It’s Sweet 16 Thursday and we have four high-level basketball games on the docket as the NCAA Tournament resumes.
After an exciting first weekend of March Madness, we now move to the business portion of the NCAA Tournament as teams vie for a spot in the Final Four. With tighter matchups, how should we attack player props in games like Duke vs. Arizona and Florida vs. Maryland?
We have you covered below with a trio of over to bet on Thursday.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Aden Holloway OVER 10.5 Points (-125)
Holloway is the most dangerous 3-point shooter on the Crimson Tide offense, so I expect this matchup to lead to even more time for the sophomore guard than his typical 20 or so minutes.
In the NCAA Tournament, he has only gone over this mark in one of two games, but given the matchup against BYU, I believe that the Saint Mary’s game is far more predictive of his role.
Against the Gaels, a compact defense that plays drop coverage similar to BYU, Holloway had 12 points on four-of-six shooting in 22 minutes. The Cougars try to wall off the rim for opponents and allow the 24th highest 3-point rate in the nation. Holloway is a 41% 3-point shooter and is a potent spot up shooter, which is typically what BYU is fine allowing.
With a potential uptick in volume, I’ll target Holloway’s over points in a potential shootout.
Rodney Rice OVER 12.5 Points (-125)
Maryland will face a stingy Florida defense, but I believe we are getting a discount on Rice, who is averaging nearly 14 points per game and is averaging 14 field goal attempts per game in the NCAA Tournament.
Rice is a 3-point threat as well, averaging six in the two tournament games, which may be there after we saw UConn take the top off the Florida defense with 29 3-point attempts.
The guard isn’t an elite 3-point shooter, but is more than capable at 37%, and given his volume I like him to at the very least get to his average quota in a game with a total in the mid 150’s.
Kon Kneuppel OVER 2.5 Assists (+100)
Kneuppel has been relatively quiet as Duke blitzed the competition in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but his assist total has dropped down from what it was in the first game when it was 3.5 at even money.
The freshman had two dimes against Mount Saint Mary’s in 19 minutes and three in 27 minutes against Baylor, and I believe that we see him play north of 30 minutes in what is expected to be the team’s most competitive game of the NCAA Tournament against a formidable Arizona team.
However, the Wildcats don’t stunt ball movement all that much, ranking around the national average in assist rate allowed.
In games where Kneuppel has played 30 or more minutes, he has gone over this mark in 15 of 20 games. With a matchup that won’t stunt ball movement for the Blue Devils, this can be a good spot for the future lottery pick to get back to stuffing the stat sheet.
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