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Alex Bregman (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
While the Red Sox are coming off a third straight disappointing season—including their fifth non-playoff appearance in six years—there’s no question they’re deeper with young position players than they’ve been in a long time.
That’s a strong foundation to go along with superstar Rafael Devers. Still, the team’s most recent attempts at signing premium free agents (Trevor Story, Masataka Yoshida) haven’t had the return on investment needed during this retooling period.
That’s why Boston and Alex Bregman continue to be linked to one another. While Bregman isn’t a perfect roster fit, given Devers’ presence at third, he’d be another impact hitter for a lineup in need of it. Currently, the Red Sox rank 24th in projected offensive WAR. With Bregman, they’d shoot up to a little above league average.
Of course, Bregman’s Alex Cora connection and the Green Monster are also reasons to match the two sides. To better understand the impact Bregman’s addition could make, let’s dive into the overall profiles of the lineup as presently constructed:
The above chart uses Steamer to understand the players under contract who will contribute to Boston’s scoring in 2025.
Rafael Devers
Unsurprisingly, Devers leads in both wRC+ and WAR. The perennial slugger was better than ever for most of last summer, slashing .304/.383/.609 (167 wRC+) through Aug. 2. For context, Devers’ best full-season wRC+ is 140 in 2022.
Over the next six weeks, however, he recorded just a .586 OPS before being shut down in September due to soreness in both shoulders. He hit .164/.262/.178 with zero home runs in his final 20 games. Luckily, an end-of-season MRI found no structural damage, and surgery was avoided.
Jarren Duran
It’s strange to see Jarren Duran projected for the same wRC+ as Rob Refsnyder, but looking at the WAR column paints a more complete picture of the value Duran provides. Using Statcast’s “Extra Bases Taken” Run-Value leaderboard, only Corbin Carroll was more valuable than Duran in 2024. The metric has data from 2016, and Duran’s nine “advances” last year are the second-most recorded, again trailing Carroll. This backs up the eye test of watching Red Sox games—Duran is an efficient maniac on the bases.
At the plate, it feels clear he’s reached a new level in the past two years. Duran has never made the best swing decisions, but early in his career, he relied on an aggressive approach to have a shot at doing damage. He has since used much-improved contact skills to impact the ball more consistently:
Steamer’s 111 projected wRC+ is far below the 126 mark he’s posted over the past two years, as the system is likely still holding 2022 against him in a way that might make sense to override manually. For reality purposes, it also helps that Duran morphed into a genuinely elite defender last season. His 6.7 fWAR from 2024 is the fifth-highest total by a Red Sox position player since 2001.
Triston Casas
Triston Casas has missed 129 games due to injury over the past two years. The jury technically remains out on how good he can (and ultimately will) become. What’s clear is what he needs to do to make it happen. Casas has thunderous raw power, as one would expect from a lefthanded slugger who can homer to the opposite field in San Francisco. A keen batting eye is another plus, but it leads to a certain passivity in his approach:
The above percentiles are based on Robert Orr’s metrics, which tell us Casas might benefit from being more aggressive on pitches he can drive. Even if he doesn’t break out in 2025, Steamer projects him to hit like a top 10 first baseman.
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu is another player who, like Duran, is more valuable than what a strict examination of wRC+ might suggest. This is due to rating in the 91st percentile in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric. Right Field at Fenway is challenging, and Abreu played it well in 2024.
While he chipped in eight stolen bases, Abreu isn’t precisely a base-stealing threat. However, he added value by running the bases. It’s another way his sum of parts is more valuable than any one skill.
Abreu can get to his power at the plate thanks to a heavy emphasis on pulled fly balls. Fenway isn’t the best park for that profile. Per Statcast’s xHR by Park metric, Boston is tied for the fewest homers for Abreu with 14. Despite this, he’s still performed at an above-average level.
Yoshida, Story & Ceddanne Rafaela
It’s unclear what to expect from Yoshida this season, but his DH-clogging presence complicates matters now and in the future. His .775 OPS through two years has been disappointing, and he’ll enter this season after shoulder surgery. The contact skills are nice, but there needs to be more production in the future, especially with no baserunning or fielding value being contributed.
Story’s 82 wRC+ is jarring at first sight, but it’s a reminder of how uncertain his outlook is going forward. Injuries have been a major culprit to his recent inconsistencies. Still, even if he gets back to being league-average with the stick, Story could be another member of this lineup who contributes extra value on the bases and in the field. His bat has always been streaky. The Red Sox need him to play shortstop every day with good defense. Any well-timed hot streaks are a bonus.
Ceddanne Rafaela has one of the most unique profiles in the majors. He can play shortstop and center field and hits 15 homers despite a league-worst chase rate. He stole 19 bases but had the eighth-most outs created while basestealing. Given his inconsistencies at the plate, improving his base running would benefit him, as discussed with Abreu and others.
This is a player the Red Sox have invested in continuing to improve, given his $50M extension from last April. That also buys them time. Rafaela is still developing in the majors, and we’re unlikely to see him peak until 2-3 years from now. At present, he’s a serviceable starting center fielder, but combining him with Connor Wong puts pressure on the remaining seven spots in the batting order. If Kristian Campbell and/or Roman Anthony earn everyday lineup spots in 2025, it’ll most likely impact Rafaela’s playing time. Even if that happens, he’ll become a strong fourth outfielder capable of filling in at the middle infield in a pinch—a uniquely valuable trait.
Additional Reinforcements
Speaking of Campbell and Anthony, Steamer views them as immediately above-average at the plate. It’s likely other projection systems will see that as a bit optimistic, but talented rookies will always carry a particular upside, even if that upside isn’t a given to be reached. Campbell was our 2024 Minor League Player of the Year. Anthony ended the season as our No. 1 prospect. These are two immensely talented players who carry a franchise-changing upside. Even so, it’s still best for the 2025 Red Sox if they aren’t reliant on an immediate impact from either.
Elsewhere, David Hamilton and Vaughn Grissom could contribute to the second base mix depending on how Bregman shakes out. Hamilton is such a good base stealer that he makes an ideal bench player. Similar to Rafaela, he’s still developing at the big-league level.
Grissom has always hit in the minors, so he needs to be given an extended opportunity to do so in the majors at some point. After last year’s performance, he’ll need to force his next opportunity through strong play, regardless of his level.
Marcelo Mayer projects for the least amount of playing time of everyone mentioned so far, but he remains a top prospect capable of a ceiling outcome at any point. In 77 games as a 21-year-old at Double-A, he hit .307/.370/.480 with a strikeout rate under 20%. His upside remains very high.
It’s clear Boston has stockpiled an impressive depth of young position players, and there’s certainly an upside to several of them outperforming Steamer’s expectations. Ultimately, it’s a group deep in above-average players but lacking one final star. Perhaps Cambell or Anthony become one, but that’s a lot of pressure to put on a rookie.
Signing Bregman raises uncomfortable questions about who plays where, including the team’s $331M franchise cornerstone. However, it remains worth pursuing if the front office can get him at a reasonable price. Based on recent history, it’ll likely come down to if they can get him at their price.
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