup for all other sports. Maybe Oregon State and Washington State rejoin them. Maybe, though less likely, Utah and Colorado come back to the fold, too.
We floated this concept four years ago: A federation of schools grouped in a promotion/relegation format for football, with the strongest groups getting the most playoff spots. It’s kind of like what we have now, only in this format there’s no rational argument about who’s in and who’s out. It’s solely about wins and losses and which grouping you’re in.
(I said rational argument. We all know college football fans are famous for being irrational.)
There is this change from the column I wrote before the 2021 season. At that point I felt it important to include the sport’s version of mid-majors. But I think we’ve seen, especially in this tournament, that only a handful of teams can realistically think of a national championship. Cinderella doesn’t wear shoulder pads.
It is, basically, 10-team divisions based on won-loss records, in this case over the last eight seasons, among the programs currently part of the Autonomous Four (plus, for old time’s sake, Oregon State and Washington State). The First Division gets six of its teams into the playoff, the Second Division four, the Third Division three, the Fourth Division two and the Fifth Division one, for a 16-team bracket with no byes.
That’s part of what’s at stake. Also: The top three teams in each division are promoted to the next flight up, and the bottom three are demoted. (But no, smart guy, this doesn’t mean the three top teams in the First Division get promoted to the NFL.)
Scheduling: These are 10-team divisions, and everyone plays everyone else in the division. That leaves room for three nonconference games in a 12-game schedule – but all must be against other teams from the pyramid, and one would be against the traditional rival if it isn’t in your division. (Relax, USC fans: The UCLA game would be safe. As for the Notre Dame game? Ask your coach.)
Using the records for the last eight seasons, this is how it would look if this system were implemented beginning next season (records for this past season in parentheses):
First Division (Top six teams to College Football Playoff, bottom three demoted to Second Division): Georgia 97-14 (11-3); Alabama 96-14 (9-4); Ohio State 91-13 (13-2); Clemson 91-19 (10-4); Notre Dame 87-18 (14-1); Oklahoma 78-21 (6-7); Michigan 77-24 (8-5); Oregon 77-25 (13-1); Penn State 76-27 (13-3); LSU 74-28 (9-4).
Second Division (Top four teams to CFP, top three promoted to First Division, bottom three demoted to Third Division): Texas 70-35 (13-3), Iowa 69-32 (8-5), Central Florida 69-32 (4-8), Washington 66-31 (6-7), SMU 66-35 (11-3), Cincinnati 65-35 (5-7), Oklahoma State 65-38 (3-9), Wisconsin 63-36 (5-7), Utah 63-36 (5-7).
(Reminder, for those who lost track: Central Florida is now in the Big 12.)
Third Division (Three teams to CFP and promoted to Second Division, bottom three demoted to Fourth Division): BYU 63-39 (11-2), North Carolina State 62-37 (6-7), TCU 61-40 (9-4), Kansas State 61-40 (9-4), Iowa State 61-43 (11-3), Miami 60-40 (10-3), USC 59-38 (7-6), Ole Miss 59-39 (10-3), Missouri 59-41 (10-3).
Fourth Division (Two teams to CFP, three teams promoted to Third Division, bottom three demoted to Fifth Division): Minnesota 58-39 (8-5), Florida 58-43 (8-5), Tennessee 57-42 (10-3), Kentucky 57-43 (4-8), South Carolina 57-50 (9-4), Pitt 56-46 (7-6), Auburn 55-46 (5-7), Louisville 55-47 (9-4), Washington State 54-40 (8-5), Wake Forest 54-45 (4-8).
Fifth Division (One team to CFP, three teams promoted to Fourth Division, three demoted to Sixth Division): West Virginia 52-47 (6-7), Michigan State 51-44 (5-7), Florida State 51-47 (2-10), Duke 51-49 (9-4), Baylor 50-50 (8-5), Mississippi State 50-50 (2-10), Virginia Tech 50-50 (6-7), Arizona State 49-45 (11-3), Boston College 49-50 (7-6), Texas Tech 49-50 (8-5).
Sixth Division (Three teams promoted to Fifth Division, three demoted to Seventh Division): North Carolina 49-52 (6-7), Syracuse 48-51 (10-3), UCLA 46-48 (5-7), Virginia 45-51 (5-7), Northwestern 45-52 (4-8), Indiana 44-50 (11-2), Cal 42-50 (6-7), Illinois 42-53 (10-3), Maryland 41-51 (4-8), Purdue 41-54 (1-11).
Seventh Division (Three teams promoted to Sixth Division; top three teams from non-power conferences promoted to Seventh Division; in future seasons, bottom three will be demoted to non-power conferences): Oregon State 40-54 (5-7), Georgia Tech 40-56 (7-6), Stanford 38-55 (3-9), Arkansas 38-59 (7-6), Colorado 37-54 (9-4), Arizona 36-55 (4-8), Nebraska 35-58 (7-6), Rutgers 33-63 (7-6), Vanderbilt 30-65 (7-6), Kansas 29-66 (5-7).
The season would begin during what is now Week Zero, which this past season was Aug. 24, giving teams 15 weeks to play 12 games. The playoffs would begin the first Saturday of December with eight first-round games on home fields. The quarterfinals would be the second week and the semis the third week, all at traditional bowl sites. And, as we suggested a couple of weeks ago, the national championship game would be anchored at the Rose Bowl, 2 p.m. on New Year’s Day.
There. All settled. Now, if the sport’s influential personalities are looking for a commissioner …
jalexander@scng.com
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