First baseman Pete Alonso is still unsigned with just over a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, which naturally suggests he hasn’t yet found a contract offer to his liking. Reports from Jeff Passan of ESPN and Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggest that he is likely to pivot to a short-term deal with one or more opt-outs. Nightengale says eight teams, including the Blue Jays and Red Sox, have at least some level of interest. However, it’s unclear how interested those clubs are and the fact that Alonso remains available suggests they aren’t bowling him over with aggressive offers.
If Alonso ultimately pivots to a short-term deal with opt-outs, it wouldn’t come as a huge surprise. Alonso’s agent Scott Boras went down this road last offseason with Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. All four of them found markets below their expectations and remained unsigned beyond the holidays. Each of them eventually agreed to short-term deals with an opt-out or two, with slight variations for each individual.
There were reasons to expect Alonso could follow that path. Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer from the Mets in the summer of 2023 valued at $157MM over seven years. He still had one arbitration season remaining at that time and ultimately earned $20.5MM. That means he was effectively being offered $137MM for six free agent seasons and turned it down. In November of 2023, it was reported that he was looking to top the recent deals for Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson, who signed for $162MM and $168MM respectively.
But the league has generally shied away from one-dimensional right-handed-hitting sluggers like Alonso. His defense isn’t especially well regarded and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. His walk rates are decent but not exceptional. Alonso has huge home run power but Freeman and Olson rank higher than him in terms of glovework and drawing free passes.
While Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols each got over $200MM, those deals were both over a decade ago. More recently, Paul Goldschmidt’s $130MM extension from the Cardinals is the best deal for a righty-swinging first baseman. Kris Bryant got $182MM as a defensively-limited outfielder but that deal turned sour very quickly. Other bat-first guys like J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos signed for the low nine figures.
Alonso also hit free agency on a bit of a down note. He had hit .261/.349/.535 for a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but slashed .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons for a 122 wRC+. That’s still above average offense but a team might wonder if Alonso could reverse that trend going into his age-30 season. He also rejected a qualifying offer and is therefore tied to the associated penalties for any club that signs him.
Taking all that into consideration, it seemed possible that there would be a discrepancy between Alonso’s asking price and what teams would be willing to offer. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR considered predicting Alonso for a deal similar to what Bellinger ultimately signed with the Cubs last offseason, which was $80MM over three years with two opt-outs. That seemed too bold a stance to take at the start of the offseason, so we backed down and went with $125MM over five years, though noting that the Bellinger path was a real possibility. Last month, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that such a deal was becoming increasingly likely and this week’s reporting adds to that.
Returning to the Mets is still a possibility, as they haven’t done anything to fill Alonso’s spot at first base. It’s been speculated that they could move Mark Vientos over from third, since his defense at the hot corner isn’t strong and he’s capable of playing first. They could then cover third base internally with a combination of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña, or perhaps an external addition like Alex Bregman. However, the door to Alonso returning is still open.
Other clubs have been tied to Alonso, but the fits are mostly a bit awkward. The Yankees reportedly had Alonso on their list of backup plans for the event they didn’t sign Juan Soto but they eventually signed Goldschmidt to cover first base. The Giants could perhaps be a fit but they have Bryce Eldridge waiting in the wings. The Angels have reportedly considered bringing in Alonso and moving incumbent first baseman Nolan Schanuel to the outfield, a position he hasn’t played as a professional.
The Jays and Red Sox are also fairly inelegant fits. Boston already has a corner infield logjam with Rafael Devers at third, Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a candidate for regular run as the designated hitter. Since Devers is a weak defender at third, they have considered adding someone like Bregman or Nolan Arenado and moving Devers to first, which has led to Casas and Yoshida being in trade rumors. Signing Alonso would jam this situation even further and make it harder to get Devers off third. Perhaps that wouldn’t be such a big deal on a short-term deal that the club expects him to opt out of, but it can’t be assured that a player will eventually use his opt-out. The Cubs recently signed Bellinger with this logic and saw him decide to stick around, which led to a salary-dump trade to the Yankees.
The Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as their everyday first baseman. He is capable of playing third base but only has 14 appearances there over the past five years, most of those coming as the Jays were playing out the string in 2024. With Guerrero slated for free agency next winter, perhaps he and Alonso could share first base and DH for a year with Alonso taking over first in 2026, though it would be a clunky fit for the 2025 season. The Jays also hope to extend Guerrero, which would be complicated by bringing Alonso into the fold.
Financially, RosterResource has the Jays just over $10MM away from last year’s payroll and the competitive balance tax, but it seems they still have some money to spend. They were reportedly involved with Corbin Burnes before he signed with the Diamondbacks and have an offer out to Anthony Santander. RosterResource has the Red Sox almost $30MM shy of the CBT and they might even be willing to cross the line this year.
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