Breaking Down How Is Alex Bregman Still Somehow A Free Agent

Players who compile nearly 40 bWAR ahead of their 31st birthday certainly do not grow on trees.

When you add a .789 OPS with 19 home runs in the postseason while playing Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, then you are not walking past that tree and letting the fruit rot.

So, why has Alex Bregman still not received a deal, just weeks ahead of pitchers and catchers reporting to camp? The price of apples cannot be high enough for him to go unsigned, right?

If you flashback to the beginning of the MLB offseason, it was clear that former Yankee and future Met Juan Soto was going to determine the start of free agency. When he surprisingly signed just weeks into the winter, all of the other free-agent options knew it was their time to be wined and dined.

Since Soto’s historic signing, position players like Willy Adames, Anthony Santander, and Christian Walker have all agreed to multi-year deals, leaving Bregman behind.

Is there a reason for the league’s hesitation for the former Astro, or is this simply another example of Scott Boras’ game of patience?

After nine years in Houston, third baseman Alex Bregman became yet another pivotal piece of the Astros dynasty to depart (unless Houston joins the sweepstakes unexpectedly).

In his career, Bregman held a .272/.366/.483 slashline, which is good enough for a 132 OPS+. Playing just under 145 games per season in the eight years since he became a mainstay in the Astros lineup, Bregman carried a .968 career fielding percentage at the hot corner, and average a 5.8 bWAR per 162 games.

While he may not be the star third baseman then most anticipated after his 2018 and 2019 seasons, where Bregman finished in the top-five in MVP voting in both seasons, the combination of consistency and playoff success has made the LSU alum a valuable piece of their dynasty.

While being a part of the Astros dynasties instantly affiliates his name with the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal, this factor does not seem to be the reason for team’s hesitating to offer Bregman a contract.

It is safe to say that once Carlos Correa earned his free agency deal, teams could choose to look past anyone who was a part of that team when signing or trading for them.

The slow but consistent falling of his offensive numbers on the other hand have a significant impact on why Bregman is still looking for a home.

Since his age 24 and 25 seasons, where Bregman had a combined .970 OPS in 313 games, his OPS has steadily dropped closer to league average.

• 2020 – .801 OPS | 117 OPS+

*(in only 42 games due to the COVID-19 shortened-season)

• 2021 – .777 OPS | 113 OPS+
• 2022 – .820 OPS | 134 OPS+
• 2023 – .804 OPS | 122 OPS+
• 2024 – .768 OPS | 118 OPS+

While these are certainly cause for concern, paired alongside a potential offensive disadvantage due to leaving the comfort of the Crawford Boxes in Minute Maid Park, they would likely be reasons for contract offers being less than Boras is expecting for his client.

Though this could likely be the reason for Bregman not being signed, it feels as though we are getting close to the point where the difference in figures is not worth potentially delaying your start to the 2025 season.

Plus, the advanced metric say that Bregman did not have as good of a season offensively as he should have, placing 94th-percentile or higher in whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and squared up percentage.

Defensively, Bregman has not shown signs of his age at all, as he just completed the best year of his career. Bregman led the league with a .972 fielding percentage, 23 double plays, and was in the 91st percentile in terms of outs above average. This all led to the first Gold Glove of his career.

So, while it may not be the hottest stove on Bregman’s market, it feels like another case of Boras ensuring his clients will have their best deal in the coming weeks, leaving them in limbo for the entire offseason.

With Pete Alonso also waiting for his new home stadium, or instead a likely homecoming with the Mets, it seems as though Boras is leveraging his two best assets, who are now the two best assets on the entire market.

While this limits the pool of teams in on Bregman compared to if he signed at the beginning of the offseason frenzy, teams like the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, or Kansas City Royals would see a lot of value in a proven playoff performer joining their clubhouse.

With the market not featuring many position players at the offensive level or Bregman and Alonso, it is difficult to see where their financial figures will land, as Adames is the only position player outside of Soto to earn over $100 million guaranteed this offseason. So the two sluggers will be able to pick their price.

However, a situation like Jordan Montgomery’s free agency will always be the fear when waiting for a team’s desperation to raise your capital.

So we will see how long Bregman is willing to push the envelope, and more significantly we can see if another failed waiting game will bring an end to Scott Boras’ signature negotiation tactic.

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