The College Football Playoff beckons, and sportsbooks are starting to take wagers on the 12 teams that will officially make up the field in 2025.
Last season, the inaugural 12-team CFP gave us important insight into how the selection committee will operate going forward. The exclusion of 9-win SEC teams set a clear benchmark to hit in the regular season. The selection of SMU suggested an appearance in a power conference title game is valuable. Of course, the selection committee could throw everything out the window this season and operate completely differently. Doing so wouldn’t surprise anyone. The only consistent trait in that room is inconsistency. But, for now, it feels safe to bet on teams that will either A) win 10 games, or B) make their conference title game.
Below, you’ll find 4 schools I’m targeting right now given their current value.
Clemson to make the Playoff (-140 via BetMGM)
We’ll get a favorite out of the way first, but Clemson is a virtual lock to make the CFP in my estimation and the markets aren’t treating the Tigers the same way… yet. Jumping on this number now — which implies only a 58% likelihood Clemson gets in — is a proactive thing to do. The value won’t be there when Clemson beats LSU to open the regular season.
And Clemson is a favorite in that game, according to the lookahead lines posted at most sports betting apps.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ model gives the Tigers a 37% chance of reaching 11 regular-season wins. If the Tigers do, indeed, beat LSU, that number looks even more favorable. Even more, I think Clemson is an interesting bet to go unbeaten in 2025.
On paper, coach Dabo Swinney has his best team since Trevor Lawrence left town. The Tigers lead the nation in returning production, according to Connelly’s tracking. Cade Klubnik should be better following another offseason with Garrett Riley. The receivers are promising. The defense should be stout under the direction of Tom Allen. And Clemson, according to SP+, has the 34th-ranked strength of schedule.
The Tigers ended last season 30th nationally in opponent-adjusted net EPA per play, per Game on Paper. The top 4 teams in that metric were the 4 semifinalists. Eight of the top 12 were Playoff participants. All the indicators I look for to project year-over-year growth are present with Clemson this offseason.
While the SEC and Big Ten might not have any issues placing a 10-win team in the field, it’s fair to wonder if an ACC team needs to go 11-1 in order to get in. I think that logic might apply to everyone but Clemson. The Tigers have a reputation that speaks for itself in the eyes of the selection committee, and 2 of their 4 nonconference games are against SEC opponents. If Clemson hits double-digit wins, it should be fine.
Clemson is also the outright favorite to win the ACC again. The Tigers have claimed 8 of the last 10 conference championships. That league still runs through Memorial Stadium.
If Clemson doesn’t earn the automatic bid, it either lost in the ACC title game or was the odd man out in a multi-team clump of 1-loss ACC squads. In either scenario, I see the Tigers having enough sway to get in.
Texas A&M to make the Playoff (+240 via BetMGM)
The number here implies a 29% chance the Aggies make the CFP. Do I think Texas A&M is a lock to make the Playoff? Absolutely not. I still have questions about the quarterback spot. But I think the Aggies have a better chance than 29%.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Aggies a 34% chance to make the postseason. A&M was 15th nationally in Connelly’s post-spring SP+ update. And while every SEC team is going to have to endure a gauntlet, Texas A&M’s is comparatively less. The Aggies get Florida and South Carolina at home. They don’t have to play in Jordan-Hare Stadium. And they get Texas after consecutive games against Georgia and Arkansas when the Longhorns could be a little bruised. (A&M plays Samford a week before traveling to Austin.)
What will we make of the Aggies if they go into South Bend on Sept. 13 and knock off Notre Dame? Don’t discount that possibility. I bet the Irish will be something like a 6.5-point favorite, but I don’t like teams that immediately move into a bye week after a season-opener. Notre Dame will do exactly that.
The Aggies are seventh nationally in returning production. The offensive engine is intact, with Marcel Reed back and presumably benefiting from an entire offseason working with the first team. I love the backfield duo of Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens. When healthy, there aren’t many programs with a better 1-2 punch at tailback. And with Reed’s ability on the ground, the Aggies project as a team opponents will hate to see coming. Games will be grueling, but that’s the style Mike Elko promises, right?
A&M ranked 36th nationally last season in opponent-adjusted EPA per play on defense, per Game on Paper. The pass defense dropped off late in the year, and A&M has to replace major contributors at the line of scrimmage. But fixing the defense was Elko’s top priority this offseason and I trust he’ll get things sorted out.
How much progress has Reed made as a passer? That’ll determine how much of a threat A&M is in the SEC. But A&M doesn’t face Alabama or Georgia in the regular season, making an at-large bid a real possibility.
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Utah to make the Playoff (+520 via FanDuel)
Discount Utah at your own risk. The Utes are coming off their worst season under coach Kyle Whittingham since 2013, but there’s reason to believe they can bounce right back to conference contention. They were the preseason favorites in the Big 12 last season before quarterback problems once again derailed their season.
In 2023, Cam Rising’s injury put the Utes in a bind because there just wasn’t another quarterback who was ready to step up and perform at a high enough level. The defense kept Utah afloat and they won 8 games anyway. In 2024, Rising’s lack of availability again put Utah into scramble mode. Somehow, the offense was even worse and Utah fell to 5-7.
The Utes ranked 127th out of 134 FBS teams in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. They had 22 giveaways in 12 games and were one of the worst units in the country on third down. They were also awful in the red zone.
Whittingham parted ways with offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig and brought Jason Beck in from New Mexico to run the offense. Beck brought former Lobos quarterback Devon Dampier with him, and that partnership provides optimism in 2025.
Per Game on Paper, Dampier led all FBS players in EPA per rushing attempt. He was a first-team All-Mountain West selection after leading the conference with 3,934 total yards of offense, 1,166 of which came on the ground. The 5-11 junior produced 19 rushing scores a year ago and now gets to play behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Utah might have 2 future first-round picks at the tackle spots, so this ground game has the potential to be dynamic.
Utah also added New Mexico’s No. 2 running back and its No. 2 receiver via the transfer portal, so Dampier should hit the ground running with the Utes.
Trust Morgan Scalley to field a good (or better) defense. Three of the top 4 tacklers return in 2025. Scalley has veterans to lean on, and good ones at that.
Plus, Utah gets the benefit of entering into the season as an underdog. They won’t be the preseason pick to win the Big 12. They might not even be a top-4 team in the Big 12’s preseason balloting. But Texas Tech, Arizona State, and Kansas State (likely 3 of your top 4) all have to travel to Salt Lake City to face Whittingham’s Utes.
Utah went 32-3 at home from 2018-23. During that same stretch, the Utes went 10-1 in home November games. Kansas State has to go to Rice-Eccles Stadium in November. Arizona State is 1-4 in its last 5 visits. The Utes might be a major problem in the Big 12, and a conference title appearance is certainly in the conversation.
UNLV to make the Playoff (+1800 via FanDuel)
The Rebels won 9 games and then 11 games to land Barry Odom the head coaching job at Purdue. Following his departure, the program saw 32 outgoing transfers. According to Connelly’s tracking, UNLV ranks 132nd in returning production out of 136 FBS teams this year. Three players ran for 500 yards or more and 2 of them are gone. Three players caught at least 15 passes last year and all 3 of them are gone. The top 2 quarterbacks are gone. Nine of the team’s top 10 tacklers are gone, including each of the top 6.
So, what did the Rebels add? Coach Dan Mullen is back, and he signed 42 incoming transfer players to go with 18 high school and junior college signees. Of the transfers, 26 came from power conference schools.
Mullen added former Utah running back Jaylon Glover, former Oklahoma running back Emeka Megwa, and former Michigan quarterback Alex Orji. Glover and Megwa are former 4-star prospects as recruits. We know what Orji can do as a runner, and Mullen will be able to use him in unique spots because the Rebels also signed former Virginia quarterback Anthony Colandrea out of the portal.
Colandrea started 11 times for Virginia last season, throwing for 2,125 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions as a true sophomore. A combination of Colandrea and Orji at quarterback might not work at a power school trying to contend, but the Mountain West is a different story.
UNLV might be able to out-talent teams. Orji could be a real difference-maker, taking advantage of defenses that just aren’t used to seeing his brand of size and athleticism. And Mullen has a proven track record for winning. Say what you will about his recruiting, Mullen has a .628 career winning percentage across 13 seasons in the SEC.
Odom won 20 games in 2 years at UNLV. In the 23 years prior to his arrival, the Rebels averaged 3.6 wins per season. It’s fair to say he overachieved, and therefore fair to think UNLV will slide back into being what it had been before. But I’m willing to roll the dice on Mullen and a remade roster that might just be more athletic than its peers.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
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