‘Bama Basketball Breakdown: High on potential and athleticism, Illinois still remains a mystery

What do we know about Illinois, after a season that saw them reach the Elite Eight and finally somewhat live up to their potential?

Their schedule to-date won’t tell you very much. Sure, everyone eases into the season with regional teams if they can. But UI’s is straight up absurd — one of the worst in the country (347 SOS): Southern Illinois – Edwardsville (304), Eastern Illinois (344), and Oakland. The Grizzlies are probably the only one you’ve heard of that has any sort of demonstrable track record, and even Oakland is just 211th. As a result, their Ken Pom rankings are probably…a tad inflated, at least for now.

So, what do we know?

We know that the Illini lost a good bit of talent, but imported some through the Portal, and brought in some outstanding freshman. We know Brad Underwood’s teams will try and bully you with a hybrid Ur-Big Ten brand of rugby on parquet. The Illinois move quickly, but they’re not a true tempo team, preferring to be strategic with their pace. We know their past results: They’ve finished the season Top 30 in Ken Pom the last five years, and twice inside the Top 10. We know that it’s a team high on potential, but whose talent was overlooked by the preseason All-Big Ten projections — netting zero preseason all-conference players.

So, we go into this one almost blind, and have to think of the Illini like a steady returning investment in the market: Generally neither too high, nor too low; overall good returns; fundamentally solid; but not something you think about very often…unless there is a very bad day at the office. To extend the analogy, Underwood’s Illinois is Walmart, in the best sense: It may not wow you, but there are almost always solid returning margins, and they seem to grow a bit stronger every year.

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Tale of the Tape: No. 20 Illinois (3-0) vs No. 2 Alabama (3-1)

Spread (Totals): Alabama -3.5 (O/U 164.0)

Opponent KenPom: 25 (6 offense, 51 defense, 48 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 31 (26 offense, 37 defense, 49 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 22 (41 offense, 11 defense, 38 tempo)
Opponent NET: Q1
Opponent Best Win: Oakland (No. 211)
Opponent Worst Loss: N/A

Alabama KenPom: 10 (5 offense, 48 defense, 18 tempo)
Alabama Evan Miya: 11 (7 offense, 24 defense, 5 tempo)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 12 (12 offense, 22 defense, 12 tempo)
NET Ranking: N/A
Best Win: ASU (104), McNeese (102)
Worst Loss: I refuse to put No. 12 Purdue here

Last week, when we covered Purdue, I wrote that the Boilermakers would be one of the very best offenses that the Tide faced all year, with a remarkably dangerous backcourt that also surrendered a lot of good looks from the arc, and that was prone to being outrebounded; that the Tide would have to shoot their way to a win. Sadly, every last word of that came to pass as another cold night doomed ‘Bama. But the point here is that data are instructive when assessing a prospective opponent.

The Illini are on the other end of that Big 10 spectrum: that athleticism that Purdue lacks, Illinois makes up for in spades. It’s an athletic team with a perfectly competent offense and easily one of the best defenses that ‘Bama will face — you’d probably put them just a half-step somewhere below Houston, Tennessee, and Auburn, though in the same realm as Aggie and Cal’s Hogs.

We’ll start with that defense, and even conceding that some of the data points are skewed, the Illini are nevertheless 8th in the country in effective floor defense — and 13th in defending the perimeter. Alabama is not going to find much space out there, with Underwood’s aggressive man-to-man system.

The thing that has prevented an outstanding defense from becoming an elite one is frankly disappointing results on the glass. They’re in the Bottom 1/3rd in defensive rebounding efficiency, and barely Top 1/3rd in following up their own misses. Teams have been getting far too many second chance points and regaining possession — and certainly relative to the opponent. SIUE was able to match IU almost board-for-board; in fact, even their rebounding efficiency is somewhat overstated by overpowering one of the shortest teams in college basketball and finishing +30 on the night vs. EIU. The best barometer is how UI fared against SIUE: 47-41 advantage against a team with merely average D1 height and experience. When you’re losing position to or being outworked by the likes of SIU-Edwardsville, that’s not a great harbinger for Big 10 play.

Offensively, the Illini manufacture their own luck. Illinois net a bucket on about 57% of their trips — good, but not elite. Where there real danger lies is in perimeter shooting and getting to the line. IU draw a foul on 50% of their shooting possessions, good for 2nd in the country. That free throw efficiency is able to get to the line 37.6% of their shooting possessions. Overall, that means about one in six trips down the floor sees the Illini getting to the stripe.

Again, that has to be taken somewhat with a shaker of salt, given the size disparity they’ve had over every opponent. Illinois should be getting a lot of free throws if they’re feeding the post. But, against their “best” opponent, Oakland, Illinois only held a plus-six FT advantage.

They are decent volume shooting team from the arc, and they are a good one: 38-39% on most nights, so they make their two-dozen or so count. Alabama’s woeful shooting has seen them net just 31% this year, and their perimeter defense is merely decent, ranking 110th. If the Tide give the Illini space and don’t play their assignment, they’re going to get lit up again.

If the Illini’s offense looks somewhat familiar, that’s because it should. Like ‘Nova, ‘Barn, and the Tide, Illinois run a four-out system with a lot of spacing around the perimeter. Schematically, they are closer to the ‘Barn and Villanova though: Illinois takes a lot of hard cuts to the basket and drives the lane. That penetration is one reason why Illinois gets to the line so well. It’s not a rim-and-three team, in other words; it is a vanilla NBA offense, with a lot of ball reversal and emphasis on shot selection. If the Tide are the Warriors, the Illini are the Nuggets.

So who’s making these baskets? I’ll tell you who’s not there: Terrence Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask, Dain Dainja, Coleman Hawkins, Quincy Guerrier, Sencire Harris, Amani Hansberry, Justin Harmon and Luke Goode. Every last one moved on. The Illini return just one starter (Ty Rogers) and one bench rotational player. This is very similar to the 2024 Tide, who lost nine starters and key reserves, and the ‘Bama game will test a lot of continuity, depth, and quality.

But, at least early, the Illini have it, and it is a team with international flavor. Their leading scorer is true freshman wing Will Riley (17.7 PPG), who is positively lethal from the perimeter, and hasn’t shot below 50% there all season. At the point, Illinois brought in Kylan Boswell from Arizona, who averaged 10/4 last year, and picked up another 3 rebounds and steals per game.

After Purdue, you thought you were done with big goofy white boys? That’s a free square on your Big 10 bingo card, and Illinois has three more: Kasparus Jakucionis; the Lithuanian freshman G is a fantastic ballhandler and has a preternatural ability to find the open man on the court. He already leads the team with 7.7 APG. Down low, 7’1” Croatian center, Tomislav Ivisic is the Illini’s second-leading scorer (also at 17 per game), and damn near averages a double-double, with 9.0 per contest. He’s joined in the frontcourt by rangy forward Freshman, Morez Johnson, who averages another 8 boards a night, and leads the team in blocks. Senior Ben Humrichous, another 6’9” swing-forward does a bit of every thing well, and is yet another fantastic shooter from the perimeter.

Guard Tre White comes off the bench as a spark plug, and is both a competent rebounder and another very good three-guy. The surprise of the year, however, has been Sophomore Dra Gibbs-Lawthorne, who in limited playing time is already averaging 10 a night from the bench.

While we’ve praised the perimeter shooting of the Illini, it should be noted that this is not a team like Purdue or McNeese, where almost everyone in the backcourt can nail one from 23-feet. There are three real standouts at the wing and guard spots (White, Humrichous, Wiley) with everyone else being some variety of meh-to-bad so far. And it is a good FT shooting squad, with five players hitting at or above 80% — including their wrecking ball down low.

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There’s no time for the Tide to lick their wounds after a 38-minute game where they were always within a shot or two of Purdue. Alabama has to get its act together and rebound for Illinois — in the metaphorical sense, and very much in the literal sense. The Illini have outstanding size, even better than Purdue: They are the 4th tallest team in the nation, the tallest one ‘Bama will face all season, and clock in at 6’9” on average.

That, coupled with Illinois’s trio of perimeter shooters, hard cuts to the basket, and great FT shooting from the starters, are going to pose defensive problems, certainly. And that cannot music to the ears of the Alabama staff, who has seen opposing perimeter shooters have an absolute field day against the Tide.

Some of it has been size (Sears just isn’t built for 6’7” point guards who can shoot 44% from three-land). A lot has been the result of facing very talented shooters. But more than a little of it 100% laziness. That is correct: Laziness. In particular, we have to call out Jarin Stevenson, who has spent four games now camping out on the baseline on offense, and being woefully lazy on defense. The way Illinois gets to the basket, absolutely nothing about Stevenson’s game has convinced me that he has bought-in on this season.

Coach Oats will be tempted to once again start our point-killing tall roster of Grant, Jarin, and Cliff. But he really should consider inserting Reid into the starting lineup. Good things just happen. He gets after it on defense, is heat-seeking missile on the glass, pressures opposing defenses with his slipperiness on offense. He’s not a great scorer…yet. But he’s ready to get the call-up, or at least has deserved consideration. He’s third on the team in +/-, and leads Alabama in rebounds per 40. Likewise, the Tide may finally get around to using Cliff for more than 22 minutes a night.

It would also really help if Alabama can finally nail some open shots from the beyond arc…assuming they see very many good ones from the Illini. But, again, we caution that against the Illini’s schedule, we still know very little concrete about the athletic visitors. They look the part, and they are certainly high on potential. How high the ceiling is anyone’s guess. We’ll find out on Wednesday the answer to that.

The game is yet another marquee one away from Tuscaloosa (CM Newton Classic, in Birmingham), and yet another late one. Tip is at 8:00 God’s Right and Proper Central Standard Time, and is shown on SEC Network. ‘Bama is an early -3.5 point favorite. Owing to the bevvy of threes these teams jack up (Illinois averages 13 makes per game, by themselves), it’s also expected to be another high-scoring one (164.0 totals).

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

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