ESPN relaunched its Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections for the 2025 season on Tuesday, and Boise State checked in at No. 40 in the new ratings.
The Broncos are the second-highest Group of 5 team in the rankings behind Tulane, which sits at No. 36. The Green Wave won the American Athletic Conference title in 2022 and fell in the AAC championship game each of the past two seasons.
FPI projects Boise State to win 9.6 games during the 2025 season with 3.1 losses. FPI gives the Broncos a 1.9 percent chance to have a perfect regular-season record and a 25.2 percent chance to make a return trip to the College Football Playoff.
Tulane (24.3 percent chance to make the CFP) and fellow Mountain West Conference contender UNLV (No. 42 FPI, 21.3 percent chance to make the CFP) are the only Group of 5 schools inside the top 60 of the FPI.
“Even after losing record-setting running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos remain the most likely Group of 5 team to make the playoff — though Tulane (despite losing quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes) and UNLV (coming off an 11-win season, but quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has moved on) aren’t far behind,” ESPN’s Neil Paine wrote.
“With several contenders bunched together and no clear juggernaut, the G5 race for a playoff spot is something to keep a close eye on — including its ripple effects on the rest of the bracket.”
In May, Boise State came in at No. 33 nationally in ESPN’s SP+ projections. The ESPN SP+ is based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.
The Broncos were one of three Group of 5 teams included in the top 50 of the SP+, well above No. 48 Tulane (American Athletic Conference) and No. 49 James Madison (Sun Belt).
The highest-ranked Group of 5 team in the final CFP rankings receives an automatic bid to the playoff.
Boise State finished 12-2 overall last season, captured a second straight MWC title and reached the CFP for the first time in program history.
The Broncos will open the 2025 season on Aug. 28 at South Florida and return home the following week to take on Eastern Washington (Sept. 5). The Broncos also have non-conference games against Appalachian State (Sept. 27 at Albertsons Stadium) and Notre Dame (Oct. 4 at Notre Dame Stadium).
The Irish are ranked No. 9 in the updated FPI.
Boise State’s MWC home games are against New Mexico (Oct. 11), UNLV (Oct. 18), Fresno State (Nov. 1) and Colorado State (Nov. 22) with road trips to Air Force (Sept. 20), Nevada (Oct. 24), San Diego State (Nov. 15) and Utah State (Nov. 28).
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