‘Bama Basketball Breakdown: With time running out, Alabama needs to trim the fat against Kent State

I’m not even going to recap the season to-date, except to say that Alabama has played 11 games, and only intermittently has looked like they are serious…serious about defense, serious about each possession, serious contenders.

Rather, aside from some offensive spurts in bigger games, good perimeter defense against Illinois, and one half of great defense against Houston, the only thing this team has been serious about is being a serious clownshow. And, as we expected, it is the product of effort and attention.

“In practice, I thought we were significantly better on defense,” Oats said. “But it’s can you do it every day even if it’s not after giving up 40 to a particular scorer? We’re gonna challenge our guys defensively until we get the defense figured out. We need everybody to step up, and that’s been the theme the last couple days around here.”

Nate Oats is sick of it. We’re sick of it. The half-a-dozen players on this team that do try are sick of it. And it shows. The Tide are even having to go back to summer developmental camp. It should not be this bad, frankly, after Oats went and specifically hired a defensive specialist this year…but it’s somehow worse, with the Tide allowing a putrid 99.6 points per 100 possessions.

But it has to end, and it has to end today. Otherwise, this is just an empty threat:

It should not have taken a dozen games to see who’s preternaturally lazy. We knew that after two games…and after half-a-dozen…and after two months. It’s the same offenders, almost every time. And we knew after a mere handful of contests that Jarin does not need to be starting, period.

Nor should the rotation really be in question at this point. There is a core group of three who vastly outperform everyone else: Grant, Sears, Labaron — there’s 60% of your starting group. Cliff’s offense is limited, but he’s been great off-ball defensively in ways that don’t always show up in the box score. There’s your center. Meanwhile, Holloway and Reid Mallette have been the best two-way players in the 4-7 lineup. And you work Youngblood in to get ready for the season…if he is even all that he’s cracked up to be.

Everyone else is practice-to-practice, possession-to-possession, game-to-game. And if they don’t want to play hard, play smart, then they don’t play. And if that core group wants to loaf, you bench them too — you find someone who wants to play, even if you pull the Rec League Champ out of the Crimson Chaos student section. Simple as. Alabama has just three more alleged tuneups to sort this out before the SEC schedule begins with a Top 15 road game in Norman.

And today’s opponent is not a gimme either, not with the way these indolent, desultory, listless, lifeless, loafing, entitled head cases are pissing away their talent…in what was supposed to be a magical season.

Time to turn it around, fellas. Because this Kent State squad can beat you.

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Tale of the Tape: Kent State (No. 118, 8-2) vs Alabama (No. 7, 9-2)

Spread (Totals): Alabama -20.5 (O/U 154.5)

Opponent KenPom: 118 (216 offense, 64 defense, 22 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 113 (154 offense, 96 defense, 20 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 112 (240 offense, 331 defense, 187 tempo)
Opponent NET: 102 (Q3)
Opponent Best Win: N/A
Opponent Worst Loss: 92 (UC Irvine)

Alabama KenPom: 8 (6 Off, 51 Defense, 10th Tempo)
Evan Miya: 7 (4 Off, 28 Defense, 2nd Tempo)
Bart Torvik: 8 (5 Off, 46 Defense, 4th Tempo)
NET Ranking: 12 (5-2 Q1/2)
Best Win: No. 4 (N) Houston
Worst Loss: No. 26 at Purdue

In a perfect world, Alabama would be — in many respects — what Kent State are: defensive specialists that operate at tempo. The Tide has played fast teams this season: Illinois, UNC, Rutgers, but this is the first one that combines that speed with some very good scoring defense. It doesn’t always show analytically, but the Golden Flashes do a tremendous job keeping opponents off the scoreboard. They rarely get above the upper 60s/lower 70s offensively, so you need to hit 70 to beat team. The problem is, even the nation’s best offense (No. 1 Auburn) only got to 76 points against Kent State. KSU are 12th nationally in scoring defense, and only allow 19 made baskets per game.

What is baffling is that Kent State should simply not be this good, not on paper. They’re one of the smallest teams in the country, averaging 6’3” per man. They routinely get killed on the defensive glass (they are averaging -9 in T1-T3 games). They are hideous scorers: 326th in the nation. They shoot just 45% from the floor. They’re sub-30% from three-point range. And they’re in the bottom 20 in effective field goal shooting (345th).

But, Kent State are very aggressive offensive rebounders, they don’t turn it over much, they force quite a few TOs on defense, and they play at a lightning pace.

If a swarm of hornets were a basketball team, it would be this one. And like a swarm of hornets, they can kill you with a thousand stings, despite any one person having a knockout punch.

If there were a “star” of this ultimate blue collar team, it is VonCameron Davis, and he’s certainly the most consistent. The swing-man for the Flash has hit double-digits in all-but one game this season (and he was nicked up in that one), routinely flirts with 18-20 a night, and averages 15 overall.

But, unlike other teams we’ve seen this year, everyone chips in to contribute to Kent’s success.

Their leading rebounder? Center Cli’ron Hornbeak. Best defender? Off-ball G Marquis Bennett. Best ball-distributor? PG Cian Medley in raw terms, but his backup Jamal Sumlin is even better at dishing them out on a per-40 basis. Best rim defender? Hornbeak by sheer volume, but both of the power forwards (Magnus and Gillespie) are more impactful on a per-possession basis. Best perimeter defender? Jalen Sullinger. The three-guard, Morgan Safford? Best three-point shooter…and two other rotation players are right up there with him in terms of overall accuracy to stand out on a team of bad shooters.

See what I mean? This is exactly the kind of team that has traditionally given Nate Oats teams fits — and that he desperately wants Alabama to become — unselfish, complete buy-in across the bench, fast, aggressive, and playing hard on every possession.

There’s one blue collar team on the floor today, and after a dozen games, you can’t say that it is Alabama. If the Tide has another cold shooting night, and doesn’t play smart, they can certainly lose an ugly low-scoring tilt to a smarter team that hustles and protects the ball better.

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Bottom Line

If it’s truly back to basics, then the Tide can prove it by matching Kent State with defensive intensity. That execrable display of inattentive, entitled, egotistical slop we saw on Wednesday cannot happen again, be that against Kent State or Kentucky. This is a poor shooting team that Alabama holds a five-inch height advantage over, on average. This game should not be close in rebounding, in shooting, and certainly not in the score.

Anything less that a comfortable double-digit win, one where Alabama is not pressing to beat back the flood for 40 straight minutes, is a failure.

Period.

How To Watch

Noon Central on SEC Network

Prediction

I simply don’t believe in this group in the long-term, and sure as hell not enough to cover a -20.5 point spread. I think, for all the talk of back-to-the-OG, you can’t expect a tiger to change its stripes. The Tide will shoot poorly from the perimeter, they will be outhustled far too often, they will have some inexplicable defensive lapses, they will commit too many stupid turnovers while forcing few of their own. And, in the end, they’ll simply out-talent an opponent who plays harder. We’ve seen it 6-7 times already this year. No reason to believe that changes today. I think it’s going to take losing three or four in a row to open SEC play before it really sinks in.

If it does.

Alabama 75
Kent State 64

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

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