Iowa State football has a chance to improve to 8-0 with a win over Texas Tech on Saturday, which would be a new record for the best start in school history.
However, the Cyclones are thinking bigger.
Much bigger.
“I don’t know if it would mean much, but to me, my biggest chase is how we finish the season − what kind of team do we become through the month of November?” said coach Matt Campbell. “We’ve done a lot of firsts here that haven’t been done and that’s all awesome, but the reality of it is, you’re defined by how you finish and what you do to finish this thing out. Obviously, winning is something you want to do and that will be a huge piece of our success or not.
“… We got a big month in November. We got big games coming. Our kids have done a great job of putting ourselves in position to play important games in November and we’re going to have to demand to get ourselves better and I think that’s a great challenge in front of this team right now.”
The 10th-ranked Cyclones have five games left. Three are at home: Texas Tech (Saturday), Cincinnati (Nov. 16) and Kansas State (Nov. 30).
The other two are on the road: Kansas (Nov. 9) and Utah (Nov. 23).
Even with the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format making its debut this season, the margin for error remains small.
Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark stated at the league’s basketball media days last month that he believes the conference is on pace to have “multiple teams in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.”
Other Big 12 teams in the hunt for a Playoff spot
Undefeated No. 12 BYU (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) is the front-runner for a spot in the Big 12 title game and will be a challenger to Iowa State for the conference title.
No. 15 Kansas State (7-1, 4-1) is the last ranked opponent remaining on Iowa State’s schedule and plenty will be riding on that Nov. 30 regular-season finale. If both the Cyclones and Wildcats, who suffered thier only loss to BYU, continue to win, that game will decide who gets to join the Cougars in the Big 12 title game.
Colorado (6-2, 4-1) is further out on the bubble with a very slim chance to crack the 12-team field. It’s a longshot, but if the Buffaloes win out and get some help, the door to an at-large bid for the Playoff remains open − albeit just a crack. ESPN currently lists Colorado with a 7.8% chance to make the Playoff.
Does Iowa State have wiggle room in the event something goes wrong down the stretch? Here’s a look at potential scenarios for the Cyclones and what it could potentially mean for their College Football Playoff prospects.
Best-case scenario for Iowa State: Win out and win the Big 12 title
This would be a historic accomplishment, as the Cyclones capture their first Big 12 championship and lock up a top-four seed, plus a first-round bye, for the Playoff.
Given the new postseason format, the top five conference champions would be ranked and seeded in order, with the top four seeds earning byes.
The top four seeds will go to the Power 4 champions from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. For seeding purposes, the fifth team will come out of the remaining conferences, which will be the best title-winning team between the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt.
In this scenario, Iowa State would likely be the No. 4 seed in the Playoff. There is an outside chance it could acquire the No. 3 seed, but it would take some serious help from other teams.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Cyclones have a 7.6% of winning out and capturing the Big 12 title.
Scenario B: Iowa State goes unbeaten for the regular season, but loses the Big 12 title game
The Cyclones avoid regular-season chaos and make it to the Big 12 championship, where it will likely face BYU.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Cyclones are favored in each of their five remaining regular season games. However, the Kansas (55.9% chance for Iowa State to win) and Kansas State (53.1%) games are projected to be close.
Should the Cyclones win out and lose to the Cougars in the title game to finish 12-1, there are no guarantees. Still, this would be their best opportunity at an at-large bid to land in the Playoff field, especially if it’s a closely contested conference championship game.
Scenario C: Iowa State loses to Kansas State and misses Big 12 title game
No disrespect to the Cyclones’ other remaining opponents, but it’s clear that the Wildcats are the biggest potential roadblock to a spot in Arlington.
In this scenario, if the Cyclones finish 11-1, with their lone loss coming against Kansas State, their Playoff hopes don’t appear to be great.
It will be interesting to see how the selection committee will handle a situation if Kansas State goes unbeaten the rest of the way and continues its run by beating BYU for the conference crown. That would mean the Big 12 would likely finish with three one-loss teams — Kansas State, BYU and Iowa State.
Unfortunately, Playoff projection models don’t seem to favor the Big 12. Cyclone fans will be sweating things out on the bubble for the College Football Playoff bracket reveal on Dec. 8.
Even if Kansas State were to make the title game and set up a rematch with BYU, a second loss to the Cougars may mean only one bid for the conference, with the Cougars nabbing the Playoff spot.
The odds aren’t great if Iowa State misses the Big 12 title game, and that regular-season finale with Kansas State will have an early Playoff-type feel as a must-win game for both teams.
Scenario D: Iowa State loses two regular season games and finishes 10-2
It doesn’t matter where the losses come from, but two regular-season losses would be backbreaking for the Cyclones’ Playoff hopes.
The consolation prize would be Iowa State getting its first 10-win season in program history. The Cyclones would then have to turn their focus to the next-best thing and try to win their bowl game.
It’s amazing to see that a 10-win season would be the worst-case scenario at this point of the year for the Cyclones, but it’s also a testament to what they’ve been able to accomplish in a season filled with milestones.
Can the Cyclones finish the season strong?
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
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