All of the college basketball eyes are on the Big East as No. 12 St. John’s travels to Storrs Friday to try and unseat No. 19 UConn and take the belt away from the back-to-back national champions. In a college basketball ecosystem that’s been overrun with change, the Big East has developed the closest thing to those raw emotions that are showcased in high school gyms across the country on Friday nights in the middle of winter: pure, unmitigated, glorious hate between two heated rivals.
Gampel Pavilion will be on fire.
Ahead of the most anticipated regular-season conference game of the Big East calendar, let’s parse the 11 teams into one of the following five tiers:
- Tier 1 – Elite title contenders: Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have no massive flaws and should be one of the favorites to win the championship.
- Tier 2 – Title dark horses: These teams have plenty of talent and would be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few things to clean up to win the championship.
- Tier 3 – NCAA Tournament bound: These teams are in good shape to make the Big Dance, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves: They aren’t winning the national championship.
- Tier 4 – Bubble-bound: These teams have work to do in conference play to feel good about themselves on Selection Sunday.
- Tier 5 – The basement: These teams have a very slim chance of making the Big Dance.
Let’s dive in:
St. John’s (Tier 2)
Current record: 20-3, 11-1 in Big East play
The skinny: Scoring on these Johnnies is a total chore. Rick Pitino has built one of the elite defenses in college basketball. St. John’s guards its yard and rips the ball away at will. St. John’s is so switchable and the activity level is off the charts. Big man Zuby Ejiofor can defend lead guards as good or better than any 5-man in the sport, and big wings like Aaron Scott, RJ Luis and Kadary Richmond can handle almost any assignment. When Deivon Smith is on the floor, St. John’s has that lightning-quick lead guard who refuses to be screened. Top-100 teams are shooting a minuscule 52% at the rim against St. John’s while also turning it over at a 21% clip. Takeaways and contested jumpers is an easy recipe for this group to thrive in transition.
St. John’s has NBA-caliber personnel and the defense to make a serious run in March, but it can’t win six in a row without an improved halfcourt offense. St. John’s sits outside the top-230 nationally in offensive efficiency in halfcourt scenarios. Getting Smith fully healthy should help with that. St. John’s offense is 9.0 points per 100 possessions better with Smith on the floor, per hoop-explorer. It needs his jolt of speed, playmaking and shooting.
Current record: 18-5, 9-3 in Big East play
The skinny: Marquette is still so clearly one of the top 20 teams in the country, but it has been leaking oil for a bit. The offense has cratered since the New Year all the way down to 85th nationally, per Bart Torvik. Shaka Smart could really use a “seniors die hard” final month from David Joplin who has been very streaky from downtown during Big East play.
Marquette is still a real threat to make a run in the NCAA Tournament because it has an identity, a star lead guard in Kam Jones and emerging role players like Chase Ross, Zaide Lowery and Royce Parham. But some of the interior defensive issues are getting hard to ignore. The rim defense and rebounding issues could hamstring this club from jumping into Tier 1 of the unquestionable National Championship contenders.
UConn (Tier 2)
Current record: 16-6, 8-3 in Big East play
The skinny: Prized freshman Liam McNeeley is expected to make his return in Friday’s highly-anticipated showdown against St. John’s. When healthy, UConn has a trio of snipers in Solo Ball, Alex Karaban and McNeeley that no other team in college basketball can rival and a scheme that generates unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s at a sky-high rate.
But some of the problems defensively might just not be fixable. Hurley and the UConn staff are the best game-planning unit in the country, but they do not have elite defensive personnel on that end and the routine scouting report mistakes have been killers. With the right draw, UConn can make a Final Four push –– remember, Alabama made the Final Four last year and its defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed –– but Hurley and Co. have to find more bite on the defensive end to win six straight.
Current record: 17-6, 10-2 in Big East play
The skinny: Greg McDermott deserves a ton of credit for not letting the wheels fall off after lead guard Pop Isaacs went down with a season-ending hip injury. Steven Ashworth has been great and Ryan Kalkbrenner is, well, Ryan Kalkbrenner. Creighton has a point guard-center combination that can go toe-to-toe with anybody. Plus, Jamiya Neal is playing the most efficient basketball of his career and freshman Jackson McAndrew needs about a half-an-inch of space to catch and fire.
Creighton is winning the math almost every night because Kalkbrenner can single-handedly make this defense highly competent. But the margin of error for this Creighton club is so thin. Getting to the second weekend would be a massive win for this group. Anything else feels like a cherry on top of Kalkbrenner’s last dance.
Current record: 14-9, 6-6 in Big East play
The skinny: A rash of injuries and brutal late-game luck has Xavier on the wrong side of the bubble with March less than three weeks away. Xavier has had plenty of moments where it looks like a NCAA Tournament club. Ryan Conwell and Zach Freemantle are tough covers, and Xavier plays a ton of lineups with five shooters on the floor at all times.
But Xavier’s lack of elite athleticism rears its ugly head on both ends of the floor. The lack of true rim defense is jarring. The clock is ticking on Xavier’s at-large hopes.
Current record: 13-10, 6-6 in Big East play
The skinny: Villanova owns one of the elite pick-and-roll offenses in the country. Jhamir Brickus has the rock on a string, and Eric Dixon is one of the premier pick-and-pop sharpshooters in college basketball. Ancillary pieces like Wooga Poplar, Jordan Longino, Enoch Boakye and Tyler Perkins have been efficient in their respective roles. It hasn’t just beat up on bad teams. Villanova’s offense rates 16th-best nationally against top-100 clubs, but the defense doesn’t take the ball away and cedes up way too many treys. If Villanova misses the NCAA Tournament, a defense that ranks 130th nationally will be the chief culprit.
Current record: 11-12, 5-7 in Big East play
The skinny: Not to make excuses for Kim English, but this Providence roster looks like a group that doesn’t have its alpha. Without Bryce Hopkins, guys have been thrust into bigger roles than English may have envisioned. The process, defensively, is still sound. Providence forces a boatload of tough, contested jumpers, but a 1-5 record in games decided by four or fewer points is brutal.
The Friars’ offense just has too many mistake-laden stretches, and Hopkins isn’t the only rotation player who has gone down. Jabri Abdur-Rahim will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Wesley Cardet has been banged up. Providence’s wing depth has disappeared in a hurry. Providence has little hope of an at-large bid, so it’ll need a magical run in the Big East Tournament.
Current record: 14-9, 5-7 in Big East play
The skinny: Georgetown’s defensive infrastructure is real. Micah Peavy is one of the best wing-stoppers in the country, and no one gets easy buckets at the rim against Georgetown when Thomas Sorber is on the floor. But Jayden Epps injury took the sails out of an offense that needed another dynamic shotmaker. Georgetown’s defense routinely generates takeaways and runouts, but its transition offense has been inefficient all year. Georgetown is shooting just 26% on transition 3-pointers. That’s nearly 10% below the national average. Epps would’ve helped out with that immensely.
Current record: 10-13, 3-9 in Big East play
The skinny: Butler’s individual talent jumps off the tape. Jahmyl Telfort is that big-bodied wing who can score at all three levels. Iowa transfer Patrick McCaffery has rediscovered his shooting stroke and sophomore point guard Finley Bizjack is starting to hoop in Big East play. But it’s a discouraging sign when you’re ninth in the Big East in defense despite having the No. 1 3-point defense in league play. Butler is getting gouged in the paint and can’t generate enough turnovers with its passive defensive gameplan.
Current record: 11-13, 2-11 in Big East play
The skinny: DePaul has taken some steps in the right direction, but point guard Conor Enright and big man David Skogman were two of the most important pieces on the roster and they’ve both missed real chunks of time. Enright is done for the year and Skogman is in a boot.
This isn’t the same ole DePaul. The process offensively is sound, and there are real pieces on this roster with eligibility next year, namely CJ Gunn, Jacob Meyer, Layden Blocker and Enright, of course. But Chris Holtmann has to upgrade its athleticism in the offseason, especially in the frontcourt, to survive in this league.
Current record: 7-17, 1-11 in Big East play
The skinny: Shaheen Holloway is owed some extra resources (a fancy word for NIL) and some 3-point luck. Seton Hall is shooting just 29% from downtown in Big East play. Its opponents are shooting an unconscionable 41%. That 12% gap is absurdly high and unsustainable. Unfortunately, it will be too little, too late. Injuries to Chaunce Jenkins, Dylan Addae-Wusu and Scotty Middleton have hampered an already underwhelming roster. If Seton Hall wants to compete in this landscape of college basketball, things clearly have to change behind the scenes.
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