The 2025 season really hasn’t gone the Atlanta Braves’ way.
They started out by going 0-7 against the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. Then, the recovery of superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. took longer than expected, keeping him out for the first month and a half of the season.
The Braves though, seemed to battle back. They fought their way to a .500 record by May 13th at 21-21, and with Acuna set to return just 10 days later, Atlanta looked to be a threat in the National League East. Except even after getting Acuna back, the Braves won just three of their next 11 games.
Thursday afternoon’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, though, seemed to be the perfect opportunity snap a three-game losing streak.
The Braves jumped out to an early 6-0 lead thanks to some timely hitting from Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and Ozzie Albies. Homers from Acuna, Austin Riley and Drake Baldwin made it 9-3 heading into the eighth inning. Even after a Ketel Marte bomb made it 9-4, Michael Harris singled in an insurance run to make it 10-4 with just three outs to go for the Braves bullpen.
When Eugenio Suarez struck out to start the top of the 9th, the Diamondbacks win expectancy was just 0.1%. You’ll never guess what happened next.
Jun 5, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez (28) runs after hitting a double to drive in two runs against the Atlanta Braves during the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Diamondbacks Stage Spectacular Comeback Over Braves
Lourdes Gurriel homered to make it 10-5 with one out and nobody on. No big deal, right? Win probability for Arizona barely moved, from 0.1% to 0.2%.
Tim Tawa then walked. Still, not a problem, win expectancy was just 0.5%. Then Alek Thomas homered. Then Jose Herrera walked. Corbin Carroll doubled. Ketel Marte hit an infield single, making the score 10-8, still with just one out.
Geraldo Perdomo though, popped up, moving the Braves just one out away from closing out an unnecessarily tense victory. Sure enough though, Illedmaro Vargas singled, to make it 10-9. Suddenly that win expectancy for the Diamondbacks jumped to 14%.
Then, the final blow: Eugenio Suarez doubled to make it 11-10. A 10-4 lead, erased.
Here’s how the win probability chart looked:
Just how bad, historically bad, was this loss?
As David O’Brien posted on X, the Braves had won 766 consecutive games when leading by at least six runs after eight innings. They hadn’t lost a game with a lead that big in the ninth inning in 52 years.
From the Diamondbacks side, ESPN Research found that Arizona had never, literally never in their entire history, won a game when trailing by that many runs entering the eighth inning, let alone the ninth. They’d been 0-334 when losing by six in the eighth. And an even worse 0-418 when losing by six in the ninth. The Braves helped them make Diamondbacks franchise history.
Instead of breaking a losing streak and gaining some positive momentum, the Braves dropped to 3-9 in their last 12 games. 2-8 in their last 10. On the season, they’re now 27-34, a whopping 11 games behind the first place New York Mets and seven games behind even the third wild card spot.
Given how bad things have gotten, it’s worth asking: is this the end of the window for Atlanta?
The Braves won the 2021 World Series, then followed it up with back-to-back 100+ win seasons in 2022 and 2023. Despite falling to just 89 wins in 2024, they returned to the playoffs…only to last all of two games, getting swept by the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Series.
From 104 wins in 2023, to 27-34 through the first 61 games of 2025. How much worse can it get?
The good news for Atlanta is that they have a positive run differential, despite the poor record. Their expected record, instead of 27-34, is 31-30. Still not great, but much more competitive in the wild card race. Acuna has returned at his usual high level, and Jurickson Profar will be back from his suspension for a positive PED test by early July. Reynaldo Lopez is expected to return late in the season. Drake Baldwin has also looked like a star in the making, and Ozuna and Olson have turned in typically solid seasons.
The bad news? Well there’s plenty of it, for one thing. The rotation is a mess, outside of Chris Sale, while closer Raisel Iglesias has a 5.79 ERA. Michael Harris has been awful, nearly 40% worse than league average on offense. Ozzie Albies is well on his way to a second consecutive below-average season. Austin Riley, who put up three consecutive six win seasons from 2021-2023 with elite offense, has fallen off to a batting line just 13% better than league average. He’s on pace for just over three wins this year.
Then there’s Spencer Strider. Strider was one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers in 2022 and 2023, but after returning from Tommy John and a hamstring injury, he’s been awful. Far from the unhittable velocity and devastating slider of several years ago, he’s allowed 12 earned runs in 19 innings, good for a 5.68 ERA. He averaged 98.2mph on his fastball in 2022. This year it’s 95.2mph. Welcome to pitching and the inevitability of injuries.
Fangraphs still gives Atlanta a 36% chance of making the postseason, and there’s plenty of time for some positive regression and for Strider to improve as the season wears on. The difficult question for the Braves will be how long to wait. Do they buy at the deadline, or sell? Marcell Ozuna is a free agent after the season, and could bring back some useful prospects, given the thin class of available players. Chris Sale has a club option for 2026, making him a valuable trade candidate, if need be.
There’s still a core group of players under team control for the next few seasons, but the window of dominating the NL East appears to be over. The window to make the postseason at all might be closing up quickly too.
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