Alright, Auburn. Now that you’re finally moved up into the No. 1 spot in the polls after Tennessee face-planted against Florida, are you ready to wear the crown? Are you ready for every opponent to crank up that extra edge to try knocking you off?
Alright, Mississippi State. You just lost at home to Kentucky in a 95-90 shootout, and this begins a BRUTAL run with Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at South Carolina, and Alabama up next. Are you ready to show the world that you’re a true player? Pull off the win over the Tigers, and the season will take a whole other turn.
Date: Tuesday January 14, 2025
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
How To Watch: SEC Network
Venue: Neville Arena, Auburn, AL
Teams: Mississippi State (13-2), Auburn (15-1)
Fiu Bluesky
Prediction Record So Far
Straight Up 2-1, ATS 3-0
Point Total 3-0
Why Mississippi State Will Win
Auburn just got really small.
Star Johni Broome is suffering through an ankle injury, taking his 18 points and 10.7 rebounds out of the mix. Auburn will still be active on the boards, and it has plenty of scoring punch, but that’s a 6-10 all-around Player of the Year candidate who won’t be bothering the Bulldogs.
How did Auburn lose to Duke earlier in the year? The Blue Devils held their own on the boards – again, Broome being out matters here – and more than anything else …
TURNOVERS. Auburn is No. 1 in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, and while it doesn’t crank up a ton of fast-break points, forcing mistakes and taking over the tempo and momentum by winning the turnover margin is just about everything.
Duke turned it over just four times. Iowa State turned it over a mere eight times in the 83-81 loss, and South Carolina kept it close with just seven turnovers.
Mississippi State is seventh in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio and 12th in turnover margin. However …
Why Auburn Will Win
In Mississippi State’s three stingiest turnover games of the season, it gave it up six times twice and five one other time. It beat Central Michigan on that five-time game, and those other two were the losses to Butler and Kentucky.
You beat the Bulldogs from the outside. Butler hit 12 threes in its victory, Kentucky hit 16, and no one else has been able to get past ten.
Auburn hardly lives off the three, but it makes them when it takes them. Without Broome, ball movement, tempo, the extra pass – nothing changes. The threes have to fall, though. Auburn has connected on ten or more threes in eight games and needs to get to the 40% mark.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Who Will Win?
This might not be as strong an Auburn team without its best player, but everyone else will rise up. It’ll be more of a perimeter battle, but the Bulldogs won’t be afraid to run a bit. They’ll move and keep up the pace throughout.
But a burst of a Tiger run midway through the second hal will change the game a bit. The Auburn D from three will clamp down, the free throws that weren’t falling against South Carolina will start to connect, and this will be a whale of a Tuesday night SEC brawl that comes down to the last possession.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction, Betting Lines
Prediction: Auburn 80, Mississippi State 73
Line: Auburn -7.5, o/u: 150.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 5
– SEC Power Rankings
– How to Watch Auburn vs Mississippi State
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