We have arrived at the final weekend of multiple college football games this season with a pair of semifinal matchups.
With that comes an expanded player prop menu, and I’m keying in on pivotal skill position players like Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson and Texas’ Quintrevion Wisner in the Cotton Bowl as well as Penn State’s Harrison Wallace in the Orange Bowl.
Below, you will find three player props for this weekend’s pair of semifinal matchups.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Harrison Wallace OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards
Wallace came up just short of his player prop in the Fiesta Bowl, catching three of four targets for 37 yards, but his receiving yard total is up two yards in this one.
Despite going under, I’m going back to the well with the Nittany Lions’ top wide receiver option.
Wallace had gone over this number in every game dating back to Week 6 before the Fiesta Bowl and with Notre Dame’s strength at safety that can potentially limit tight end Tyler Warren, Drew Allar may focus on Wallace more.
Further, this matchup suits Wallace nicely, who is the best wide receiver against man coverage, which is a foundation of Al Golden’s defense with Notre Dame. Wallace has caught 12 of 13 targets against man coverage, the second most on the team with a gaudy 3.11 yards per route run, per Pro Football Focus.
Look for Wallace to factor into the pass game a ton in this one.
TreVeyon Henderson OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards
Henderson continues to be limited in terms of his usage, but there may not be a more effective running back left in the CFP field.
The Ohio State ground game does feature a healthy dose of both Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, but I’m going to opt to back the explosive running back in Henderson, who is averaging north of seven yards per carry.
In the postseason, Henderson has 174 yards on 18 carries, including a 66-yard house call against Oregon. The Texas rush defense is elite, but I believe that we see Henderson continue to produce at about five yards per carry and get about 10 carries en route to going over this mark yet again.
Quintrevion Wisner UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards
The Longhorns struggled to get the ground game going against Arizona State, posting only 63 yards on the ground against Arizona State.
While the Sun Devils rush defense is elite, the Buckeyes defensive line has arguably the best group in the country. Ohio State is top five in EPA/Rush while allowing less than three yards per carry.
Wisner had a majority of the workload on the ground in double overtime thriller, rushing the ball for only 45 yards on 18 carries while Jaydon Blue had only four carries. The running back volume has changed week-to-week, but the biggest concern for me heading into this one is that I believe Texas will be in a negative game script.
The Longhorns won’t be able to try and establish the run in this one and get Wisner going as a rusher, maybe focusing on getting him the ball in the passing game. Texas is catching nearly a touchdown and will need to pass to stay within arm’s length of the Buckeyes, and I believe that comes at the expense of the ground game.
I like Wisner to stay under in what is a poor matchup for the entire team, particularly the team’s ground game.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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