As the offseason’s free agent market has developed and with Spring Training looming just over the horizon next month, a report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic this evening suggests that some of the major free agents still available are weighing the possibility of turning towards short-term deals with high average annual values, as the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery did last winter after not finding the long-term pacts they were hoping for in free agency.
Per Rosenthal and Sammon, outfielder Anthony Santander and right-hander Jack Flaherty are both now open to considering that sort of deal. Sammon also confirmed previous reports that indicated the camp of first baseman Pete Alonso had made an three-year offer to the Mets that includes multiple opt-outs, though it remains unclear if he’s open to similar short-term offers from other clubs at this point.
It’s a notable update to the market of all three players. Both Santander and Flaherty were reportedly looking for five-year deals that could have reached into the range of nine figures. Santander in particular reportedly has a contract offer on the table from the Blue Jays as of last week, though given the fact that he’s now open to exploring short-term deals it seems as though that offer may not have been one the switch-hitter was interested in accepting. It’s easy to imagine the possibility of getting a high-end free agent on a short-term deal opens up the market for these players, or perhaps convincing teams already connected to the players to become more serious about their pursuits.
As one example, Flaherty has previously been connected to the Cubs but there’s been some suggestion that Chicago (who signed Bellinger to a short-term, opt-out heavy deal just last winter) has reservations regarding the right-hander’s asking price. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been connected to both Flaherty and Santander but have remained opportunistic in free agency, locking down one-year deals with Gleyber Torres and Alex Cobb to improve their roster without making long-term commitments. Either of these clubs could theoretically be enticed to step up their efforts if their target is now open to considering a short-term deal.
While shorter-term deals can be attractive to teams as a way to mitigate risk associated with a particular free agent, they can still come with complications. While the deals Snell and Chapman signed in San Francisco last winter were clear successes for both sides, with Snell dominating down the stretch in a Giants uniform before signing a lucrative deal in L.A. back in November while Chapman had a resurgent season and extended with the club long-term, not all deals of this variety work out quite so well. Montgomery’s deal with Arizona quickly turned out to be a disaster as the left-hander endured the worst season of his career, got demoted to the bullpen, and has been shopped as a potential salary dump by the Diamondbacks this winter. Bellinger, meanwhile, posted a solid but unspectacular season in Chicago that led the Cubs to dump his salary in a trade with the Yankees last month in order to create an opening in the lineup for the addition of a more impactful bat than Kyle Tucker.
Even with those potential downsides, it’s easy to see why clubs could prefer a short-term deal rather than one that puts them on the hook for a player’s decline phase. After all, the Cubs were still able to shed the vast majority of the money owed to Bellinger in trade even after a pedestrian 2024 season, and the Diamondbacks could end up doing the same even after Montgomery’s disastrous campaign. Swinging those deals would be far more difficult if either player were on lengthy deals with larger overall guarantees, even if the AAV of those deals would likely be lower.
For the players, this sort of approach comes with both pros and cons. There is of course risk involved that injury or poor performance leads to them hitting the market with less value than they had in their initial trip through free agency. In the case of Flaherty, who is currently unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer, taking a short-term deal comes with a bit of extra risk given that even a wildly successful season could end up not leading to the sort of lucrative long-term deal he’s hoping for given the fact that he could be tagged with a QO in a future offseason. For a player already tagged with a QO like Santander, however, signing a short-term deal and hitting free agency after another strong season could provide an even larger boost to his value by allowing him to re-enter free agency unencumbered in the future.
While a willingness to consider short-term, high-AAV offers should open the market up for these players to an extent, that shouldn’t be taken to mean that a massive shakeup is guaranteed. Those high annual salaries figure to be an obstacle for clubs in or on the cusp of luxury tax territory as well as those dealing with budget crunches. As one example, Rosenthal and Sammon suggest that Alonso could look to seek a deal that offers an average annual value of $31.1MM in order to land the AAV record for first basemen. While that appears to be speculative on the part of the pair and they go on to suggest deferred money that would lower the net present value to be involved, even an AAV in the $25MM to $30MM range is the sort of figure that the majority of small-market clubs and even big spenders deep into luxury tax territory could be even less willing to stomach than a somewhat longer-term deal with a lower annual salary.
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