Two years after the five-star quartet of quarterbacks in the ESPN 300 were wowing fans and garnering “next big thing” buzz for their abilities, reality has hit harder than the most ferocious blitzing linebackers.
As college football’s spring transfer portal closed Friday, Malachi Nelson, Jackson Arnold and Dante Moore are looking to ignite their careers at schools different from their initial ones. Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning is the only one from that 2023 group who has stayed with his first choice.
All four quarterbacks were ranked in the top five of the ESPN 300 that year.
“It’s really just a sign of the times,” ESPN’s director of football recruiting Billy Tucker said. “That class wasn’t any less special because they transferred. It’s just that the culture now is about instant gratification. I don’t know that what happened with the 2023 quarterbacks isn’t the norm.”
Nelson was the top ranked prospect in 2023 and began his collegiate career with the USC Trojans.
As a freshman, he served as a backup to Caleb Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner. Nelson threw only three passes that season.
Nelson transferred to Boise State, where he lost out on the starting spot to Maddux Madsen, who led the team to a 12-2 record and an appearance in the College Football Playoff.
Again, Nelson barely saw playing time, going 12-of-17 for just 66 yards last season before reentering the portal.
In January, he reportedly turned down more lucrative offers to join Scotty Walden at UTEP, where the path to being a starter seems like a forgone conclusion.
Moore checked in at No. 2 in 2023 and began his career at UCLA, where he struggled to find a rhythm in limited playing time. In nine games with the Bruins, Moore threw 11 touchdowns, nine interceptions and got sacked 16 times. He transferred to Oregon in December 2023 — after a year sitting behind star quarterback Dillon Gabriel in 2024. Moore appears to be the heir apparent in Eugene though it isn’t guaranteed.
“For most high-profile prospects these days, and certainly quarterbacks, the path to the starting spot needs to be clear by spring of their freshman year,” Tucker said. “And if it’s not then there’s a really good chance they’ll leave.”
The opposite happened for Arnold at Oklahoma, but it still wasn’t enough.
The 6-foot-1, 211-pounder was ranked No. 3 in 2023 and won Gatorade National Player of the Year as a high school senior. By his sophomore season in Norman, he earned the starting position.
Arnold amassed 1,421 passing yards, 444 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns in a dismal 6-6 season that saw him get demoted and promoted. The tumultuous experience prompted Arnold to transfer to Auburn in December. His path to outright starter seems imminent.
Then there’s Manning, who checked in at No. 5 overall in 2023.
Being the grandson of New Orleans Saints legend Archie Manning and nephew of Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks Peyton and Eli Manning, Arch summed up his thought process about remaining at Texas in five words in a recent news conference, simply saying, “Sometimes it’s worth the wait.”
In two years in Austin, Manning has appeared in nine games, two of which he started.
Last season, he went 61-of-90 passing for 939 yards and nine touchdowns and rushed for 108 yards and four more scores.
Now, the stage is set for him to lead the Longhorns during the 2025 season.
“This used to be the norm,” Tucker said of Manning waiting his turn. “You wait the two years and you’re starting as a junior. Now, even if you’re getting paid, it’s not enough if you’re not starting. Any adversity and the guys are leaving. It’s just the current landscape in college football.”
Tucker, who also serves as director of the Under Armour All-America Game, said he would caution current and future stars about using the transfer portal entry as a knee-jerk reaction.
“Look at Georgia, a lot of their defensive guys are one-year starters and then they’re in the NFL first round,” Tucker said. “It’s not like you need three years of proven production to make it. That NIL money could get multiplied by at least five in my opinion. If you can stay the course and have one to two good years at a proven program, you’ll more than make up any money you could’ve lost in NIL. It’s more about the people guiding these players not being as informed as they need to be. It stinks, but until there are rules to govern the current landscape, we’ll continue to see this.”
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